US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3410

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003410 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/25/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, TW 
SUBJECT: PFP CLAIMS IT IS STILL IN THE GAME 
 
REF: A. TAIPEI 03031 
 
     B. TAIPEI 03299 
 
Classified By: AIT Deputy Director David Keegan, Reasons: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  A confidante of People First Party (PFP) 
leader James Soong told AIT that the party has emerged from 
an early October KMT attempt at a hostile merger with renewed 
vigor.  PFP Spokesman Daniel Hwang admitted that the party 
was close to collapse in the final days of the registration 
period for the December 11 Legislative Yuan (LY) election. 
He also acknowledged that Soong and other senior party 
leaders had been mentally disengaged for the past six months. 
 However, Hwang said that Soong has regained his senses and 
asserted that the KMT now has no choice but to work with the 
PFP if it wants a shot at maintaining a Pan-Blue LY majority 
in December.  Other PFP insiders are less upbeat, noting that 
the party remains deeply divided internally and distrustful 
of the KMT.  End Summary. 
 
PFP's Near-Death Experience 
--------------------------- 
 
2. (C) James Soong confidante Daniel Hwang (Yih-jiau) told 
AIT October 20 that the People First Party (PFP) has overcome 
its crisis of confidence and that the party is heading into 
the final stretch of the LY election with renewed vigor and 
energy.  Hwang admitted that pressure on the party was 
enormous after PFP Legislators Lee Ching-an and Lee Ching-hua 
publicly called for merger with the KMT by October 10.  He 
alleged that the situation was made worse by "some elements 
of the KMT" who wanted to marginalize the PFP by portraying 
the party as obstructing Pan-Blue unity.  However, Hwang 
said, PFP members stood firm by their commitment to the 
party, and no open rebellion occurred.  He said October 10 
was the watershed, and when 41 LY candidates registered by 
the October 12 deadline to run under the PFP banner, everyone 
in the PFP knew they had "braved the storm."  Hwang said that 
party Chairman Soong has also finally emerged from the mental 
haze that he has lived in since March 20 and is ready to lead 
the party into the December 11 election. 
 
3. (C) After the KMT's failed attempt at a "hostile takeover" 
by marginalizing Soong, Hwang told AIT that the PFP came back 
with a proposal to finalize a negotiated merger by the end of 
October.  While the KMT rejected the initiative, Hwang 
pointed out that the KMT has done the math and now realizes 
that even if every one of the 85 KMT and New Party nominees 
got elected, they would still be short of a working majority. 
 Hwang asserted that 31 of the 41 PFP nominees are in safe 
seats, and that with those numbers, the KMT and PFP 
supporters cannot abandon the PFP.  He said that the KMT and 
PFP expect to sign a letter of intent to complete the 
integration by February 2005.  Hwang explained that such a 
letter would give Pan-Blue supporters the impression that 
there is cooperation, stability and unity among the KMT, PFP, 
and New Party.  He admitted that the Pan-Blue does not have a 
LY election campaign chairman, and that each party has its 
own campaign mechanism, but he dismissed campaign 
coordination as unnecessary.  He said, "our unity is symbolic 
and that is enough," adding "Chinese people are not 
meticulous." 
 
Resurrected or Placed on Life-Suport? 
------------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) Hwang's confidence in his party, however, is not 
shared by many of his colleagues.  Many of James Soong's 
other advisors find it difficult to talk to Soong these days, 
saying that Soong prone to burst into fits of rage.  PFP 
Public Affairs Deputy Director Liao Wen-chang told AIT that 
he tries to go through Soong's wife whenever he needs to 
report something to Soong.  Former PFP International Affairs 
Director Raymond Wu told AIT that PFP Vice Chairman Chang 
Chau-hsiung has totally detached himself from party 
operations, and Secretary General Tsai Chung-hsiung has 
returned to the United States disgusted with intra-party 
infighting.  Wu told AIT that Acting Secretary General Chin 
Ching-sheng, now charged with running party operations, is a 
former KMT "organization man" who is not trusted by Soong and 
is not part of his inner circle.  Although Chin has been 
designated as the liaison to the KMT, Wu said he does not 
know how he can fulfill his duties since he has had a 
long-standing feud with KMT Secretary General Lin Fong-cheng, 
the PFP's main point of contact.  As for the PFP's activist 
LY Caucus Leader Liu Wen-hsiung, Wu said "he is nothing more 
than a gangster." 
 
5. (C) When pressed on the PFP's problems, Hwang admitted 
that things could be better.  Hwang acknowledged that Soong 
remains "bitter and angry," but Hwang said he has worked very 
hard to calm Soong down and Soong is "better now."  Hwang 
said that Vice Chairman Chang's detachment stemmed from his 
opposition to merger talks with the KMT and attributed Tsai's 
disappearance to the SecGen's inability to get along with 
others in the party leadership.  While acknowledging that 
acting SecGen Chin has many drawbacks, Hwang asserted that he 
is loyal and obedient, adding that "these qualities are good 
enough." 
 
Comment: Party of Convenience 
----------------------------- 
 
6. (C) The PFP as an organized political force has largely 
ceased to exist in the wake of the physical and/or mental 
disengagement of its senior leadership.  Thus far, this has 
not eliminated the PFP from contention in the upcoming 
election.  Those PFP candidates with high personal name 
recognition, perhaps not Hwang's 31 but at least two dozen, 
appear to be holding ground in public opinion polls, making a 
New Party-style collapse unlikely.  However, without strong 
direction from the top, the PFP has evolved into an 
incoherent mix of moderates like spokesman Hwang, radical 
bomb-throwers like Caucus Leader Liu, and non-ideological 
political operators like acting SecGen Chin.  What held these 
disparate groups together in the past was their shared 
loyalty to Soong and expectations that this loyalty would 
result in rewards once the Pan-Blue came to power.  With 
Soong's political career in tatters, this contract has broken 
down and for many in the PFP, the question of returning to 
the KMT, likely on KMT terms, is now only a matter of when, 
not if. 
PAAL