US embassy cable - 04THEHAGUE2777

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 002777 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/28/2014 
TAGS: PREL, NL, EUN 
SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/EU: DUTCH EXPECTATIONS FOR NOV 2 GAERC 
AND NOV 5 EUROPEAN COUNCIL 
 
REF: A. THE HAGUE 2757 
 
     B. STATE 228399 
     C. STATE 230353 
 
Classified By: POLCOUNS ANDREW SCHOFER FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). 
 
 1. (U) Summary. MFA Deputy Directors Joep Wijnands 
(Political Affairs, European Correspondent) and Dirk 
Oldenburg (European Integration) briefed emboffs Oct 28th on 
expectations for the Nov 2 GAERC and the Nov 5 European 
Council.  The GAERC will focus primarily on preparations for 
the Council, so the agendas will be similar.  The Council 
will be briefed on the Wim Kok report to the European 
Commission on the status of the Lisbon agenda (Europe to be 
the most competitive economy by 2010) and have a discussion 
as preparation for the Lisbon agenda mid-term review at the 
Spring Council.  The Dutch expect considerable time to be 
spent on the Justice and Home Affairs (JHA) multiannual 
program.  On Iraq, police training and other support elements 
will be discussed.  On Iran, the EU will consider UNSC 
referral if Iran does not suspend enrichment activities.  On 
the Middle East, the Dutch saw Israel's Gaza withdrawal 
decision as accelerating the road map time line. 
Preparations for the Russia summit will also be on the 
agenda; the Dutch suggested these are becoming more 
difficult. The Council is expected to make decisions on 
support packages for Iraq and Sudan. End summary. 
 
Iraq 
---- 
 
2. (C) The EU will offer Iraqi PM Allawi on November 5 a 
package of "concrete support measures," drawn up by the 
Commission on the basis of two exploratory missions.  The 
package will be reviewed by the GAERC and approved by the 
Council.  In a separate meeting, Wijnands told Poloff that 
the EU wants to "tell Iraq and the world" that the EU 
supports Iraq.  In this regard, he expected that the EU will 
agree to train police and issue a declaration from the 
Council on developing EU-Iraqi relations, possibly including 
mention of a prospective trade agreement and other measures. 
 
3. (C) Wijands (protect) said that the Dutch have prepared 
text for an EU agreement to offer training inside Iraq as 
well as outside the country.  He noted that the French and 
Germans have circulated an alternate text, however, to 
provide training only in Jordan.  Wijnands said that before 
the Iraqi elections the EU will send a team to Iraq to assess 
the security situation.  If security is adequate, then he 
predicted that the EU would agree to some training in-country 
despite French and German reservations. 
 
Sudan 
----- 
 
4. (SBU) The GAERC will review and the Council will approve 
an assistance package based on the African Union request for 
support of an expanded mission to Darfur.  Ministers will not 
discuss sanctions (they have already been "prepared") but 
will consider additional measures to "keep up the pressure," 
e.g., supporting the UN proposal for a no-fly zone in Darfur. 
 
Iran 
---- 
 
5. (C) There will be discussion of the state of play but no 
decisions at either the GAERC or the Council, according to 
Wijnands.  Council decisions will continue to be driven by 
the discussions continue between the EU-3 and Iran. 
Depending on Iranian actions, Wijnands did not rule out a 
possible referral to the UNSC, although he stressed that even 
in that case the EU would try to convince Iran that "they are 
not slamming the door on continuing dialogue." 
 
Middle East 
----------- 
 
6. (C) Over dinner, Solana will present new long and 
short-term proposals for EU engagement in the Middle East, 
Wijnands said, disavowing knowledge of details.  The EU 
realizes, he said, that the end game may come quicker than 
expected from the timeline in the road map.  In the short 
term, the EU wants to find ways to support the Palestinians 
with security, civilian police, and local elections scheduled 
in December.  Long term, he expects Solana to propose new 
ways (unknown at present) for the EU to engage once Israel 
has disengaged from Gaza.  He noted that the Israeli decision 
this week had so far had no effect on the ground;  actual 
implementation would be key. 
 
Lisbon agenda 
------------- 
 
7. (SBU) Oldenburg claimed the Dutch have not yet seen the 
final Kok report but understand it will have "serious 
conclusions" for the Council to consider.  Kok will brief his 
report, and the Council will also be briefed on the 
Commission's impressions of the report.  (According to 
Oldenburg, the points will be read by Prodi, substituting for 
Barroso.)  Oldenburg said the Dutch have high hopes for a 
substantive and engaged discussion at the Council level; 
response thus far to Dutch preparations for the Council have 
been encouraging.  Oldenburg cited German Chancellor 
Schroeder's planned introduction to the discussion as an 
example. 
 
JHA multiannual program 
----------------------- 
 
8. (SBU) The Dutch hope to be able to resolve outstanding 
problems on the JHA multiannual program left over from the 
JHA Ministerial Council last week.  These are the rules for 
qualified majority voting, the time-line for reaching a 
unified EU rule on asylum, and the possible mention of a 
future European prosecutor in the plan.  Oldenburg said that 
the latter point may be left out, but the others should be 
resolvable. 
 
Other 
----- 
 
9. (SBU) Other topics at the GAERC will include Somalia, 
Guinea-Bissau, Belarus, African Great Lakes and preparation 
for the Russia summit.  Of these, only the Russia summit is 
expected to generate any discussion at the Council.  The 
others are on the agenda because individual member states 
asked to make a point. 
 
10. (SBU) The Council had intended to discuss "communicating 
Europe" (specifically, selling the constitution treaty, but 
more broadly, trying to connect European with their Union) 
with the new Commission president Barroso.  Since Prodi will 
attend instead, discussion on this topic will be minimal. 
This is the one area where the Dutch admit that the working 
of the Council is affected by the Barroso-European Parliament 
episode; in other statements, Dutch officials have made clear 
that they do not consider this a "presidency" issue. 
SOBEL