US embassy cable - 01HARARE3527

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 003527 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 11/23/11 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, PINR 
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR, ZANU-PF SECRETARY OF INFORMATION NATHAN 
SHAMUYARIRA DISCUSS ZDERA, POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS 
 
REF:  A) HARARE 3463  B) HARARE 3400 
 
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON.  REASONS: 
1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1.  (C) IN A NOVEMBER 20 MEETING WITH THE AMBASSADOR, SENIOR ZANU- 
PF OFFICIAL NATHAN SHAMUYARIRA SAID THE GOZ WANTS TO MAINTAIN GOOD 
RELATIONS WITH THE USG, AND HE URGED THAT THE ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY 
AND RECOVERY ACT (ZDERA), CURRENTLY BEFORE THE HOUSE OF 
REPRESENTATIVES, BE TAKEN "OFF THE AGENDA."  THE AMBASSADOR SAID 
CONCRETE IMPROVEMENTS ON OUR ISSUES OF CONCERN -- RESTORATION OF 
THE RULE OF LAW, A REDUCTION IN POLITICAL VIOLENCE, FREE AND FAIR 
ELECTIONS -- ARE ESSENTIAL PRECURSORS TO AN IMPROVED RELATIONSHIP 
WITH US.  SHAMUYARIRA INSISTED THAT INTERNATIONAL ELECTION 
OBSERVERS WILL BE INVITED AFTER THE ELECTION DATES ARE ANNOUNCED, 
BUT HE STRESSED THAT "LONG-HAIRED SCANDINAVIANS" TRYING TO TEACH 
US ABOUT DEMOCRACY WOULD NOT BE PERMITTED TO PARTICIPATE.  HE 
CLAIMED THE RULING PARTY IS URGING ITS SUPPORTERS TO CONDUCT A 
PEACEFUL CAMPAIGN, BUT LAMENTED THAT THEY MIGHT BE DIFFICULT TO 
CONTROL IN THE FACE OF PROVOCATIONS FROM THE OPPOSITION MDC.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
ZDERA 
----- 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03527  01 OF 03  231104Z 
2.  (C) IN A NOVEMBER 20 CONVERSATION WITH THE AMBASSADOR, ZANU-PF 
ELDER STATESMAN -- AND THE RULING PARTY'S SECRETARY FOR 
INFORMATION -- NATHAN SHAMUYARIRA FIRST RAISED THE ZIMBABWE 
DEMOCRACY AND ECONOMIC RECOVERY ACT (ZDERA), CURRENTLY BEFORE THE 
U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES.  SHAMUYARIRA SAID THE GOVERNMENT 
WANTED TO "GET ZDERA OFF THE AGENDA" AND HE THOUGHT PRESIDENT 
MUGABE MIGHT SOON WRITE TO PRESIDENT BUSH EXPRESSING HIS CONCERNS 
ABOUT THIS PENDING LEGISLATION.   THE AMBASSADOR NOTED THAT ZDERA 
WAS AS MUCH AN INCENTIVES BILL AS A SANCTIONS BILL, AND THAT IT 
RECOMMENDS THE IMPOSITION OF TARGETED PERSONAL SANCTIONS IN THE 
ABSENCE OF PROGRESS ON RULE OF LAW AND HUMAN RIGHTS CONCERNS, AND 
FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS.  THE AMBASSADOR SAID PRESIDENT MUGABE WAS 
WELCOME TO SEND A LETTER BUT HE EMPHASIZED THAT CONCRETE ACTIONS 
ADDRESSING THE AREAS OF CONCERN SPECIFIED IN THE BILL WOULD CARRY 
MUCH GREATER WEIGHT WITH THE U.S. CONGRESS. 
 
U.S.-ZIMBABWE RELATIONSHIP 
-------------------------- 
 
3. (C) SHAMUYARIRA SAID THE GOZ WANTS TO KEEP RELATIONS WITH THE 
USG "ON AN EVEN KEEL," AS THE UNITED STATES HAS ALWAYS USED ITS 
INFLUENCE IN ZIMBABWE CONSTRUCTIVELY.  HE SAID THE BRITISH ARE 
"AGAINST US" AND HAVE CONVINCED THE EUROPEAN UNION TO TAKE THE 
SAME TACK.  THE GOZ HOPED THE USG WOULD DISTANCE ITSELF FROM THAT 
APPROACH BY DROPPING ZDERA AND BY MAKING A GESTURE TOWARD MUGABE. 
(NOTE: HE DID NOT ELABORATE ON WHAT KIND OF GESTURE MIGHT BE 
HELPFUL.  END NOTE.)  HE URGED THAT PRESIDENT BUSH "PLEASE, 
PLEASE" NOT PURSUE A CONFRONTATIONAL APPROACH WITH PRESIDENT 
MUGABE, AS IT WOULD NOT BE PRODUCTIVE. 
 
4.  (C) THE AMBASSADOR SAID POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND RULE OF LAW ARE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  03527  01 OF 03  231104Z 
MAJOR ISSUES FOR THE UNITED STATES, AND PROGRESS OR LACK OF 
PROGRESS ON THOSE FRONTS WOULD BE KEY DETERMINANTS OF OUR 
BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP.  IT IS IMPORTANT THAT OUR TWO GOVERNMENTS 
MAINTAIN OPEN CHANNELS OF COMMUNICATION, BUT HE SAID HE WANTED TO 
MAKE IT VERY CLEAR THAT THE MOST IMPORTANT THING FOR THE UNITED 
STATES IS TO SEE CONCRETE IMPROVEMENTS ON THE GROUND. 
UNFORTUNATELY, THE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT HAS DETERIORATED SINCE 
THE MID-OCTOBER VISIT OF AF PDAS MARK BELLAMY.   THE RECENT 
POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN BULAWAYO (REFTELS), IN PARTICULAR, HAD 
CAUSED US SERIOUS CONCERN.  THE AMBASSADOR NOTED THAT HE HAD SEEN 
MULTIPLE ACCOUNTS THAT WAR VETERANS BURNED DOWN THE MDC OFFICE 
WHILE POLICE STOOD BY AND DID NOTHING.  THAT IS THE SORT OF 
ACTION, HE SAID, WHICH GARNERS INTERNATIONAL HEADLINES AND MAKES 
IT MORE LIKELY THAT ZDERA WILL PASS.  IF THAT REPORT IS TRUE AND 
POLICE DID NOT TAKE ANY ACTION, SHAMUYARIRA REPLIED, THEY SHOULD 
BE REPRIMANDED.  POLICE, HE ASSERTED, SHOULD BE NEUTRAL AND DO 
EVERYTHING IN THEIR POWER TO MAINTAIN LAW AND ORDER, REGARDLESS OF 
WHO VIOLATES IT. 
 
LAND, VIOLENCE, ELECTIONS 
------------------------- 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ7306 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  03527  02 OF 03  231104Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  INL-00   DODE-00  DOTE-00 
      WHA-00   DS-00    EAP-00   EB-00    EUR-00   FAAE-00  FBIE-00 
      VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   VCE-00   NSAE-00  EPAE-00  DSCC-00 
      DRL-02   NFAT-00  SAS-00     /002W 
                  ------------------4231AD  231105Z /38 
P 231017Z NOV 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0355 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
AMEMBASSY OSLO 
AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM 
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 003527 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 11/23/11 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, PINR, ZI 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  03527  02 OF 03  231104Z 
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR, ZANU-PF SECRETARY OF INFORMATION NATHAN 
SHAMUYARIRA DISCUSS ZDERA, POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS 
 
5.  (C) ON LAND, THE AMBASSADOR CONTINUED, THE ABUJA AGREEMENT 
APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN PREEMPTED BY EXECUTIVE ACTIONS INTENDED TO 
PROHIBIT THE ABILITY OF COMMERCIAL FARMERS AFFECTED BY FAST TRACK 
TO PURSUE LEGAL REMEDIES.  REGARDING PREPARATIONS FOR THE 
ELECTION, WE CONTINUE TO RECEIVE REPORTS OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE, 
PARTICULARLY IN RURAL AREAS.  IN ADDITION, THE PROPOSED AMENDMENTS 
TO THE ELECTORAL ACT CAUSE US SERIOUS CONCERN, INCLUDING THE 
APPARENT INTENTION TO PREVENT CIVIL SOCIETY FROM SERVING AS 
DOMESTIC ELECTION MONITORS, A ROLE THEY HAVE TRADITIONALLY PLAYED 
IN ZIMBABWE.  THE AMBASSADOR REMINDED SHAMUYARIRA THAT WE ARE 
STILL AWAITING WORD FROM THE GOZ ON WHETHER INTERNATIONAL 
OBSERVERS WILL BE PERMITTED. 
 
6.  (C) SHAMUYARIRA REPLIED THAT HE WAS NOT FULLY BRIEFED ON THE 
GOVERNMENT'S RECENT MOVES ON LAND.  HE WAS CONCERNED BY THE 
ANNOUNCED INTENTION TO LIMIT THE SIZES OF FARMS TO AS LITTLE AS 
250 HECTARES, WHICH WAS "TOO SMALL FOR VIABLE FARMING."  REGARDING 
THE ELECTION, THE ZANU-PF OFFICIAL SAID INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS 
WOULD BE PERMITTED AFTER THE ELECTION DATES ARE ANNOUNCED.  HE 
MADE IT CLEAR THAT INVITATIONS WOULD NOT BE ISSUED TO SCANDINAVIAN 
COUNTRIES, WHICH HE CLAIMED STRONGLY SUPPORT THE OPPOSITION MDC 
AND WOULD CAMPAIGN HEAVILY FOR THE OPPOSITION PARTY UNDER THE 
GUISE OF ELECTION OBSERVATION.  "WE DO NOT WANT LONG-HAIRED 
SCANDINAVIANS TEACHING US ABOUT DEMOCRACY," HE SAID.  HE ASSERTED 
THAT THE RULING PARTY IS URGING ITS SUPPORTERS TO CONDUCT A 
PEACEFUL CAMPAIGN, BUT HE WARNED THAT IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO 
CONTROL THEM IN THE FACE OF CONTINUED PROVOCATIONS FROM THE MDC. 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03527  02 OF 03  231104Z 
IF THE MDC COULD KEEP ITS FOLLOWERS QUIET, HE SURMISED, ZANU-PF 
COULD "LIKELY KEEP OURS QUIET AS WELL." 
 
OF COURSE OUR ELECTION WILL BE FREE AND FAIR 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
7. (C) SHAMUYARIRA DECLARED THAT ZIMBABWE HAD HELD FREE AND FAIR 
ELECTIONS SINCE INDEPENDENCE, AND HE INSISTED THAT THERE WOULD BE 
NO RIGGING OR TAMPERING IN THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.  HE 
DISMISSED CONCERNS THAT REGISTRAR-GENERAL TOBAIWA MUDEDE IS TOO 
CLOSELY TIED TO THE RULING PARTY.  MUDEDE, HE POINTED OUT, HAD 
ORGANIZED THE FEBRUARY 2000 CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM IN WHICH THE 
GOVERNMENT HAD BEEN DEFEATED, SUPERVISED THE PARLIAMENTARY 
ELECTIONS IN JUNE 2000 IN WHICH THE MDC WON A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER 
OF SEATS, AND OVERSAW THE 2001 MAYORAL ELECTIONS IN MASVINGO AND 
BULAWAYO, BOTH OF WHICH THE MDC WON.  SINCE ANY SYSTEM CAN BE 
MANIPULATED, SHAMUYARIRA SAID, THE STRENGTH OF ANY ELECTORAL 
PROCESS DEPENDS ON THE INTEGRITY OF THE INDIVIDUALS WHO OVERSEE 
IT, AND ZIMBABWE'S ELECTORAL AUTHORITIES HAVE ALWAYS BEEN NON- 
PARTISAN AND OF THE HIGHEST INTEGRITY.  SHAMUYARIRA SAID HE DID 
NOT THINK ANY ZIMBABWEAN BELIEVES PRESIDENT MUGABE OR ZANU-PF RIGS 
ELECTIONS, ALTHOUGH THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAS HAMMERED THEM 
FOR DOING SO.  WHEN THE OPPOSITION PARTY CALLS FOR MUDEDE TO GO, 
THEY ARE REALLY PUSHING FOR AN MDC SUPPORTER TO REPLACE HIM. 
 
8. (C) THE AMBASSADOR ENCOURAGED THE GOZ TO ESTABLISH MECHANISMS 
TO REASSURE POLITICAL PARTIES AND ZIMBABWEANS IN GENERAL OF THE 
INTEGRITY AND FAIRNESS OF THE ELECTORAL PROCESS.  ESTABLISHMENT OF 
AN INDEPENDENT ELECTORAL COMMISSION, AS RECOMMENDED BY THE SADC 
PARLIAMENTARY FORUM'S ELECTORAL NORMS AND STANDARDS, IS ONE 
IMPORTANT STEP.  ANOTHER IS TO PERMIT INTERNATIONAL OBSERVATION OF 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  03527  02 OF 03  231104Z 
THE ELECTORAL PROCESS BY CREDIBLE, NON-PARTISAN ORGANIZATIONS.  IN 
ADDITION, VOTER EDUCATION CAN BE AN AREA FOR COOPERATION RATHER 
THAN CONFRONTATION.  TO THE EXTENT THAT ELECTORAL AUTHORITIES CAN 
FIND WAYS TO MAXIMIZE THE INFORMATION GETTING TO ELIGIBLE VOTERS, 
THAT HELPS BUTTRESS CONFIDENCE IN THE PROCESS.  SHAMUYARIRA 
RESPONDED THAT THEY WOULD ALLOW POLITICAL PARTIES TO CONDUCT VOTER 
EDUCATION BUT WOULD HENCEFORTH PROHIBIT NGO'S FROM DOING SO. 
CIVIL SOCIETY IN ZIMBABWE IS NOT NEUTRAL, HE INSISTED BUT, RATHER, 
IS CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE MDC.  IF THE PLEA THE AMBASSADOR WAS 
MAKING WAS TO ALLOW CIVIC BODIES TO CARRY OUT VOTER EDUCATION, HE 
WOULD MAKE A COUNTER-DEMAND THAT THEY BE GENUINELY NEUTRAL.  THAT 
IS A FAIR POINT THAT SHOULD BE EXAMINED BY THE ELECTORAL 
AUTHORITIES, THE AMBASSADOR REPLIED, BUT THE BEST PRINCIPLE, IN 
GENERAL, IS THE MORE EDUCATION OF VOTERS, THE BETTER. 
 
RACIAL TENSIONS 
--------------- 
 
9. (C) SHAMUYARIRA SAID THEY HAVE BEEN VERY DISAPPOINTED BY THE 
BEHAVIOR OF "EUROPEANS" (WHITE ZIMBABWEANS), WHO DECLINED TO 
PARTICIPATE IN THE POLITICAL PROCESS HERE AFTER INDEPENDENCE.  FOR 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ7307 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  03527  03 OF 03  231105Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  INL-00   DODE-00  DOTE-00 
      WHA-00   DS-00    EAP-00   EB-00    EUR-00   FAAE-00  FBIE-00 
      VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   VCE-00   NSAE-00  EPAE-00  DSCC-00 
      DRL-02   NFAT-00  SAS-00     /002W 
                  ------------------4231B2  231105Z /38 
P 231017Z NOV 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0356 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
AMEMBASSY OSLO 
AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM 
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 003527 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 11/23/11 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, PINR, ZI 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  03527  03 OF 03  231105Z 
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR, ZANU-PF SECRETARY OF INFORMATION NATHAN 
SHAMUYARIRA DISCUSS ZDERA, POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS 
 
TWENTY YEARS, THEY KEPT TO THEMSELVES, "GOING FISHING ON LAKE 
KARIBA" INSTEAD OF ATTENDING NATIONAL DAYS IN HARARE.  WHEN THEY 
CAME OUT STRONGLY IN SUPPORT OF THE MDC PRIOR TO THE JUNE 2000 
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, THEIR STANCE "ELICITED A VERY STRONG 
REACTION FROM US." 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
10. (C) WE HAD BARELY SAT DOWN WHEN SHAMUYARIRA LAUNCHED INTO 
ZDERA, AND THE IMPORTANCE TO THE GOZ OF BLOCKING CONGRESSIONAL 
PASSAGE.  ALTHOUGH ZDERA WOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE GROUND 
HERE IN TERMS OF DECREASED ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE OR IMF/IBRD RE- 
ENGAGEMENT, THE GOZ AND ZANU-PF REALIZE ITS PASSAGE WOULD BE A 
SIGNIFICANT GESTURE OF U.S. DISAPPROVAL OF GOZ ACTIONS, AND 
THEREFORE HOPES VERY MUCH THAT IT CAN BE TURNED OFF.  THAT SAID, 
ZDERA'S APPROVAL WOULD CERTAINLY PROMPT THE GOZ TO ADD US TO THE 
BURGEONING LIST OF FOREIGN ENEMIES WHICH ALREADY INCLUDES THE 
UNITED KINGDOM, THE SCANDINAVIANS, AND THE EU (AT LEAST WE WOULD 
BE IN GOOD COMPANY).  WE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN 
OFFICIAL ANTI-USG RHETORIC AND REDUCED ACCESS TO GOZ OFFICIALS. 
IN A WORST-CASE SCENARIO, THE GOZ WOULD USE ZDERA AS A PRETEXT TO 
INVOKE SOVEREIGNTY CONCERNS AND LAUNCH A NO-HOLDS BARRED CRACKDOWN 
ON THE MDC, THE INDEPENDENT PRESS, AND OTHER ELEMENTS OF CIVIL 
SOCIETY SUPPORTED BY ITS NEW ENEMY.  WE RECALL THAT FM MUDENGE 
SAID IN PARLIAMENT SEVERAL MONTHS AGO THAT PASSAGE OF ZDERA COULD 
PROMPT THE GOZ TO DECLARE A STATE OF EMERGENCY, A BLUFF THAT WE 
ARE WILLING TO CALL. 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03527  03 OF 03  231105Z 
 
SULLIVAN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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