US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3367

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 TAIPEI 003367 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - 
ROBERT PALLADINO 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW, Foreign Policy, Cross Strait Politics 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: SECRETARY POWELL'S BEIJING 
TRIP AND U.S. POLICY 
 
 
A) "[Taiwan Must] Calmly Face the Reality Before It 
Hits the Road Again" 
 
The centrist, pro-status quo "China Times" 
editorialized (10/28): 
 
". For Washington, it is in the overall interests of 
the United States to keep Taiwan in a position that can 
restrain China, create bargaining chips for U.S.-China 
negotiations and at the same time not really trigger a 
war in the Taiwan Strait.  Washington does not want 
Taiwan to stand in its way in areas where it wants to 
develop relations with China - such as trade markets. 
But it needs Taiwan to block Beijing when it comes to 
areas where it wants to overpower China - such as 
[China's] military hegemonic power.  Taiwan's position 
or value lies in playing the part of accommodating 
[party in] the United States' great strategy toward 
China.  Whenever there is a major conflict between the 
United States and China, the unprotected Taiwan can get 
support from the United States, but the room for Taiwan 
will be squeezed when conflicts between the United 
States and China are reduced or when they share the 
same interests.  Thus, chances are higher that 
[Secretary of State Colin] misspoke regarding `peaceful 
unification' because Washington has no need to reduce 
the room in which it moves around in with its policy 
and `peaceful resolution' would provide more bargaining 
chips for the United States. 
 
"Even so, Powell still did deal a heavy blow [to 
Taiwan].  Recently, Washington has repeatedly warned 
and stated that it does not support Taiwan 
independence.  Powell's remarks months ago which said 
that a resolution to the issue must be accepted by both 
sides of the Taiwan Strait was a new approach to 
further illustrate that [the United States] does not 
support Taiwan independence, which has also become one 
of the keynotes of U.S. policy. . 
 
". After the DPP came into power, it strived to rebuild 
foreign and cross-Strait policies that are politically 
correct and closely related to Taiwan's national 
identity. .  Also, some high-ranking Taiwan officials 
have tried to use the island's foreign relations as a 
campaign tool and turned the United States' goodwill 
and support into their personal campaign resources.  A 
series of rash behavior, remarks and provocative acts 
by Taipei, including the referendum, have not only 
undermined the long-standing trust between Taiwan and 
the United States but have also turned Taiwan into a 
variable that threatens U.S. interests. 
 
"The United States will not be afraid to take 
`preventive' action in the face of any threat that 
could endanger its national interests.  The support 
that Washington gives Taipei is not so great as to the 
extent that it would sacrifice its soldiers for Taiwan. 
If Taiwan works and waits patiently, maybe it could 
create a new status for itself in the international 
community.  But Taiwan made an early move to challenge 
the United States' one-China policy before the 
international climate matures, so it got slapped in the 
face by the United States. . 
 
"The United States has repeatedly urged both sides of 
the Taiwan Strait to resume dialogue.  It would be more 
appropriate to say that Washington's purpose is to 
reduce cross-Strait tension rather than just push for 
talks across the Taiwan Strait.  The mistrust of the 
United States, the saber rattling of China and the 
indifference of the international community are the 
reality that Taiwan must face calmly and bravely.  ." 
 
B) "The Real Connotation of Washington's One China 
Policy" 
 
Shao Chung-hai, a professor at National Chengchi 
University's Sun Yat-sen Institute, said in an op-ed 
piece in the centrist, pro-status quo "China Times" 
(10/28): 
 
"If this [i.e. what Secretary Powell said and what 
State Department Spokesman Ereli later clarified] is 
the U.S. government's long-standing policy toward 
Taiwan's status, Powell's remarks have clearly 
indicated the real connotation of Washington's one- 
China policy - namely, the meaning of `one China' 
remains ambiguous, but [Washington's position] toward 
Taiwan's status is moving toward clarity. . 
 
"Taipei was shocked [by Powell's remarks] partly 
because Washington did not mention in its earlier 
briefing to Taipei that Powell would speak in such a 
direct and candid manner.  It is also because Taipei 
had overlooked Powell's trip, thinking that he would 
soon leave his current position and he would not talk 
about any substantive issues when he visited Beijing. 
But what is more important is that Taipei, for a long 
time, has been trying to interpret the direction of 
Washington's Taiwan policy from its own position, 
arbitrarily judging that Washington's attempt to create 
ambiguity for its cross-Strait policy in the past was 
[meant] to create a background for Taiwan to split from 
mainland China.  The DPP government . especially 
misinterpreted the United States' position that neither 
side of the Taiwan Strait should unilaterally change 
the status quo as silent recognition the `fact' of an 
independent Taiwan. ." 
 
C) "Taiwan Independence Is a Mere Illusion" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language 
"China Post" said in an editorial (10/28): 
 
". Powell's comment departed from the usual U.S. 
practice of calling on both sides to settle their 
differences peacefully via dialogue and of avoiding 
taking any stance on what the resolution should be. . 
 
"Two factors contributed to the apparent shift in U.S. 
policy.  For one thing, the U.S. needs the help of 
Beijing in implementing its anti-terrorist mission, 
especially in dealing with North Korea, which President 
George W. Bush once described as the `Axis of Evil' 
along with Iran and Iraq. 
 
"Another factor is the DPP government and its allies' 
aggressive push for independence.  Apparently, the U.S. 
government believes Taiwan's movement toward statehood 
has made the Taiwan Strait more treacherous than ever 
before. 
 
"The independence activists' attempt to separate Taiwan 
from the mainland permanently has produced just the 
opposite effect.  Their pursuit, ironically, is making 
the outlook for Chinese reunification brighter." 
 
D) "Powell Should Not Withhold Reorganization of the 
Fact that `Taiwan Is an Independent Sovereign State'" 
 
The pro-independence "Liberty Times" commented in an 
editorial (10/28): 
 
". When we looked back at the contents of the United 
States' cross-Strait policy, they all focused on 
`peaceful dialogue,' `respect for the will of the 
Taiwan people,' and `maintaining the status quo.' 
Judged from these contents, [we know that] even Powell 
misspoke, the focus of his meeting with the Chinese 
leaders still centered on `urging both sides to resume 
dialogue' `opposition to any unilateral attempt the 
change the status quo,' and `firm commitment to arms 
sales to Taiwan.'  Just as noted in the clarifications 
by the State Department and AIT, the United States' 
Taiwan policy remains unchanged.  However, even though 
Powell's inappropriate remarks were a slip of the 
tongue, which were later clarified by U.S. officials, 
Powell's remarks have undeniably deviated from the 
historical reality and seriously harmed Taiwan's 
interests as well as the feelings of the 23 million 
Taiwan people.  As a result, Taiwan people must ask the 
United States to make a powerful clarification and 
commitment, and Powell must also apologize to the 
Taiwan people in public. ." 
 
E) "Powell's Misspeaking Alerts Taiwan People to 
Quickly Become a `Normal Country' through the Process 
of Instituting a New Constitution" 
 
The pro-independence "Taiwan Daily" said in an 
editorial (10/28): 
 
". But in our eyes, Powell's statements that `Taiwan is 
not independent" and `does not enjoy sovereignty as a 
nation' have actually underscored the necessity and 
urgency for Taiwan to become a `normal country' through 
the process of public self-determination to rectify 
Taiwan's name and institute a new constitution. ." 
 
F) "K.M. Koo: I Do Not Believe That `Peaceful 
Unification' Is the U.S. Policy' 
 
Senior Presidential Advisor K.M. Koo said in an 
exclusive interview with the pro-independence "Liberty 
Times" presented as a commentary (10/28): 
 
"Senior Presidential Advisor K.M. Koo said in an 
exclusive interview with this newspaper that the reason 
why both sides of the Taiwan Strait have failed to 
resume a dialogue is because China has done a good job 
in pressuring Taiwan through the United States.  China 
will not sit down to talk with Taiwan as long as the 
United States continues implementing its one-China 
policy.  China's turning down [the offers] as proposed 
by both President Chen and Secretary Powell are the 
best examples.  Unless the United States gives up the 
role to speak for China, chances will be slim for both 
sides of the Taiwan Strait to resume talks. . 
 
". Koo said Powell did seem `very calm and composed' 
when he talked about `peaceful unification.'  But 
Taiwan's strategic importance in Asia will not be 
affected by the remarks of a government, a certain 
political party, or a secretary of state.  It will be a 
very dangerous idea if `unification' is what Powell has 
in mind. 
 
"According to Koo, `unification' would mean giving up 
on Taiwan, an idea which is by no means in the United 
States' interests.  Also, if Taiwan becomes part of 
China, it will have a great impact on the peace in 
Asia, which was established in the wake of the Second 
World War.  China's basic idea is to drive the U.S. 
influence out of Asia and establish its leading role in 
the region.  But this will certainly trigger resistance 
from both Japan and Korea.  As a result, Koo said he 
will never believe that `peaceful unification' will 
become the U.S. policy. ." 
 
G) "The Wake-up Call in Powell's Words" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" 
editorialized (10/28): 
 
". Naturally, the most likely possibility is precisely 
that Powell, who is evidently not very familiar with 
the intricacies of Taiwan's `China problem' or China's 
`Taiwan problem,' did indeed make verbal errors without 
prior malice or forethought. . 
 
"While we can welcome the clarifications, we should not 
neglect preparations for alternatives. 
 
"For example, there remains a possibility that Powell 
and the U.S. State Department or even President George 
W. Bush are playing a 'bad cop, good cop' routine with 
both Taipei and Beijing. 
 
"While the goal of the U.S. secretary of state may be 
to maintain stability, his initiative may bred even 
more tension. 
 
"Indeed, Powell's strident defense of `our one-China 
policy,' a posture which is quite distinct from 
Beijing's `one-China principle,' cannot hide the fact 
that its foundations have been gravely eroded by 
Taiwan's democratization and emergence as a 'subject' 
in the triangular relationship and by the PRC's own 
economic and military rise. 
 
"Unfortunately, instead of compelling Beijing to accept 
the fact of Taiwan's actual-existing sovereignty, the 
U.S. secretary of state's clumsy intervention has set 
back progress by fostering both anger in Taiwan and 
unrealistic expectations in Beijing that any government 
in Washington may be able to make the problem of facing 
up to the reality of Taiwan's `people-based 
sovereignty' wither away. . 
 
"In a sense, Powell may have done Taiwan a backhanded 
favor by reminding us of the need to cultivate a far 
broader base of support in global public support to 
buttress the genuine `enjoyment' of sovereignty by 
Taiwan's people and thus ease our security dependence 
on the United States. . 
 
"Truly, the best way to help ourselves is to help 
others help themselves.  In order to lay the 
foundations for its own sustainability and lasting 
autonomy, a democratic Taiwan should boldly take up the 
unaccustomed role of acting as an agenda-setter instead 
of passive follower in the global arena in party by 
laying the foundations for our own sustainability as 
President Chen hinted in his May 20 inaugural speech." 
 
PAAL