US embassy cable - 04CARACAS3342

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 003342 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, KDEM, VE 
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA REGIONAL ELECTIONS: VIEWS FROM CARABOBO 
STATE 
 
 
Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for 
Reason 1.4(d) 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) Political party representatives in Carabobo State each 
told Poloff October 21 that polls showed its candidate in the 
lead in the gubernatorial race, and in a majority of mayoral 
races.  Chavez's Fifth Republic Movement (MVR) representative 
asserted that Chavista candidates would sweep all the races 
on October 21.  Proyecto Venezuela dismissed COPEI and 
Primero Justicia concerns about the electoral registry, but 
joined in their worries about high abstention rates and 
possible violence if voters turned out but were not allowed 
to count paper ballots after polls closed.  End Summary. 
 
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Proyecto Venezuela's Solitary Can Do Attitude 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
2. (C) Maria Eugenia Hands, Director of Communication for 
Proyecto Venezuela (PV) in Carabobo State, confident that 
current PV Governor Henrique Salas Feo would be reelected on 
October 31.  Hands told Poloff October 21 that current polls 
showed Salas Feo ahead of MVR candidate Luis Acosta Carles by 
about 30 points, and third party candidate Jose Gregorio Ruiz 
with no more than 5% of the vote.  A high abstention rate 
could hurt Salas Feo, Hands said so she qualified it as a 
"close" race.  Hands said PV was also likely to win four or 
five of the 13 mayoralties, while other opposition parties 
would probably win three.  Hands speculated that after the 
regional elections the divide between PV and the opposition 
could grow wider.  She pointed out that while many opposition 
parties supported Salas Feo for governor, for most the 
support was in name only. 
 
3. (C) Proyecto Venezuela was not concerned about the 
problems with the electoral registry, Hands noted, because 
the registry has always had problems.  Instead, she said, the 
party is worried about how the votes will be counted when 
polls close.  Hands said the PV campaign strategy is to 
MOTIVATE the middle class to vote, EDUCATE the lower class on 
how to use electronic voting machines, and have voters stay 
at the polls and GUARD their votes on election day. Hands 
asserted that the middle class in Carabobo were most likely 
to abstain because of conflicting messages and a sense of 
defeat from the "stolen" referendum.  While the middle class 
had to be motivated, Hands said, lower class voters were 
inexperienced with technology and needed to be educated on 
how to vote to make sure they did it correctly. 
 
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Full Steam Ahead: MVR 
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4. (C) Movimiento Quinta Republica's (MVR) Secretary General 
for Carabobo State, Luis Medina told Poloff October 21 that 
the MVR has taken advantage of the opposition's weakness and 
their division and would continue to do so in the regional 
elections.  Medina asserted that MVR candidate Acosta Carles 
would become governor of Carabobo, and the MVR would sweep 
all 14 mayoralties.  (Note: Carabobo State has 14 
mayoralties; one of which is an administrative municipality 
and does not elect a mayor on October 31.)  Medina compared 
the opposition to spoiled children who if given concessions 
would continue to make more outrageous demands or claims. 
According to Medina, this showed it would be impossible to 
work with the opposition.  He said the CNE could not agree to 
the opposition's requests for fear of opening a floodgate of 
requests and challenges. 
 
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Chavez's Little Party That Could: Podemos 
------------------------------------------ 
 
5. (C) On October 21, poloff also met with Oscar Perez, 
Regional Secretary General of Carabobo State for Podemos. 
Perez asserted that Podemos was backing Chavista candidates 
in Carabobo and hoped to contribute 20% to the Chavista vote. 
 In the regional elections, Perez said, political parties 
were more important than in the referendum and were working 
 
 
in tandem with Comando Maisanta.  Perez predicted that 
Chavista candidates would win 9 of the 13 mayoralties and the 
gubernatorial race  Perez noted that according to four recent 
polls, MVR candidate Acosta Carles was ahead of Proyecto 
Venezuela's Salas Feo by seven points. 
 
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Reasons for Worry: COPEI and Primero Justicia 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
6. (C) COPEI's Lucio Herrera and Hector Pinero told Poloff 
October 21 that while Proyecto Venezuela's Henrique Salas Feo 
was ahead by 10 points, his selfishness had cost him a 
stronger lead in the polls and the active support of other 
opposition parties.  If abstention rates are higher than 50%, 
Herrera said, then Salas Feo would probably lose the 
governor's race.  Herrera estimated that the opposition had a 
good chance of winning 7 of the 13 mayoralties, including 
Valencia, the state capital and largest city in Carabobo. 
Herrera and Pinero said they were concerned about the 
electoral registry and the conflicting message of fraud and 
abstentions that voters were receiving from different 
opposition political parties.  They pointed out that if 
opposition voters did go to the polls on election day, the 
possibility of violence was high unless the CNE instructed 
poll workers and the military guarding the polls to allow the 
people to observe the paper ballots being counted after the 
polls closed. 
 
7. (C) Local Primero Justicia representatives said Salas Feo 
was ahead in the polls by a small margin, and asserted that 
the opposition would win 7 of the 13 mayoralties.  They 
reiterated Proyecto Venezuela and COPEI concerns about 
conflicting messages, high abstention rates and possible 
violence if voters turned out to vote but were not allowed to 
observe paper ballots being counted after polls closed. 
Primero Justicia's Ruben Dario noted the importance of 
winning the gubernatorial race and the Valencia mayoralty to 
protect civil liberties and the right of the people to march 
in protest. 
 
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Comment 
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8. (C) Despite some opposition concerns, political party 
representatives in Carabobo believe his/her favored candidate 
is doing well in a close race.  The most important factor, as 
they note, is the possible abstention, and one that will hurt 
candidates identified as opponents of President Hugo Chavez. 
Governor Henrique Salas Feo has a solid political base and 
the foundation incumbency provides.  His boorish chief rival, 
known for his televised burp during a controntation with a 
Coca Cola distributor, however, has struck a chord with lower 
class voters and fully enjoys the financial backing of the 
central government...a combination that may prove to be hard 
to beat. 
Brownfield 
 
 
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      2004CARACA03342 - CONFIDENTIAL