US embassy cable - 04CARACAS3341

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 003341 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/25/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PHUM, VE 
SUBJECT: EFFICIENCY TRUMPS POLITICS IN VENEZUELA'S BOLIVAR 
STATE 
 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ABELARDO A. ARIAS FOR REASONS 1.4 (d 
) 
 
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Summary 
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1.  (C) Both sides in the race for governor of Bolivar State 
are confident their candidate will be elected in the regional 
elections on October 31.  Efficiency, rather than politics, 
is the main theme in the campaign, and both campaigns hope to 
draw supporters away from their opponent.  The GoV wants to 
defeat a former Chavista, and to control this important 
industrial area.  In conversations with PolOff the sides 
agreed that Gov. Antonio Rojas Suarez has been an effective 
administrator, and that Gen. Fernando Rangel Gomez, the 
Chavista candidate, has been an effective leader of the 
Corporacion Venezuelana de Guayana, the state owned 
industrial giant of the region.  Regional newspapers are 
split in their predictions. End Summary. 
 
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Rojas Suarez Optimistic 
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2.  (C) PolOff spoke with Bolivar State Governor Antonio 
Rojas Suarez, and State Secretary General Waldo Jose Negron 
October 25.  Rojas said that, based on daily tracking polls 
the tendency in favor of his reelection is irreversible.  He 
would not specify numbers, but explained that he expected 
significant support from Fifth Republic Movement (MVR) 
members and other backers of President Hugo Chavez.  Negron 
noted that Rojas Suarez had been the president of the state 
MVR until his 2003 break with Chavez.  He also said the MVR 
is divided in Puerto Ordaz, the largest city in the region, 
because the current MVR mayor is running for reelection 
without the party's support.  Rojas Suarez said Chavista 
support for Rojas Suarez would help offset the effect of 
abstention among hard core opposition supporters. 
 
3.  (C) Rojas Suarez said his administration had achievements 
to back up his campaign for reelection, including building 50 
schools, renovating 160, creating an integrated emergency 
dispatch system, a trauma hospital and a virtual library. 
Asked where the resources came from for all the projects, the 
Governor complained about central government disbursement 
delays, but noted that funds eventually arrive.  He said that 
to get the payments, governors have worked arrangements with 
local banks. 
 
4.  (C) Rojas Suarez said many voting centers in Bolivar were 
manual, due to their isolation, and that he had a strong lead 
in these districts.  As for the electronic voting centers, he 
said he had "heard" that the people in the barrios were going 
to demand that the voting boxes be opened.  He stressed that 
in contrast to the recall referendum, the regional elections 
have a law that specifically refers to counting the votes 
publicly. 
 
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Maisanta 
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5.  (C) Marco Rojas (a cousin of the Governor) of Chavez' 
Comando Maisanta campaign, told PolOff October 26 that Gen. 
Francisco Rangel Gomez was leading 57% to 31% over Rojas.  He 
dismissed the support Rojas could expect among Chavista 
voters as "insignificant", while pointing to significant 
support for Rangel among businessmen in Bolivar.  He asserted 
that as head of the Corporacion Venezuelana de Guayana (CVG), 
Rangel had had extensive dealings with the business 
community, which was now translating into political support. 
Marco Rojas said the Governor had done a good job,  but had 
been unwilling to work with the CVG and the central 
government, even before breaking with Chavez.  He said 
Bolivar State would develop faster with three forces (state 
government, municipal government, and CVG) pushing in the 
same direction. 
 
6.  (C) Marco Rojas told PolOff that the Maisanta campaign 
was trying to prevent abstention, to give the elections 
legitimacy. He said they would work with the opposition to 
allay any suspicions, but only under the orders of the 
National Electoral Council (CNE). They would not support or 
allow the opening of all the voting boxes, alleging that it 
 
 
would take too much time, though he suggested that the two 
sides could reach an agreement on election day on which boxes 
to open. (Note: CNE rules do not allow for this.) 
 
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Local Press POV 
--------------- 
 
7.  (C) Robinson Lizano, editor of the conservative Correo 
del Caroni, told PolOff October 25 that independent polls 
show Rojas Suarez with 26-7% of the vote, Rangel with 22-3%, 
and two other opposition candidates with 8% and 6% 
respectively.  He said the campaign was between two leaders 
with good administrative records.  Lizano noted that Rangel, 
while president of the CVG, had failed to solve Puerto Ordaz' 
serious water problems, which are the responsibility of CVG, 
and that this could hurt him in the election.  He said the 
issue of Rojas Suarez' break with Chavez has not been major 
campaign issues.  Chavez, Lizano said, also forgave Rojas 
Suarez after April 2002, and continued to work with him until 
2003.  Lizano alleged that Rangel was shamelessly using CVG 
resources to finance his campaign. 
 
8.  (C) Lizano said no leaders in the region had called for 
abstention.  Anecdotal evidence, however, indicated it would 
be very high among the middle and upper classes of Puerto 
Ordaz, he said.  Among the reporters on his staff, he 
estimated 20 of 25 would not vote.  Lizano estimated that 
abstention would be near the traditional 40%.  He said the 
two military leaders in the state, National Guard CORE 8 
Commander Gen. Alberto Betencourt Nieves, and 5th Jungle 
Division Commander Gen. Wilhelm Beccerra, were strong Chavez 
supporters, who would not hesitate to favor the Chavista 
candidate any way they could.  He said there were divisions 
in Chavismo in the region, in part over the substitution of 
the MVR candidate for mayor of Puerto Ordaz for a PPT 
candidate and over a fight for control of some unions in CVG, 
which might favor Chavista dissidents crossing over to Rojas 
Suarez.. 
 
9.  (C) Gerardo Gonzalez, head editor of the Nueva Prensa de 
Guayana, told PolOff October 25 that he believed the Chavista 
candidates would win the elections as a result of the high 
opposition abstention.  He said the Rojas Suarez government 
has a good reputation among Chavistas, while Rangel has the 
support of 40,000 employees of CVG who experienced his 
successful management, and the association with Chavez. 
Gonzalez said that the people of Bolivar State have learned 
that you get more resources if you are with the GOV, than if 
you are against it. 
 
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Comment 
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10.  (C) Bolivar State seems unusually blessed to have two 
good managers to chose from on October 31.  As one would 
expect in a regional election, many local factors will play 
important roles in this race, including water, past 
achievements, and party divisions.  Despite complaints about 
fraud in the recall referendum, Rojas Suarez talked about the 
race in normal and political terms.  He seems confident that 
the electoral law gives the opposition much greater control 
than during the referendum. Rangel, for his part, is not a 
politician, and seems to have been chosen as a trustworthy 
stand-in for Chavez. That, and his record at CVG, make him a 
formidable challenger for a successful opposition governor. 
The key to the race will be whether Rojas Suarez can peel 
away enough Chavista support to offset middle class 
abstention. 
Brownfield 
 
 
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      2004CARACA03341 - CONFIDENTIAL