US embassy cable - 04CARACAS3340

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 003340 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
HQSOUTHCOM FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, KDEM, VE 
SUBJECT: CHALK ONE FOR CHAVEZ IN ANZOATEGUI 
 
Classified By: DCM STEPHEN G. MCFARLAND FOR REASON 1.4 (D) 
 
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Summary 
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1.  (C)  Candidates are battling against voter apathy for 
gubernatorial, mayoral, and state legislative positions in 
the oil-rich Anzoategui State, currently controlled by the 
opposition.  The administration's candidate, National 
Assembly deputy Tarek William Saab, is close to President 
Hugo Chavez and is a vociferous critic of the USG.  The 
opposition's eleventh-hour candidate, mayor Antonio Barreto 
Sira, is popular and charismatic.  The opposition, however, 
will have to rebound quickly from its divisions and 
reputation for poor leadership at the state and local levels 
to be competitive on October 31.  Suspicion of fraud may nail 
the opposition's coffin by keeping their voters away from the 
polls, leaving a hard-core Chavez supporter as governor in a 
strategic state.  End summary. 
 
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Atmospherics 
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2.  (U)  Intense campaigning marks the oil-rich but 
underdeveloped Anzoategui State, in which the opposition 
controls the state government and 12 of 21 mayoralties. 
Propaganda litters the streets, signposts, and newspapers of 
the Barcelona-Puerto La Cruz corridor, which contains over 
half of the state's 1.4 million inhabitants.  In 
advertisements for President Hugo Chavez's favored 
candidates, Chavez's face is ubiquitous.  At a Chavista rally 
site, activists wearing red gather all day and celebrate at 
night.  Opposition supporters clad in political t-shirts 
distribute campaign literature at roadside stands and at red 
lights.  While Chavista and opposition activists are so 
polarized that they rarely associate with each other, most 
state residents lack confidence in all politicians, according 
to government, business, and academic officials. 
 
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The Gubernatorial Candidates 
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3.  (C)  Chavez's candidate is National Assembly deputy Tarek 
William Saab Halabi (MVR), an outspoken critic of the USG who 
has made a national issue out of his revoked US visa.  Saab, 
of Lebanese extraction, was denied a visa in 1997 because of 
his links to terrorist activities.  He also violated the 
terms of a 2000 waiver he received for an official visit to 
Washington.  A former human rights lawyer and poet, Saab won 
the trust of the President when he visited Hugo Chavez in 
prison in 1992.  Saab hails from the city of El Tigre in 
central Anzoategui and returns from Caracas on the weekends 
to campaign.  His campaign cites the "North American Opinion" 
polling firm's report that he has the support of 67.5 percent 
of the state. 
 
4.  (U)  Opposition candidate Antonio Barreto Sira (AD) is a 
longtime politician and the popular mayor of Freites, the 
fifth-most populous of Anzoategui's 21 municipalities.  (The 
opposition currently controls 12 of the 21 municipalities.) 
According to the host of a political television show on the 
local channel Telecaribe, the public "is drawn" to the 
charismatic Barreto.  State director of Primero Justicia 
Gustavo Marcano told PolOff Barreto's popularity in Freites 
stems from his construction of grandiose public works 
projects--including a ten-lane, olympic-sized swimming 
pool--with revenue contributed by oil companies.  According 
to the pollster "Data Consult," Barreto Sira on October 24 
had a five percentage-point lead on Saab.  About 18 percent 
of those polled, however, remained undecided or failed to 
respond. 
 
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Opposition Discord 
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5.  (U)  The splintered opposition did not rally behind 
Barreto Sira until the night of the CNE-imposed October 21 
deadline to drop out of the race.  Candidates Barreto Sira 
and incumbent governor David de Lima--a former Chavista now 
affiliated with MAS--had agreed that they each would choose 
 
one firm to poll the public, and the least popular candidate 
would withdraw, according to National Assembly deputy Alfonso 
Marquina (AD).  On October 20, the press announced that both 
polls had picked Barreto Sira.  Meanwhile, David de Lima's 
secretary told the Embassy that the rivals were still 
 
SIPDIS 
negotiating behind closed doors.  According to the tabloid 
Tal Cual, De Lima decided to withdraw in exchange for AD's 
support for some undisclosed mayoral candidates. 
 
6.  (U)  In the local elections, each municipality has 
several candidates on the ballot, many of whom have chosen to 
stay in the race.  For example, there are 15 mayoral 
candidates in the opposition-dominated municipality of 
Urbaneja, including the state party leaders of Primero 
Justicia and COPEI.  Three of these 15 candidates are 
sympathetic to the administration, although in each case of 
such a divided "oficialista" ticket, Chavez's support for 
only one candidate is manifest. 
 
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      Opposition Mismanagement 
      ------------------------ 
 
      7.  (C)  The former head of Puerto La Cruz's chamber of 
commerce described de Lima to PolOff as a governor with few 
accomplishments.  De Lima's tourism director blamed 
"political instability" for the state's inability to attract 
vacationers, although the state, with stunning ocean and 
desert scenery in the north and the Orinoco River in the 
south, has significant potential.  On October 25, 120 police 
officers demanding unpaid benefits raided the governor's 
house, apprehended his bodyguards, and fired shots in the air 
to drive the intervening police chief from the scene.  The 
officers remain on strike. 
 
8.  (U)  Waste has characterized the term of office of 
Urbaneja's opposition mayor, who also has declined to seek 
reelection.  According to Primera Justica's Marcano, Urbaneja 
has a larger law enforcement budget than Caracas's Baruta 
municipality, yet its streets are unsafe. 
 
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Comment 
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9.  (C)  That Saab enjoys the support of 67.5 percent of the 
electorate in Anzoategui stretches the imagination. 
Abstention is likely to be high among sympathizers of Chavez 
and the opposition.  Nonetheless, Saab will likely carry the 
day because the specter of fraud will probably keep more 
opposition than pro-government voters away from the polls. 
And, Saab has been campaigning for nearly one year -- he has 
worked hard.  The opposition may also have trouble retaining 
a majority of the mayoralties.  End comment. 
 
Brownfield 
 
 
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      2004CARACA03340 - CONFIDENTIAL