US embassy cable - 04DJIBOUTI1377

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DJIBOUTI 001377 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, DJ 
SUBJECT: RULING COALITION PARTIES REACT TO RPP CONGRESS 
 
REF: DJIBOUTI 1356 
 
Classified By: Pol/Econ Erinn C. Reed for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1. (C) In the days after the ruling party, People's Rally for 
Progress (RPP), held their conference nominating current 
President Ismail Omar Guelleh as the party's choice for 
presidential candidate in the 2005 elections, word of 
discontent from the ruling coalition partners started to 
surface.  Some Majority Union for Peace (UMP), the ruling 
coalition comprised of RPP, Front for the Restoration of 
Unity and Democracy (FRUD), Popular Party for Social 
Democracy (PPDS) and National Democratic Party (PND), party 
representatives are apparently feeling cheated by Guelleh and 
the RPP holding a single party congress. 
 
2. (C) Word on the street reports that a UMP meeting one 
month prior to the RPP congress was held in order to 
determine a plan of action for the upcoming campaign season. 
It is said that in this meeting the four parties agreed to 
hold a joint congress to nominate the coalition candidate for 
the 2005 election.  PPDS and FRUD members say the leadership 
was surprised to hear Guelleh and RPP had decided to hold a 
unilateral congress.  The party leadership also feels bruised 
egos from Guelleh's call on the second day of the RPP 
congress for the other three parties in the UMP coalition to 
meet and adopt a joint position, something that was 
reportedly formulated and decided upon one month prior in the 
UMP meeting. The general thought is Guelleh wanted to 
reassert his party's status as the sole party that really 
gathers and rallies the masses. 
 
3. (C) For the PPDS, two major personalities appear to be 
leading the party, both of which are reportedly feeling 
cheated and mistreated by the RPP.  Moumin Bahdon, former 
Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Boulaleh Barreh, former 
Minister of Interior, are the driving force in PPDS and both 
carry significant political and tribal weight. Bahdon and 
Barreh are both of Issa origin but come from the two major 
sub-clans that oppose the Mamassan sub-clan (Guelleh's 
sub-clan of origin). The two reportedly intend to "show their 
muscles" in the months before the election, knowing that it 
would show the danger of collapse in Guelleh's coalition. The 
idea of the appearance of a weak coalition and slight 
political disturbances is likely not to reflect well on the 
external image of Djibouti. This occurrence would be contrary 
to everything Guelleh has worked to portray over the course 
of his tenure as President.  Rumors have it that PPDS may use 
this tactic as a bargaining chip with Guelleh in order to up 
their profile in government from just a Ministerial level to 
a higher level in the Administration and security forces. 
(Note: It has been said that this last request may be because 
Bahdon had militia that was discreetly integrated into the 
Army beginning this year. End Note.) Contacts within the PPDS 
also mention that the party has the beginnings of a 
generational conflict between "the rising generation" and 
"the old dinosaurs." 
 
4. (C) The FRUD leadership is rumored to believe that the RPP 
has "misbehaved" and demands reparation. FRUD already holds 
one ministerial position and 13 parliamentary seats. FRUD has 
seen a sudden increase in young Issa membership. Some believe 
this is in order to better portray itself as a national party 
and further remove itself from the Afar rebellion roots that 
created it. (Note: FRUD was one of the Afar parties that 
rebelled in the early nineties, which started the country's 
civil war. At the time of the peace accords in 1995, a 
portion of FRUD leadership joined the government and the rest 
remained in armed rebellion until the peace accords in 2001. 
The latter faction of FRUD, headed by Ahmed Dini Ahmed, is 
now the opposition party Republican Alliance for Democracy 
(ARD). End Note.) 
 
5. (C) The PND, headed by Aden Robleh Awaleh, has become the 
suspicious party in the coalition. Awaleh's fax, read the day 
of the RPP's announcement of Guelleh as their candidate, has 
apparently surprised the two other coalition members as much 
as, some say, high-ups in his own party. Opponents of Awaleh 
are suspect of his actions and say that he had curried great 
favor with Guelleh. Also it is said that his appointment to 
the Parliament of the African Union in Johannesburg is a 
reward from Guelleh and he is using it as an opportunity to 
create business connections for himself and Guelleh. 
 
6. (C) On the part of the RPP, it now appears that Guelleh is 
more at ease following the death of Ahmed Dini Ahmed, leader 
of ARD. Dini's presence has been a strong counter-balance to 
Guelleh in the past.  Guelleh is said to be in good shape 
politically and is untroubled by Dini's successor, Ahmed 
Youssouf, because Youssouf is not very active or charismatic. 
 Guelleh is said to be taking the attitude that there is no 
large threat to his position and that the other parties of 
the coalition should stay in the background and wait for his 
gifts. 
 
7. (C) Comment: Post cannot accurately comment on how much of 
the above rumor is truth. The  majority of it is reported 
through party members or word on the street. We will continue 
to keep close watch on both ruling party and opposition 
activities leading up to the election in 2005. These rumors 
and reports from within the parties could indicate that 
everything is not completely calm on either side of the 
Djiboutian political fence. 
RAGSDALE