US embassy cable - 04BRUSSELS4639

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 004639 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/ERA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, IT, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: EU: BARROSO WITHDRAWS COMMISSION JUST BEFORE VOTE 
 
REF: A. A) USEU TODAY 10/20/04 
     B. B) USEU TODAY 10/15/04 
     C. C) USEU TODAY 10/14/04 
     D. D) BRUSSELS 4578 
     E. E) USEU TODAY 10/26/04 
 
Classified By: USEU POLOFF TODD HUIZINGA FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY:  Realizing after last-minute consultations 
that he would not obtain European Parliament (EP) approval, 
European Commission President-designate Jose Manuel Barroso 
on October 27 withdrew his Commission one hour before the 
scheduled vote.  He said he would present a new list of 
Commissioners-designate "soon."  Until then, the current 
Commission, headed by President Romano Prodi, will stay on. 
While Barroso has lost some prestige and his Commission will 
get a late start, we do not believe that these events will 
provoke an institutional crisis in the EU.  END SUMMARY. 
 
BACKGROUND: BUTTIGLIONE'S CONSERVATIVE VIEWS 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
2. (U) The main obstacle to the Barroso Commission's approval 
was MEPs' disapproval of Commissioner-designate for Justice, 
Freedom and Security Rocco Buttiglione's outspoken positions 
on homosexuality and the family, including his view that 
homosexuality is a &sin.8  The EP Civil Liberties and 
Justice and Home Affairs Committee rejected Buttiglione's 
nomination because of fears that Buttiglione would not uphold 
the principle of non-discrimination toward gays and women. 
Although various groups in parliament complained of other 
nominations, Buttiglione's nomination became the causus belli 
that eventually rallied a majority against the Barroso 
Commission. 
 
BARROSO SEES WRITING ON WALL 
---------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) After Barroso's proposed compromise on October 21 -- 
which would have dispersed responsibility for 
non-discrimination among a team of Commissioners -- failed to 
convince center and left-wing EP leaders (ref D), further 
consultations brought no significant movement.  The centrist 
liberal faction remained the key swing voting bloc.  An EP 
source told us that, at an October 26 meeting between Barroso 
and Liberal-Democrat (ALDE) EP Deputies (MEPs), 50 said they 
would vote against his Commission, 23 said they would vote in 
favor, and 5 said they would abstain.  The results of that 
meeting tipped the scales against Barroso. 
 
BARROSO'S SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL 
----------------------------- 
 
4. (U) On October 27, one hour before the vote set for 12:00 
noon, Barroso announced to a surprised EP in plenary session 
that he would withdraw his designated Commission.  Saying a 
vote would not be good for "the European project," Barroso 
said he would work to come up with a new team within a few 
weeks.  After adjourning temporarily for internal party 
consultations, the EP reassembled in plenary and accepted 
Barroso's decision.  Both EP President Josep Borrell and the 
Dutch EU Presidency representative, European Affairs Minister 
Atzo Nicolai, said the current Prodi Commission would have to 
stay in office beyond the planned November 1 end of its term 
until a new Commission had been approved.  (Prodi had agreed 
in the run-up to this vote to continue in office beyond 
November 1 if necessary.) 
 
What Next? 
---------- 
 
5. (C)  Barroso must now consult closely with member states, 
and will either re-shuffle portfolios among existing 
candidates, or ask some or all member states to nominate 
different commissioners.  He will almost certainly try to 
persuade the Italian government to nominate someone other 
than Buttiglione.  Barroso did not establish any deadline for 
presenting new proposals, noting only that he would do so "in 
the next few weeks."  The next plenary of Parliament is 
currently scheduled for November 15-18, but if he proposes 
new portfolios or presents a new slate of commissioners, it 
is difficult to imagine the new team would complete the 
committee hearings process by that time.  The next 
regularly-scheduled plenary is not until December 13-16, 
although the Parliament could also be called into special 
session if needed. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
6. (C) Withdrawing the Commission may have averted a clear 
defeat in the vote, and several Parliamentary leaders tried 
to help Barroso save face by suggesting he would emerge 
strengthened, not weakened, from this event.  The clear 
loser, however, was the Parliament's largest party grouping, 
the EPP, which attempted a power play and was outmaneuvered 
when all other groups rallied against them.  A second 
parliament loser, ironically, could be the liberal democrats, 
who tipped the balance against this slate.  It is difficult 
to imagine the next team Barroso presents will be as liberal 
in orientation as the Commission that was just defeated.  It 
is possible back-room discussions at the Rome EU Summit on 
October 29 could very quickly yield the outlines of a new 
Commission, but much will depend on PM Berlusconi's 
willingness to sacrifice Buttiglione.  While a big bump in 
the road for Barroso, we do not believe that these events 
will provoke an institutional crisis in the EU. 
 
SCHNABEL