US embassy cable - 04KINSHASA1999

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINSHASA 001999 
 
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, CG 
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION FIGURE TSHISEKEDI KEEPING HIS OPTIONS 
OPEN 
 
 
Classified By: Poloff Edward Bestic for Reasons 1.5 B and D 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY:  A close adviser to opposition figure Etienne 
Tshisekedi, leader of the UDPS party, confirmed that the UDPS 
 
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is no longer allied with the RCD-Goma and maintains informal 
links with Jean-Pierre Bemba's MLC.  In our view, while a 
Tshisekedi-Bemba alliance during the upcoming elections is 
 
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certainly possible, we are less likely to see President 
Kabila teaming up with the UDPS leader. END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (C) Jean-Joseph Mukendi, a close adviser to opposition 
figure Etienne Tshisekedi told poloff October 27 that 
Tshisekedi's political party, the Union for Democracy and 
 
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Social Progress (UDPS), has not had a formal alliance with 
the Congolese Rally for Democracy (RCD-Goma) movement since 
late 2003.  The UDPS does support RCD-Goma views on certain 
issues, however, such as nationality.  Tshisekedi is also in 
touch with members of Jean-Pierre Bemba's Congo Liberation 
Movement (MLC), and in fact Bemba recently invited the UDPS 
leader to a formal dinner, although Tshisekedi declined.  The 
UDPS expects upcoming elections, set for June 2005, to be all 
about alliance-building, and is keeping its options open for 
now. 
 
3. (C) Mukendi said that although there is still a continuing 
dispute over UDPS legality under the new law on political 
parties, adopted in early 2004, it is not a serious challenge 
and lower-level authorities have not harassed UDPS members at 
all.  He added that the UDPS' main agenda item for the near 
future is to hold a party congress in February 2005, and 
Tshisekedi does not plan to travel anywhere before then. 
 
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4. (C) COMMENT:  Mukendi's view on UDPS-RCD relations 
contradicts what senior RCD figures have said recently, that 
the old alliance is very much alive and well.  In UDPS eyes, 
that partnership died in 2003 after the ex-belligerents 
failed to uphold an unwritten "gentleman's agreement," 
whereby Tshisekedi would become vice-president in the 
transitional government.  The MLC is a much more attractive 
partner in terms of winning votes, and if he thought he could 
win, Jean-Pierre Bemba could probably accept being prime 
minister under a Tshisekedi presidency.  An alliance with 
President Joseph Kabila is a more awkward fit, because the 
age difference is more pronounced (Tshisekedi is 70-plus, 
Kabila is in his early 30s) and both would want to be 
president.  END COMMENT. 
MEECE