US embassy cable - 01MANILA6761

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 006761 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2010 
TAGS: PINS, MOPS, PREL, KISL, PGOV, RP 
SUBJECT: MISUARI TO USG "I'M NO TERRORIST" 
 
REF: MANILA 6730 
 
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL COUNSELOR STEVEN E. ZATE, REASONS: 
1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: NUR MISUARI HAS DECIDED TO REVERT BACK TO HIS 
ARMED SEPARATIST WAYS, BUT HAS SENT A CLEAR MESSAGE TO THE 
UNITED STATES CLAIMING THAT HE WILL NEVER BE A TERRORIST AND 
HAS NOT ALLIED HIS FORCES WITH THOSE OF THE ABU SAYYAF GROUP 
(ASG).  A MISUARI EMISSARY HAS TOLD EMBASSY MANILA HE INTENDS 
TO BE AN "HONEST ADVERSARY" IN HIS RENEWED FIGHT AGAINST THE 
PHILIPPINE GOVERNMENT (GOP) BUT EVEN NOW IS OPEN TO A REAL 
AGREEMENT THAT ALLOWS FOR "TRUE AUTONOMY" FOR MUSLIMS.  THE 
MORO NATIONAL LIBERATION FRONT - MISUARI FACTION (MNLF-MF) 
MESSENGER INDICATED THAT A FULL POLITICAL AND MILITARY 
ALLIANCE BETWEEN HIS GROUP AND THE ARMED MORO ISLAMIC 
LIBERATION FRONT (MILF) IS IMMINENT AND THAT JOINT MNLF/MILF 
OPERATIONS AGAINST GOP FORCES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN IN CENTRAL 
MINDANAO.  THE MESSAGE IS CLEAR - MISUARI HAS AGAIN TAKEN TO 
THE HILLS BUT HE DOES NOT WANT TO MAKE AN ENEMY OF THE U.S. 
OR BE BRANDED AS AN INTERNATIONAL TERRORIST.  END SUMMARY. 
 
GET THE WORD TO THE US 
---------------------- 
 
2. (C) POLOFF MET NOVEMBER 21 WITH REV. ABSALOM CERVEZA, A 
PROTESTANT CLERGYMAN WHO IS DEPUTY CHAIRMAN OF THE SOUTHERN 
PHILIPPINES COUNCIL FOR PEACE AND DEVELOPMENT (SPCPD) UNDER 
THE OFFICE PHILIPPINE PRESIDENT MACAPAGAL-ARROYO.  CERVEZA IS 
A LONG TIME SUPPORTER OF MNLF FOUNDER (AND SUSPENDED MUSLIM 
REGIONAL GOVERNOR) NUR MISUARI AND WAS APPOINTED BY MISUARI 
TO HIS CURRENT POST.  HE REMAINS MISUARI'S CLOSE CONFIDANT 
AND ADVISOR.  CERVEZA SAID MISUARI HAD ASKED HIM TO PASS 
SEVERAL MESSAGES TO THE EMBASSY AND THE USG.  HE TOLD US THAT 
MISUARI HAS DECIDED THAT THERE IS NO CURRENT HOPE THAT THE 
GOP WILL TRULY HONOR ITS COMMITMENTS TO GRANT TRUE AUTONOMY 
TO THE MUSLIMS - AS CALLED FOR IN THE TRIPOLI AGREEMENT OF 
1976 AND THE PEACE AGREEMENT OF 1996 SIGNED BY BOTH PARTIES. 
SINCE THAT IS THE CASE, MISUARI HAS DECIDED TO GO BACK TO THE 
HILLS AND LEAD HIS REJUVENATED MNLF FACTION IN THE "ONLY 
NEGOTIATION THE GOP TRULY UNDERSTANDS - ARMED WARFARE." 
CERVEZA SAID THAT MISUARI, WHO REMAINS WITH HIS FIGHTERS IN 
SULU PROVINCE, WANTS THE USG TO CLEARLY UNDERSTAND THAT HE IS 
"NO TERRORIST," AND "HAS NO LINKS WITH THE TERRORIST ABU 
SAYYAF."  MISUARI'S MAN NOTED THAT HIS LEADER HAS 
"CONSISTENTLY CONDEMNED THE ASG AND THEIR UN-ISLAMIC BANDITRY 
AGAINST INNOCENTS." 
 
"IT'S THE GOVERNMENT'S FAULT" 
----------------------------- 
 
3. (C) CERVEZA SAID THAT MISUARI BELIEVES THAT PRESIDENT 
GLORIA MACAPAGAL-ARROYO HAS RECEIVED BAD ADVICE FROM SEVERAL 
MEMBERS OF HER CABINET LED BY HER PEACE ADVISER EDUARDO 
ERMITA, SPECIAL PROJECTS ADVISER NORBERTO GONZALES, AND 
DEFENSE SECRETARY ANGELO REYES.  THESE THREE HAD CONSPIRED 
WITH MEMBERS OF MISUARI'S MNLF CENTRAL COMMITTEE LED BY 
PAROUK HUSSIN TO OUST HIM AND MANIPULATE THE NOVEMBER 26 
ELECTIONS IN THE AUTONOMOUS REGION OF MUSLIM MINDANAO (ARMM) 
TO ENSURE A HUSSIN WIN.  ACCORDING TO CERVEZA THIS WAS THE 
LAST STRAW IN A LONG-RUNNING GOP CAMPAIGN TO DEMOLISH 
MISUARI'S REPUTATION AND DIGNITY AND TO BRING HIM DOWN IN THE 
EYES OF HIS SUPPORTERS AND ALL MUSLIMS.  "MISUARI IS A PROUD 
MAN AND WILL NOT STAND FOR THIS DISHONOR, WHILE AT 60 HE IS 
NOT YOUNG, HE IS OUT TO PROVE THAT HE STILL ENJOYS THE 
SUPPORT OF MANY MUSLIMS," CERVEZA SAID.  TO PROVE THIS, 
MISUARI HAS SENT HIS FAMILY OUT OF THE COUNTRY, HAS PICKED UP 
HIS ASSAULT RIFLE, HAS REFURBISHED HIS MILITARY COMMAND 
STRUCTURE, AND IS FINALIZING A FORMAL RECOMBINING OF THE MNLF 
AND THE MILF LED BY HASHIM SALAMAT.  (NOTE: SALAMAT BROKE 
WITH THE MNLF IN THE LATE 1970S AFTER DISAGREEMENTS WITH 
MISUARI OVER HOW TO PUSH FOR MUSLIM INDEPENDENCE AND A MORE 
ISLAMIC UNDERPINNING FOR THE SEPARATIST MOVEMENT.  END NOTE.) 
 ACCORDING TO CERVEZA THIS AMALGAMATION IS IMMINENT AND MILF 
AND MNLF-MF FORCES HAVE ALREADY COOPERATED IN JOINT 
OPERATIONS AGAINST THE ARMED FORCES OF THE PHILIPPINES (AFP) 
IN SULU AND IN CENTRAL MINDANAO. 
 
4. (C) CERVEZA ASSERTED THAT THE GOP SHOULD HAVE KNOWN THAT 
MISUARI WOULD JUST GO AWAY, AS THEY EXPECTED HIM TO DO.  "THE 
MAN IS NOT STUPID.  HE COULDN'T BE BOUGHT OFF WITH AN 
AMBASSADORSHIP IN SAUDI ARABIA OR TURKEY," CERVEZA SAID. 
"NOW THAT MISUARI IS MAKING HIMSELF A MILITARY FORCE TO BE 
RECKONED WITH THE GOVERNMENT IS AT A LOSS TO KNOW WHAT TO 
DO," HE CLAIMED.  "THEY HAVE NO PLAN AND HAVE LEFT MISUARI NO 
CHOICE BUT TO RETURN TO THE HILLS."  CERVEZA ADDED THAT 
MISUARI BELIEVES THAT HE WILL FORCE THE GOP TO DEAL WITH HIM 
AND HIS FOLLOWERS POLITICALLY TO ASSURE TRUE AUTONOMY ONLY IF 
HE NOW PURSUES THE MILITARY OPTION.  MISUARI'S MAN INDICATED 
THAT THE GOP WILL NOW HAVE TO DEAL WITH AN ARMED MNLF AGAIN 
BECAUSE IT FAILED AT DEALING WITH UNARMED MUSLIMS WHO WANTED 
A STRAIGHT POLITICAL SHAKE FOR THE "MORO NATION." 
 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
5. (C) HUBRIS HAS ALWAYS BEEN THE PRICKLY MISUARI'S BIGGEST 
FAILING, AND THIS HAS PROMPTED HIM TO TRY AND REVIVE HIS PAST 
GLORY AS A TOUGH LEADER OF AN ARMED SEPARATIST MOVEMENT.  THE 
GOP, IN TURN, UNDERESTIMATED HIS DETERMINATION TO CONTINUE TO 
BE A PLAYER.  A GENUINE MNLF (SULU-BASED AND MOSTLY ETHNIC 
TAUSUG) TIE-UP WITH THE MILF (MOSTLY CENTRAL MINDANAO-BASED 
MAGUINDANAOS AND MARANAOS) IS A DAUNTING PROSPECT AND SHOULD 
GIVE GOP MILITARY PLANNERS AND POLITICAL POLICY-MAKERS PAUSE. 
 MISUARI IS THE MAJOR POWER BROKER IN THE ISLAND PROVINCE OF 
SULU AND THE GOP HAS ITS HANDS FULL WITH THE ASG IN BASILAN 
TO THE NORTH.  AN MILF/MNLF ALLIANCE IS NOT A DONE DEAL 
BECAUSE SOME OF THE FACTORS THAT LED TO THEIR SPLIT REMAIN. 
IN ADDITION, THE MILF LEADERSHIP REMAINS IN PEACE 
NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE GOP, AND WHILE THESE TALKS ARE 
PROCEEDING SLOWLY, THEY ARE MOVING FORWARD.  HOWEVER, THE 
OPENING OF ANOTHER SEPARATIST FRONT THROUGH MILF/MNLF 
COOPERATION IN CENTRAL MINDANAO WILL NOT BE GOOD FOR THE 
CREAKY, POORLY LED, AND RESOURCE-POOR AFP.  THE AFP STILL HAS 
TO CONTEND WITH A NAGGING COMMUNIST INSURGENCY IN SCATTERED 
PARTS OF THE WHOLE COUNTRY AND HAVING TO BATTLE ON TOO MANY 
FRONTS LEAVE IT STRETCHED EXTREMELY THIN.  PRESIDENT 
MACAPAGAL-ARROYO RETURNS TO THE COUNTRY FROM THE US AND 
MEXICO ON NOVEMBER 22.  THIS ITEM WILL BE AT THE TOP OF HER 
NOW EVEN MORE PRESSING SECURITY AGENDA.  WITH ALL THE RECENT 
PUBLICITY ABOUT US ASSISTANCE TO DESTROY THE ASG, MISUARI MAY 
HAVE WANTED TO EXPLAIN HIS MOTIVES IN AN EFFORT TO AVOID 
HAVING IS RE-ARMED SEPARATIST FORCES BECOME ANOTHER DIRECT 
(OR INDIRECT) US TARGET.  PROBABLY A WISE MOVE. 
 
FITTS