US embassy cable - 04ABUDHABI3855

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABU DHABI 003855 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA/ARPI AND INR/B 
 
STATE PASS TO USTR FOR DOUG BELL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/14 
TAGS: PINR, PGOV, TC 
SUBJECT:  Ruling family projects normalcy and stability in 
face of Zayed's precarious health 
 
Ref:  Abu Dhabi 3410 
 
(U) Classified by Richard A. Albright, Charge d'Affaires, 
a.i., reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: UAE President Sheikh Zayed is critically 
ill, but his demise may not be imminent.  The country's 
leaders are extremely sensitive about the issue of his 
health, reacting very negatively when the subject is 
broached.  Meanwhile, rumors about Zayed's precarious 
health, and others about his demise, and often wild 
speculation about alternative succession scenarios, 
continue unabated.  The UAEG has decided not to issue a 
statement to dispel the rumors because it believes that 
doing so would only stir up more rumors, an advisor to the 
Minister of Information and Culture Sheikh Abdullah bin 
Zayed (AbZ) told us.  For their part, the ruling families 
of the seven Emirates are making a show of normalcy, 
demonstrating their strong ties with one another with 
prominently publicized Ramadan visits.  When Sheikh Zayed 
passes away, we expect a stable transition, with Abu Dhabi 
Crown Prince Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed becoming Abu Dhabi's 
next Ruler and UAE President, and Abu Dhabi Deputy Crown 
Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed becoming the next Crown 
Prince.  End Summary. 
 
2. (C) The UAE began the month of Ramadan amid rumors that 
Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan, the President of the UAE 
since it became a federation in 1971, had either passed 
away, or had slipped into a coma.  Sheikh Zayed is reported 
to be on life support.  Sheikh Abdullah told the French 
Ambassador in early October that Sheikh Zayed's health was 
"stable," without getting drawn out on his prognosis. 
There are rumors that he has liver cancer. 
 
3. (C) Emboffs hear the rumors at cocktail receptions, 
private dinners, coffee shops, sports events, and in the 
hallways of the Embassy.  Asked if Emiratis are hearing the 
same rumors as expatriates, UAE University political 
science professor Ebtisam Al Kitbi pulled out her mobile 
phone and said, "We're sending each other text messages all 
the time.  It's like a favorite pastime."  Without any 
official confirmation one way or the other of Zayed's 
health status, all of us are left to watching and listening 
for tell-tale signs or hints.  For example, when people see 
official government vehicles speeding up the freeway from 
Abu Dhabi to Al Ain, some jump to the conclusion that means 
the ruling family is gathering around the patriarch's 
deathbed to bid him farewell. 
 
Rumors began after UAE gave up GCC summit 
----------------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) The rumors began in earnest in September when the 
government announced that the Kingdom of Bahrain had asked, 
and the UAEG had concurred, to host the GCC summit in 
December 2004.  The summit was to have been held in a 
magnificent new hotel being built on the Abu Dhabi 
Corniche.  Abu Dhabi also was in the process of sprucing up 
miles of highways and boulevards linking the international 
airport and the hotel/convention center.  Without further 
official explanation for the change in venue for the GCC 
summit, rumors began circulating that Sheikh Zayed was 
close to death and would not be able to greet fellow GCC 
leaders.  Bahrain's Crown Prince told the President's 
counter terrorism advisor, Fran Townsend, on Sept. 15 that 
the change in venue was related to Sheikh Zayed's poor 
health.  Others said that the conference center and related 
road and infrastructure projects had fallen behind 
schedule.  A media advisor to Information and Culture 
Minister Sheikh Abdullah told Polchief at the time of the 
decision that even he did not know the real reason behind 
the decision. 
 
5. (C) The rumor mill had been put in motion and has been 
active since.  The same advisor to Sheikh Abdullah told 
Polchief on Oct. 24 that there was talk within the UAEG of 
issuing a statement regarding Sheikh Zayed's state of 
health, but that they refrained from doing so because they 
think that would only stir up more rumors.  "People will 
think we're trying to hide something," he said.  The Al 
Nahyan family, rulers of the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, is 
taking all of this very well, the advisor added.  The 
rulers have been making numerous public appearances during 
Ramadan, including paying visits to one another to exchange 
holiday greetings, and attendance at an important 
international conference on Islam in Abu Dhabi.  They have 
met with several USG officials during this period, 
including USTR Zoellick and A/S for Political-Military 
Affairs Bloomfield, giving them the impression of business 
as usual. 
 
Stratfor report riles UAEG 
-------------------------- 
 
6. (C) While the UAEG has not issued a single public 
statement about the health of the President or the 
succession implications, Information and Culture Ministry 
advisors have told Emboffs privately that a recent report 
on the UAE succession by the Texas-based Strategic 
Forecasting is completely unfounded.  The report, published 
on the Internet, suggests as a possibility that Abu Dhabi 
Deputy Crown Prince and Armed Forces Chief of Staff Sheikh 
Mohammed bin Zayed (MbZ) might "buy" the presidency from 
Khalifa (who is reportedly less well-off than MbZ) in 
exchange for some other political and economic benefits. 
Our Ministry of Information contacts told us such a 
suggestion is ridiculous given that it is Khalifa who holds 
Abu Dhabi's purse strings, citing the Abu Dhabi Investment 
Authority in particular.  Khalifa also controls several 
major businesses and a vast investment portfolio. 
(Comment: If anyone is "less well-off," and that can only 
be a very relative term among the Al Nahyan, it would be 
MBZ and the other five Bani Fatima (the six sons of Zayed 
by his current wife Fatima), whose business interests are 
far more limited.) 
 
7. (C) The same report suggests that the "well-loved and 
widely respected" Sultan bin Zayed could become the Ruler 
of Abu Dhabi and then President, with Mohammed bin Zayed as 
the real power behind the throne. (Comment: Sheikh Sultan 
may be well-loved among some Abu Dhabi tribes, but widely 
respected stretches plausibility.)  As we have noted in 
reftel, Sultan has had periodic bouts with substance abuse 
and gained notoriety for his mismanagement of funds for 
high-profile projects.  The report also even suggests that 
Dubai, or possibly Sultan Al Qassimi, the Ruler of the 
Emirate of Sharjah, might make a surprise bid for the 
presidency, something we view as equally unlikely.  Abu 
Dhabi's status as the wealthiest, most populous, and 
largest Emirate, and its conscious effort to distribute its 
wealth across the other Emirates make a challenge to its 
hold on the presidency unlikely.  From what we know from 
our contacts, the Abu Dhabi-Dubai relationship is strong, 
cemented by the solid relationship of Mohammed Bin Zayed 
and Mohammed Bin Rashid.  If newspaper photos are any 
indication  nd they often are here  he press this week 
showed a smiling Mohammed Bin Rashid hosting a smiling 
Mohammed Bin Zayed at an Iftar dinner in Dubai, and a 
smiling Crown Prince Khalifa with a contented-looking 
Sheikh Hamdan Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Deputy Ruler of Dubai, 
during an exchange of Ramadan greetings in Abu Dhabi. 
Stratfor cites one other "remote possibility" for 
president: Sheikh Zayed's grandson (the report mentions 
only that he has been schooled in the West).  No one we 
know of has ever suggested such an option, and we seriously 
doubt the Emirati leadership would even contemplate it. 
One of the things that bothers the UAEG about all this wild 
speculation is that Stratfor's clients include Fortune 500 
companies and major government agencies. 
 
8. (C) As we have reported before (see reftel), Abu Dhabi 
Crown Prince Sheikh Khalifa is set to become Ruler of Abu 
Dhabi when his father passes away.  We have never heard of 
any suggestion otherwise from anyone here.  Nor have we 
heard any suggestion that the UAE Supreme Council, 
comprised of the Rulers of the seven Emirates, would elect 
the ruler of any other Emirate as President. 
 
Comment: 
-------- 
 
9. (C) It is apparent that Sheikh Zayed is critically ill, 
likely on life support, and possibly suffering from 
terminal cancer.  How long he will survive remains a matter 
of constant conjecture.  Another constant is that the 
ruling family is not talking, but doing everything possible 
to project normalcy.  When Sheikh Zayed passes on, we 
expect a smooth transition with Khalifa's election 
occurring without delay. 
ALBRIGHT