US embassy cable - 04BRUSSELS4629

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 004629 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/FO - TEFFT, EUR/RUS, EUR/UMB, EUR/ERA 
MOSCOW FOR EUR A/S JONES AND EUR/RUS DIRECTOR WARLICK 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2009 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ECON, ETTC, RS, XH, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: EU-CIS RELATIONS:  GROWING FRUSTRATION WITH MOSCOW 
 
 
Classified By: USEU POLOFF LEE LITZENBERGER; REASONS 1.4 (B,D) 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY:  During October 22 U.S.-EU Troika meeting on 
Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova, EU officials told EUR 
DAS Tefft that diminishing expectations for the EU-Russia 
summit and disappointment over elections in Belarus were 
leading the EU to reconsider its policies toward both 
countries.  In particular, Russian skepticism of the European 
Neighborhood Policy and EU influence in Russia's 'near 
abroad' is likely to lead to EU-Russian friction in the 
future.  On Ukraine, the EU explained its new Neighborhood 
Policy as primarily an attempt to bring Ukraine closer to the 
West but noted that "if, at the start, the Presidential 
elections are stolen" it would be difficult going.  The 
Troika also discussed next steps on Moldova, with the EU 
unexpectedly noting that it had begun sharing the US-EU 
Stability Declaration text with Moldova, Russia and Romania. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
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FOUR SPACES: RUSSIA'S DELAYS PROMPT REEVALUATION? 
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2. (C) Jan Lucas van Hoorn, Dutch MFA Director for Southeast 
and Eastern Europe, and Michael Leigh, Commission Deputy 
Director General, both told EUR DAS Tefft that they were 
hopeful that the EU and Russia would agree on "roadmaps" for 
further action in each of the four common spaces prior to the 
November 11 EU-Russia summit.  (The four spaces are Internal 
Security, External Security, Economics and Trade, and Culture 
and Research.)  Van Hoorn said that although the EU would 
prefer agreement on roadmaps for all four spaces as a package 
for the November 11 summit, the EU would settle for 
"practical implementation" of whatever elements are agreed by 
the summit. 
 
3. (C) Leigh and Van Hoorn noted that the EU and Russia have 
essentially agreed to the roadmaps on the economic and 
cultural spaces.  In particular, the EU is pleased with 
Russia's Kyoto ratification, and with Russian agreement to 
include environmental issues -- such as use of double-hulled 
tankers -- and trade-related issues, such as fees for 
Siberian overflights, in the economic roadmap.  But this 
success contrasts sharply with discussions on the external 
and internal security roadmaps, which remain "problematic." 
In the internal security roadmap, Russia continues to object 
to discussion of Chechnya or human rights, lobbies for 
Russian minority rights in the Baltic states, and harbors 
unrealistic hopes the EU will grant visa free travel to 
Russian citizens.  In the external security roadmap, Van 
Hoorn said that Russia is "not ready" to discuss with the EU 
issues related to the 'near abroad'.  In a separate meeting, 
Council Secretariat official Carl Hallergard said that at the 
October 19 EU-Russia ministerial, FM Lavrov had likened EU 
enlargement to CIS integration, saying, "We each have our 
neighborhoods. If we need help in ours, we'll let you know." 
Kees van Rij, Head of Task Force in the Council Secretariat, 
noted that Russia's "zero-sum approach" to its near abroad 
precludes serious engagement with the EU on their shared 
neighborhood. 
 
4. (C) In contrast, van Rij noted Russian receptivity on 
non-proliferation and anti-terrorism cooperation, and EU 
counter-terrorism Czar de Vries will travel to Moscow in 
early November.  But substantive cooperation remains elusive, 
and van Rij was puzzled by the Russian enthusiasm to create 
common structures to deal with security issues and its 
simultaneous reluctance to engage on the issues such 
structures would have to address. 
 
5. (C) EU officials were pessimistic regarding Russia's steps 
to weaken democracy and failure to resolve frozen conflicts. 
The Commission said the surveillance and pressure on foreign 
companies and signs of weakening democracy are part of a 
"consolidation of a trend that has been taking place all 
along since 2001".  Leigh said "managed democracy" may be the 
best that can be hoped for; the media grab and other measures 
taken by Putin to increase control "gives the EU pause" to 
think about the EU's underlying assumption that engagement 
with Russia can be based on a slow convergence of values 
between Russia and Europe.  That isn't happening.  With the 
new Commission coming in, and given post-Beslan developments 
in Russia, Leigh said the EU may reevaluate its approach to 
Russia. 
 
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MOLDOVA: STABILITY DECLARATION, SANCTIONS AND EU PEACEKEEPING 
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6. (C) Van Hoorn informed DAS Tefft that the EU had begun 
sharing the US-EU draft Stability Declaration with Moldova, 
Russia and Romania.  At the October 19 EU-Russia ministerial, 
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov dismissed the text as "a good 
OSCE document".  Van Rij said the EU had told these countries 
that the Text of the declaration is "not carved in stone" and 
remains "open to discussion".  The EU plans to solicit 
reactions from all concerned, and look for an opportunity to 
use the text to kick-off pentagonal talks, which the EU would 
host.  DAS Tefft said the U.S. would make parallel approaches 
in Moldova, Russia, Ukraine, Romania, and the OSCE to share 
the text.  Van Hoorn and Tefft discussed jointly visiting 
Chisinau the week of November 15 to discuss next steps. 
 
7. C) DAS Tefft informed the EU that the US was considering 
taking action against the Transnistrian banking sector, and 
asked the EU to consider doing the same.  Raul de Luzenberg, 
Moldova Desk Officer at the Commission, said that the 
Commission is "looking into" the possibility of financial 
sanctions, but faces legal and other challenges in collecting 
adequate information on which to take action. 
 
8. (C) DAS Tefft asked about the possibility of an EU 
Peacekeeping Mission in Moldova, should the Russian troops 
leave Moldova as part of a political settlement.  Van Rij 
said that the EU had had internal discussions on this in 
September 2003, but it had suspended its planning to focus on 
reaching a political settlement first.  Nonetheless, the EU 
said the plans could be "dusted off" if a political 
settlement became likely.  Van Hoorn agreed to share EU 
documents on post-settlement plans with the U.S. 
 
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UKRAINE'S ELECTIONS AND MIXED COOPERATION WITH MOLDOVA 
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9. (C) During October 21 meetings with the EU, Moldovan FM 
Stratan had taken a "stronger anti-Ukrainian position than 
before", and said he expected a negative "break" in 
Moldova-Ukrainian relations.  De Luzenberg said a recent 
meeting between Ukrainian and Moldovan officials on border 
issues had been tense, but progress had been made on 
demarcation and exchange of information between Moldova and 
Ukraine. 
 
10. (C) Leigh noted that the EU's Neighborhood Policy was 
initially conceived to encourage Ukraine to move closer to 
the West.  Ukraine did not like the Neighborhood Policy, 
preferring instead an offer on eventual membership, but had 
reluctantly agreed to negotiate a Neighborhood "Action Plan." 
 Now, however, if at the start of the plan Ukraine's 
presidential elections are "stolen," Leigh said, EU relations 
with Ukraine will be difficult.  EU officials were very 
interested in coordinating with the US on a possible travel 
ban on officials involved in undermining free and fair 
elections in Ukraine. 
 
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EU HARDENING STANCE ON BELARUS? 
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11. (C) Nadine Ernzer, Regional Director for CIS Countries in 
the Political Department from Luxembourg, said that the 
October 17 elections had had been far worse than expected 
and, combined with Lukashenko's consolidated grip on power, 
showed similarities to a "fascist regime".   The EU is now 
considering "possible measures" to respond to developments in 
Belarus, and Nadine said the EU would "reappraise its Belarus 
policy". 
 
12. (C) DAS Tefft summarized recent U.S. actions, including 
the Belarus Democracy Act, the possible expansion of the visa 
ban to penalize election defrauders, and a desire to increase 
training of political opposition and civil society, and 
student exchanges.  Ernzer said that the EU would consider 
similar actions to be implemented in early 2005. 
 
13. (C) Weidemann said that EU policy on Belarus was based on 
the assumption of an eventual change of leadership.  With 
Lukashenko increasing his chances to be president-for-life 
with the referendum, van Rij said the EU would have to go 
beyond funding civil society and look for alternative 
responses in "a fresh manner".  Tefft said that developing a 
joint list of possible actions would be useful, and that 
encouraging positive engagement from the Russians would be 
crucial. 
 
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COMMENT 
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14. (C) Recent changes in Russia and the absence of 
transparent and fair elections in Belarus -- and likely in 
Ukraine -- are prompting an internal reassessment of EU 
policy toward Russia and the CIS.  Although the EU will 
continue to engage Russia and the CIS to promote democracy 
and political pluralism, continued negative trends in the 
region may lead the EU increasingly to link its engagement 
with more punitive measures such as financial sanctions and 
visa bans.  END COMMENT. 
 
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Participants 
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15. (U)  EU Delegation 
 
Netherlands (current EU Presidency): 
Jan Lucas van Hoorn, Director in Dutch MFA for Southeast and 
Eastern Europe 
Anthony van der Togt Head of Division in Dutch MFA for 
Eastern Europe and Central Asia 
 
Luxembourg (successor to Netherlands in EU Presidency): 
Nadine Ernzer, Regional Director for CIS Countries, Political 
Department 
Judith Feider, Permanent Representation of Luxembourg to the 
EU 
 
European Commission 
Taneli Lahti, Desk Officer, Russia, Ukraine, Moldova, 
Belarus, DG Relex 
Karsten Mechlenburg, Desk Officer, Ukraine, DG Relex 
Reinhold Brenden, Desk Officer, Moldova, DG Relex 
 
EU Council Secretariat 
Sofia Moreira de Sousa, Administrator, Ukraine and Central 
Asia Desk, DGE 
Annika Weidemann, Administrator, Belarus and Moldova Desk, DGE 
Karl Hallergard, Administrator, Russia Desk, DGE 
Kees van Rij, Head of Task Force Europe/Central Asia and 
Transatlantic Relations 
 
U.S. Delegation 
John Tefft, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European 
Affairs 
Lee Litzenberger, Political Officer, US Mission to the EU 
Tom Lersten, Desk Officer, EUR/ERA 
Elzbieta Mazur, Political Officer/TDY US Mission to the EU 
Sean Kimball, Intern US Mission to the EU 
 
16.  (U) DAS Tefft has cleared this message. 
 
SCHNABEL