US embassy cable - 04BRUSSELS4625

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 004625 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/IPA, NEA/NGA, NEA/IR, NEA/PI, EUR/ERA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2009 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ETRD, KNNP, IZ, IR, IS, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: NEA A/S BURNS' CONSULTATIONS WITH EU ON IRAQ, 
IRAN, FFTF AND MEPP 
 
 
Classified By: USEU POL MINCOUNS KYLE SCOTT; REASONS 1.4 (B,D) 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1. (C) A/S Burns met October 22 with senior EU officials on 
the way back from his most recent trip to the region.  Topics 
discused were Iraq, Iran, Forum for the Future (FFtF) 
preparations, and the Middle East Peace Process (MEPP).  The 
EU outlined its plans to support elections in Iraq, and also 
discussions underway on a possible EU presence in Iraq. 
EU-Iranian discussions the previous day in Vienna were 
characterized as good, but will require several additional 
meetings before the November IAEA Board of Governors meeting 
to see if the Iranians will yield.  A/S Burns updated the 
Commission on Moroccan plans for the FFtF meeting, and 
reviewed unresolved issues of participation and how to deal 
with education questions.  Javier Solana expressed 
frustration with the Israeli approach to the MEPP, but 
underscored his determination to ensure that EU member states 
remained committed to the Quartet process rather than 
pursuing independent initiatives.  It was suggested the Sharm 
el Sheikh meeting could become an important venue for 
discussing approaches to many of these issues.  EU Special 
Representative for the Middle East Peace Process Marc Otte 
took advantage of Burns' visit to hold an informal meeting of 
Quartet envoys, where the group discussed plans for the AHLC, 
now scheduled for December 8 in Oslo.   End Summary. 
 
Iraq - Elections Are Key 
------------------------ 
 
2. (C) A/S Burns briefed EU officials on the current 
situation in Iraq.  Key US goals are supporting PM Allawi's 
efforts at rebuilding the security apparatus, advancing 
political reconciliation (especially with disaffected 
Sunnis), and allowing economic reconstruction to proceed. 
The success of the UN's efforts to organize elections in 
January will prove a key milestone.  Christian Leffler, 
Middle East Director for the Commission, agreed that the 
elections were critical, and outlined EC efforts to support 
the UN.  The Commission has decided to increase its 
contributions to this effort by an additional 30 million 
euros.  He had just received approval to send reinforcements 
to Baghdad to support the UN team.  The Commission hopes they 
will operate under Carlos Valenzuela's umbrella, but noted 
they will remain separate so as not to exceed the ceiling for 
UN personnel.  That said, Leffler noted that the Commission 
hopes their officials can make use of security provided the 
UN team, so as to reduce costs for the Commission. 
 
3. (C) Leffler said the Commission has concluded that the 
conditions in Iraq are simply not right for meaningful 
international observation of the elections.  Instead, the EC 
intends to concentrate on training trainers/observers to 
allow Iraqis to better organize the observation effort.  In 
parallel, the EU intends to organize "process observation." 
These process monitors will be based in both Baghdad and 
Amman, and will look at the organization of the overall 
process, in order to be able to pronounce on its fairness and 
organization after election day.  A/S Burns urged close 
coordination with the UN. 
 
EU "Rule of Law Mission" Inside Iraq? 
------------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) Peter Feith, Council Deputy Director General for 
Security and Defense Policy, briefed A/S Burns on his recent 
visit to Baghdad and Council proposals to establish a "rule 
of law mission" in Iraq to support training senior police, 
judges, prosecutors, and perhaps also prison officials.  His 
office has presented options to the member states on how to 
carry out this mission, ranging from a full-fledged training 
effort in both Baghdad and Basra, to a small advisory 
presence in Iraq with training conducted outside the country. 
 The member states had reviewed these proposals for the first 
time October 22, and would return to them again October 26. 
DG Robert Cooper suggested the French would likely oppose an 
EU mission inside Iraq.  Feith agreed, but said he hoped the 
member states would eventually decide on an option which 
would include some sort of EU presence inside Iraq.  Feith 
hopes the member states will reach agreement in the coming 
days, so that this proposal can be combined with the 
Commission's proposals, and presented to PM Allawi when he 
travels to Brussels for the November 5 Council session.  He 
hopes to send a planning team to Baghdad soon thereafter, 
with the goal of launching the mission soon after the January 
elections. 
 
5. (C) Cooper asked about a long-term US military presence in 
Iraq, suggesting that a sensible policy would be "organize 
elections, train the Iraqi army, and get out."  He emphasized 
that it was important for the EU that Iraq end well, and 
underscored that this would also help transatlantic relations 
"get past the bad blood of the past."  In all these issues, 
Cooper emphasized that "it would help if there were some sort 
of Franco-American reconciliation."  Solana also cautioned 
that PM Allawi's public criticism of France made reaching 
agreement within the EU more difficult. 
 
Iran: Good Start, More Meetings To Come 
--------------------------------------- 
 
6. (C) Secretary General Javier Solana and Cooper both 
described the October 21 meeting in Vienna with the Iranians 
as a "good start."  According to Cooper, the Iranians 
accepted the EU-3 paper without reactions, other than to note 
that it was imbalanced because it contained requests for 
concrete action by Iran in exchange for promises from the EU. 
 Still, Cooper considered it encouraging that the Iranians 
suggested the process of consultations on the package needed 
to go faster than planned, and suggested several more 
meetings to discuss the package prior to the IAEA BOG. 
Cooper admitted that "noises from Tehran are not 
encouraging," but felt reassured that in Vienna the Iranians 
at least appeared ready to talk.  According to Cooper, the 
Iranians indicated that they had thought through further 
steps already, have studied the composition of the BOG and 
the UNSC, and asked how the West expected to deliver on its 
"threats." 
 
7. (C) Cooper regretted that the next IAEA BOG meeting came 
so soon, suggesting all parties may need more time.  The EU-3 
(plus Cooper) will meet again with the Iranians the week of 
October 25 to continue discussions on the EU's package, and a 
third round of talks are likely the second week in November. 
Solana also echoed Cooper's hint of weak EU resolve, saying 
"New York is still an open question."  He also urged the US 
to find some way to talk directly to the Iranians, suggesting 
that the margins of the Sharm el Sheikh meeting might prove 
useful in that regard.  A/S Burns emphasized that we still 
considered referral to the Security Council the best step, 
and noted that our skepticism about Iranian intentions 
remains deep. 
 
MEPP: Keeping Everyone on the Ranch 
----------------------------------- 
 
8. (C) Solana concentrated his meeting with A/S Burns on the 
MEPP.  He was agitated, and openly frustrated, especially 
with the Israelis and Weissglas' statement in particular. 
The only appropriate response, Solana suggested, is to begin 
to define final status issues.  He complained that senior 
American officials are not aware enough of the unnecessary 
suffering and brutality the Israelis are inflicting on the 
Palestinian population. 
 
9. (C) Solana emphasized that the EU fully recognized the 
weaknesses in Palestinian leadership as well.  (Solana met 
with Nabil Sha'ath immediately before his meeting with A/S 
Burns.  Otte said the basic message to Sha'ath had been "if 
you want the EU to help you, you must act responsibly.")  A/S 
Burns underscored to Solana that independent European 
initiatives, such as those being hinted at by the Spanish and 
French FM's, were unhelpful, and would be exploited by the 
Palestinians to avoid taking responsible actions on their 
own. Solana agreed, and reassured Burns that he will keep his 
members committed to the Roadmap as the only way forward. 
Burns emphasized that support for Gaza withdrawal was part of 
a larger picture that includes the entire Roadmap, and could 
also have an impact on events elsewhere in the Middle East. 
 
Preparing for the Ad Hoc Liaison Committee (AHLC) 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
10. (C) Leffler stressed the need for careful preparation for 
the AHLC, now scheduled for December 8 in Oslo.  Otte 
suggested it might be useful if major donors coordinated in 
advance of the session.  Leffler emphasized the need to keep 
this group limited.  He suggested only the US, EU, World 
Bank, and UNRWA be included (as well as the Norwegian hosts). 
 Leffler also expressed frustration with the World Bank's 
reluctance to share the results of its study with major 
donors, saying the need to give their results to the US and 
EU at least in the near future.  In the informal lunch that 
Otte arranged for Quartet envoys, preparation for the AHLC 
was a primary topic for discussion. 
Forum For the Future 
-------------------- 
11. (C) A/S Burns briefed on his meetings in Morocco on FFtF 
planning.  The ministerial is now set for December 11, using 
the New York format.  Morocco wants broad participation, and 
intends to invite also Libya and Syria.  Leffler noted that 
Iran was not being invited, and he and Cooper both opined 
that this was for the best.  Leffler said the Commission was 
"not enthusiastic" about a possible invitation to Sudan.  A/S 
Burns briefed on current thinking in Rabat about how best to 
approach the sensitive issue of education, and Leffler 
expressed sympathy with the Moroccan position.  He suggested 
that inviting an NGO regional authority to introduce the 
topic of education --perhaps making a pitch directly to 
finance ministers at this point -- might prove more useful 
than high-level participation by ministers of education. 
This could then set the stage for a meeting by ministers of 
education in 2005. 
 
12.  (U)  NEA A/S Burns cleared this message. 
 
Schnabel