US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3332

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003332 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - 
ROBERT PALLADINO 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW, Cross Strait Politics, Foreign Policy 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: SECRETARY POWELL'S VISIT TO 
CHINA 
 
A) "The Message Revealed by Powell's Whirlwind Beijing 
Trip" 
 
The pro-status quo "China Times" said in its 
editorial(10/26): 
 
". Since President Bush's remarks before Wen Jiabao 
last year, there has been fine-tuning of the U.S. cross- 
Strait policy.  In addition to asking China not to `use 
force,' the Republican government is more specific in 
asking Taiwan not to `seek independence.'  Taiwan 
should not expect that the United States would defend 
Taiwan under any circumstances.  The Bush government in 
its second term will put heavier pressure on Taiwan 
than before. It will make itself clearer and clearer 
regarding [Taiwan's] constitutional reforms and 
referenda and will no longer tolerate any tension 
caused by any misjudgment by the two sides. 
 
"But what really concerns Taiwan is whether the United 
States will push the two sides to go the negotiation 
table next year.  President Chen Shui-bian and Vice 
President Annette Lu repeatedly stressed that early 
spring of 2005 will be a good time for cross-Strait 
talks.  And now judging from Powell's remarks and the 
remarks by National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice 
on her recent visit to Beijing, one can say there is a 
tacit agreement between Taiwan and the United States 
about resuming cross-Strait talks. . However, the 
United States is pushing for the talks for its own 
interests.  It does not want to get involved in a war 
because of a deadlock, in which the two sides of the 
Strait are to blame.  Since Beijing is insistent on its 
position, [seeking] `concessions by both sides' will 
very likely become the reasoning behind the United 
States exertion of pressure.  Then, in what ways will 
Taiwan be asked to make concessions may be the focus of 
what we should pay attention to. 
 
"In other words, we need to take into account the 
upcoming [APEC] Bush-Hu summit, the new cross-Strait 
policy planning of the new U.S. government, and the 
possibility of resuming cross-Strait talks when 
assessing Powell's Beijing visit." 
 
B) "Speaking Clearly on Anti-independence and Pro- 
unification, Powell Sacrifices Taiwan Independence; He 
Repeatedly Reiterates That the United States Does Not 
Support Taiwan Independence and Overturns the 
`Ambiguity' Policy in One Move" 
 
Washington Correspondent Vincent Chang wrote in the 
conservative/pro-unification "United Daily News" 
(10/26): 
 
"On October 25, in addition to a press conference in 
Beijing, Powell was interviewed by Hong Kong's Phoenix 
Television and CNN.  The U.S. Department of State, on 
the other side of the world, released the entire 
transcripts of the press conference and the interviews 
even faster than the TV broadcasted [them]. 
 
"Powell's remarks denying `Taiwan' is a sovereign and 
independent nation, on the one hand, indicates that 
cross-Strait tension resulting from the various radical 
measures taken by the DPP government since 2003 on the 
referendum issue has made the Bush administration, 
which has been friendly to Taiwan, determined to 
frankly express its attitude without any ambiguity.  On 
the other hand, this reflects the reality that the Bush 
administration must be engaged with the mainland.  As a 
result, it finally decided to sacrifice Taiwan 
independence. 
 
"These two statements by Powell, which can be said as 
unheard of before to Taiwan, will rattle the most 
sensitive nerves between the two sides of the Strait 
for some time.  How President Chen Shui-bian [should] 
face this final move by the United States to completely 
cut off any ambiguous link between `one-China' and 
`Taiwan independence,' and the fact that the United 
States may play a role in `facilitating unification,' 
is testing his wisdom as the head of state." 
 
C) "The Pressure to Resume [Cross-Strait] Dialogue 
Falls on China" 
 
Journalist Huang Chung-jung commented in the pro- 
independence "Liberty Times" (10/26): 
 
". U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell visited Beijing 
and urged China to resume talks with Taiwan.  The move 
evidently shows that the United States is aware that 
the key to the deadlocked cross-Strait situation does 
not lie in Taiwan.  In order to defend its best 
interests in Asia, the United States will definitely 
put the pressure of resuming [cross-Strait] dialogue on 
China so as to effectively alleviate the tensions 
across the Taiwan Strait. . 
 
"Judged from the strategic interests of those 
democratic countries like the United States and Japan, 
it would constitute a direct threat to these countries' 
security if Taiwan were annexed by China.  As a result, 
to maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait is in 
the best interests of these democratic alliance 
countries - namely, Taiwan can maintain its sovereign 
and independent status and help the democratic camp 
whenever necessary.  In the meantime, these countries 
also do not hope to see any moves that could provoke 
Beijing to use force against Taiwan. . 
 
"The United States must urge China to engage in a 
dialogue with Taiwan because alleviating the cross- 
Strait situation will not increase Washington's burdens 
when it has to deal with other issues like North Korea 
and anti-terrorism.  Such a development would also be 
conducive for the re-election of the Bush 
administration.  This is exactly one of the major 
missions of Powell's trip to East Asia." 
 
D) "Powell Visit No Cause for Panic" 
 
The pro-independence, English language "Taipei Times" 
editorialed (10/26): 
 
"U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell is set to discuss 
Taiwan's arms procurement plan with China when visiting 
Beijing next week. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs 
Spokesperson Zhang Qiyue confirmed that Beijing and 
Washington will talk about the US-Taiwan arms deal, the 
cancellation of Taiwan-U.S. military exchanges and the 
Taiwan independence issue. Her words have caused a 
commotion in Taiwan's media. Independent Legislator 
Sisy Chen even said the United States will soon scrap 
its arms deal with Taiwan. 
 
"But if we study the situation carefully, it's clear 
that the United States only says that it expects to 
have a chance to respond to the issue regarding the 
proposed arms deal. In other words, Washington's 
position will be `passive.' This stance is completely 
different from taking the initiative to discuss it, and 
the pan-blue camp is in fact creating trouble for 
itself by sensationalizing the issue. . 
 
"Powell's decision to visit Japan, China and South 
Korea on the eve of the U.S. election is clearly aimed 
at achieving various diplomatic and domestic political 
goals. Although Taiwan needs to keep a close eye on 
Sino-US relations, and take precautions against the 
United States sacrificing Taiwan to win China's 
cooperation for its own advantage, we should watch 
developments calmly, avoiding reading too much into any 
given situation and frightening ourselves as a result." 
 
PAAL