US embassy cable - 04GUAYAQUIL1231

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUAYAQUIL 001231 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, EC, President 
SUBJECT: PSC SUPPORTS PRESIDENTIAL IMPEACHMENT 
 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  On October 25, the Social Christian 
Party (PSC) leadership decided to follow through on party 
leader Leon Febres-Cordero's post-electoral threat to 
pursue impeachment proceedings for misuse of funds 
against President Lucio Gutierrez.  PSC leaders tell us 
there are divisions within the party about pursuing this 
course, but also general reluctance to confront Febres- 
Cordero.  Given half-hearted PSC support, it will be 
difficult for the opposition to attract the 67 votes 
required for impeachment.  Unfortunately, this effort 
will divert the Congress from other urgent issues 
requiring Congressional action.  End Summary. 
 
Resistance within PSC 
--------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) Nebot told the Ambassador and CG on October 26 
that the role of Congress has become a "shameful 
spectacle," with only marginal influence on national 
policy.  He said that while President Gutierrez is bad 
for Ecuador, Vice President Palacios could be worse.  The 
Ambassador emphasized the costs of political instability, 
even by constitutional means, to Ecuadorian democracy and 
the economy.  Without openly criticizing Febres-Cordero, 
Nebot implied his disagreement with the impeachment 
tactic, saying the only thing that would move him to 
challenge the Gutierrez government would be any cut to 
municipal tax resources.  With international oil prices 
at an all-time high, he said, the Gutierrez government is 
less likely to do so.  He denied any desire to run for 
president in 2006, and criticized Ecuador's record of 
negotiating international agreements. 
 
3.  (SBU) PSC President Pascual del Cioppo told PolChief 
in October 25 that he and the grouping within the PSC led 
by Guayaquil mayor Jaime Nebot disagrees with Febres- 
Cordero's decision.  The Nebot group, which includes del 
Cioppo, Guayas prefect Nicolas Lapentti, and Manabi 
Congressman Simon Bustamante, believes ousting Gutierrez 
will damage national interests and is motivated by 
personal, not national motives.  According to del Cioppo, 
Febres-Cordero and his inner circle of Miguel Orellana 
and Javier Niera are behind the move.  Nebot and his 
supporters have been estranged from Febres-Cordero for 
some time; del Cioppo said the two men meet or talk only 
every two months.  Nebot and Lapentti were furious with 
Febres-Cordero for dominating their election night 
victory press conference.  Nebot did not attend the 
October 25 meeting; Febres-Cordero participated from New 
York by telephone. 
 
4.  (SBU) According to del Cioppo, Congressional support 
in favor of impeachment hovers around 60-62 votes, short 
of the 67 needed to impeach.  The PSC will start the 
process using its own 25 votes to create an impeachment 
commission.  The commission would be expected to submit 
its findings to the plenary the week of November 15.  A 
simple majority of 51 votes will be required for Congress 
to declare that the recommendation to impeach has merit. 
Debate and a final vote would occur by December 9.  Del 
Cioppo expressed some worry that the impeachment process 
might tempt Gutierrez to dissolve Congress. 
 
5.  (SBU) Divisions within the PSC over the merits of 
impeachment are already being reported publicly, 
undermining opposition support for the measure.  Some 
opposition members (even from Pachakutik, formerly 
solidly in favor of impeachment) have criticized Febres- 
Cordero's motives.  The President's wife, never a great 
defender of her husband's government, publicly declared 
in the wake of the PSC decision that the PRE and PRIAN 
will stick with the president.  She said the Socialist 
Party (PS) and Popular Democracy Movement (MPD), usually 
counted among the pro-impeachment opposition, might also 
do so. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
6.  (SBU) The decision by the PSC to go forward will not 
cause the fall of the Gutierrez government overnight, and 
at this early stage seems unlikely to come to fruition. 
While opposition to Gutierrez is high, Vice President 
Palacios is not an appealing alternative to the 
opposition.  None of our PSC or ID interlocutors are 
(yet) proposing to pass over the VP in favor of a 
consensus candidate, which would circumvent 
constitutional order. 
 
7.  (SBU) However, at a minimum, the PSC's move to get 
the ball rolling on impeachment will divert the Congress 
from pressing issues and prompt undesirable measures from 
the Executive to attract opposition votes.  Both could 
negatively affect a variety of USG interests.  We have 
therefore emphasized to the opposition the high cost of 
political instability.  Nebot appears to have no stomach 
for challenging Febres-Cordero, and denies any desire to 
run for president in 2006. 
 
HERBERT