US embassy cable - 04CARACAS3291

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 003291 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/21/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PHUM, VE 
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION FRAUD UPDATE HITS DATA TRANSMISSION, 
STATISTICS 
 
REF: A. CARACAS 2840 
 
     B. CARACAS 3070 
 
Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, 
for Reason 1.4(b). 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
1. (C) The Coordinadora Democratica issued on October 12 its 
second report on alleged electoral fraud in the August 15 
recall referendum on President Hugo Chavez.  Using 
statistical analyses, the report alleges that some 2.5 
million votes were manipulated during the referendum to 
reverse what should have been an opposition victory.  The 
report documents irregular patterns in data transmission in 
voting machines where Chavez won, implying that the National 
Electoral Council (CNE) remotely changed the votes recorded 
on the machines.  In presenting the Coordinadora report, 
legal expert Tulio Alvarez accused the GOV of planning to 
commit similar fraud in the October 31 regional elections. 
The Coordinadora's strategy is to continue issuing reports in 
the hope of smoking out proof positive of the GOV's 
complicity.  The report is not conclusive and works against 
the opposition parties' efforts to boost voter participation 
in the upcoming elections.  End summary. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
The Second Report:  More Statistics, and Data Transmission 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
2. (U) The Coordinadora Democratica released on October 12 
the first official report on fraud in the August 15 recall 
referendum on President Hugo Chavez (The September 8 report 
was "preliminary."  See ref a).  The report gives results of 
statistical studies carried out by academics at several 
Venezuelan universities.  Comparing individual machine 
results to results at the level of states and "parrochias" (a 
political subdivision below a municipality), the academics 
concluded that nearly half of voting machines deviated from 
the voting patterns of the areas in which they were located. 
These irregularities correspond to 2.5 million votes.  The 
academics claimed that if the alleged manipulation had not 
occurred, the "Si" votes against Chavez would have won 60% to 
40% (The official results were the converse, with the 
opposition losing 40% to 60%).  Another study applying 
"Benford's law," a mathematical method for detecting numbers 
fraud, to both manual and automated voting centers suggested 
the Si votes won 55% to 45%.  The academics also concluded 
that both referendum audit samples (including the one 
overseen by the Carter Center) were not representative of the 
universe of voting machines. 
 
3. (U) The report gives results of a study of election day 
data transmission between the National Electoral Council 
(CNE) server and the voting machines over the network 
operated by private telephone carrier CANTV.  The 
Coordinadora contends the CNE server and the voting machines 
shared more two-way data than was originally claimed 
(Smartmatic officials had asserted that two-way transmissions 
were limited to the security protocol handshake).  Studying 
network logs, however, Coordinadora investigators discovered 
higher-than-normal levels of data transmission in 52% of 
voting machines.  In these machines, the report alleges, the 
incidence of "No" votes (in favor of Chavez) was much higher 
than the voting machines with normal transmission logs.  The 
implication is that the CNE was able to re-program half the 
voting machines to give Chavez the numerical advantage. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
Alvarez Backs Abstention, Rattles Sabers With Military 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
4. (C) Legal expert Tulio Alvarez (ref a), who is 
coordinating the Coordinadora's fraud documentation efforts, 
delivered the report during an opposition event on October 12 
attended by poloff.  Alvarez repeated his allegation that the 
CNE had committed fraud in the electoral registry and had not 
repaired the voter rolls for the October 31 elections for 
governors and mayors.  Alvarez claimed that the mere 
manipulation of the electoral registry will result in a loss 
for Chavez opponents in all governorships (including the 
 
 
mayor of Caracas district) and 106 mayoralties.  He concluded 
by saying that any opposition politician who goes to the 
regional elections will be guilty of "validating the August 
15 fraud."  Coordinadora representatives later told poloff 
that Alvarez went beyond what was agreed. 
 
5. (C) Alvarez also alleged during his speech that the 
military was involved in the referendum fraud.  Alvarez 
showed a video of a supposed telecommunications network 
control center operated by the military that was reportedly 
used to carry out the fraud.  Alvarez named four mid-level 
military officers who, he alleged, have firsthand knowledge 
of the fraud.  Coordinadora representative D'lsa Solorzano 
told poloff October 25 the video had come just a day before 
the Coordinadora event from an undisclosed source in the 
military.  (Comment:  The film appeared to be a video 
inventory of a telecommunications network control room. 
There were no obvious indications that the control room was 
related to either the military or the elections.  End 
comment.) 
 
6. (C) Alvarez reiterated to PolCouns October 21 that the 
opposition is headed into a crushing electoral defeat because 
of the fraud.  Alvarez said he had presented the information 
to Accion Democratica functionaries, who told him the party 
planned to pursue elections in spite of the likelihood of 
fraud.  Alvarez said he believes the referendum fraud is not 
confined to a handful of people, but also includes employees 
of Smartmatic and some unspecified foreign consultants. 
Solorzano told poloff that new information is constantly 
being passed to the Coordinadora from sources within the CNE, 
Smartmatic, and the military.  She said the Coordinadora 
plans to issue two more reports at monthly intervals to spur 
those with knowledge of the alleged fraud to come forward. 
 
----------------------- 
Legal Remedies Languish 
----------------------- 
 
7. (C) Solorzano, the Coordinadora's legal representative, 
also told poloff that the CNE's rejection of her appeal of 
the referendum results out of hand on September 23 violated 
electoral law (ref b). She asserted that the law requires the 
CNE to admit the appeal and then request within five days the 
required proofs from the appellant.  Instead, Solorzano said, 
the CNE tossed out the appeal for lack of evidence.  She said 
she faced a similar legal paradox at the Supreme Court (TSJ) 
when immediately after the referendum she petitioned for an 
injunction to force the CNE to turn over copies of electoral 
documents.  Instead of deciding on the injunction within the 
48 hours as stipulated in the law, the Court waited more than 
a month to deny her motion on the grounds that the deadline 
for challenging the CNE decision had already passed. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
8. (C) The substance of the Alvarez report is intriguing to 
the interested observer for its revelations about the two-way 
transmissions, but it fails to go beyond the circumstantial. 
The report has political relevance for the regional 
elections, as opposition parties are desperate to get their 
already fatigued and disappointed supporters to the polls. 
Alvarez's prophecy of another massive fraud on October 31 is 
clearly counterproductive to these efforts. 
Brownfield 
 
 
NNNN 
      2004CARACA03291 - CONFIDENTIAL