US embassy cable - 04KUWAIT3635

C O N F I D E N T I A L KUWAIT 003635 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
 
STATE FOR NEA/ARP 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, KU 
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR MEETS AL-SABAH GOVERNOR: FRANK TALK ON 
SUCCESSION, IRAQ 
 
REF: KUWAIT 3580 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Richard LeBaron for reason 1.4 (d) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  During an October 23 meeting, Mubarak 
al-Kabir Governor Shaykh Mubarak al-Humoud al-Sabah shared 
with Ambassador his view that a possible Amiri leadership 
succession in Kuwait would not include Prime Minister Shaykh 
Sabah al-Ahmed.  In addition, the Governor relayed concerns 
that events in Iraq could still negatively impact the 
security of Kuwait.  End Summary. 
 
2. (C/NOFORN) Mubarak al-Kabir Governor Shaykh Mubarak 
al-Humoud al-Sabah told the Ambassador on October 23 that 
should current Amir Shaykh Jabir al-Ahmed al-Sabah pass away, 
National Guard Commander Salim al-Ali al-Salim al-Sabah would 
most likely be appointed Amir by the ruling al-Sabah family. 
Such an appointment would come to Shaykh Salim, should he 
desire it, out of deference to his seniortity in the family. 
The Governor added that in this scenario, current Prime 
Minister Shaykh Sabah al-Ahmed al-Sabah would be appointed 
Crown Prince but would probably retain the role of Prime 
Minister, thus maintaining day-to-day control of the State of 
Kuwait. 
 
3. (C/NOFORN) Responding to a question from the Ambassador, 
the Governor said the Amir was not likely to name a new Crown 
Prince before the death of Shaykh Sa'ad, owing to his deep 
respect for the ailing Crown Prince, who had been "very 
honest and loyal" to the Amir.   As there was no crisis in 
the country, he added,  there was no urgent need for change, 
especially as PM Shaykh Sabah al-Ahmed al-Sabah was "already 
ruling the country." 
 
Concern About Spillover of Southern Iraq Instability 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
4. (C) On Iraq, the Governor expressed concern that the 
continued instability of southern Iraq would begin to 
negatively impact Kuwait.  Although Kuwait has commercial 
interests in Iraq, he said, the possibility of Iraqis 
crossing the border into Kuwait in large numbers was a GOK 
concern. (Note: It was unclear if the Governor was referring 
to refugees or jihadis.  End Note.)  Despite this sentiment, 
the Governor expressed his belief that Iraq would settle down 
within a few months after the scheduled January 2005 
elections. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
5. (C/NOFORN) Although he is a moderately influential member 
of the al-Sabah family and enjoys some access to internal 
family deliberations, we find Shaykh Mubarak's assertion that 
Shaykh Salim al-Ali is next in line for accession to the 
throne unlikely.  While a respected, senior member of the 
al-Sabah family, Shaykh Salim is eighty and does not display 
near the enthusiasm or political acumen of the Prime 
Minister.  Nonetheless, even if appointed, he would present 
little competition to Shaykh Sabah in running the government, 
and could be a symbol of stability and orderly transition. 
 
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LeBaron