US embassy cable - 01HANOI3019

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HANOI 003019 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2011 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PREL, ETRD, VM, HUMANR, DPOL, BTA 
SUBJECT:  10TH NATIONAL ASSEMBLY SESSION: AN OVERVIEW 
 
REF:  A.  HANOI 2953      B.  HANOI 2980 
 
1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES ROBERT C. 
PORTER,  REASON: 1.5 (D) 
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2. (C)  SUMMARY.  THE UPCOMING NATIONAL ASSEMBLY (NA) 
SESSION WILL CONVENE ON NOVEMBER 20.  ITS IMPORTANCE TO 
THE US WILL BE PRIMARILY IN ITS CONSIDERATION -- AND 
EXPECTED RATIFICATION -- OF THE U.S.-VIETNAM BILATERAL 
TRADE AGREEMENT (BTA).  ANOTHER TOP PRIORITY WILL BE TO 
REVISE THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ELECTION LAW IN TIME FOR 
THE 2002 ELECTIONS (FOR THE TERM RUNNING UNTIL 2007), 
APPARENTLY AIMED AT INCREASING THE OVERALL NUMBER OF 
DEPUTIES AND THE NUMBER OF FULL-TIME DEPUTIES.  SEVERAL 
CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS AND REVISED LAWS ON THE 
ORGANIZATION OF THE NA AND THE GOVERNMENT ARE EXPECTED 
TO PROMOTE ADMINISTRATIVE REFORM GOALS GENERALLY.  THE 
VIETNAM HUMAN RIGHTS ACT MAY BE A CONTENTIOUS ISSUE BUT 
LITTLE LIVELY DEBATE IS OTHERWISE NOW EXPECTED.  THE NA 
CONTINUES ITS SLOW EVOLUTION INTO A MORE 
REPRESENTATIVE, MORE GENUINELY DELIBERATE LEGISLATIVE 
BODY, BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERSHADOWED BY THE 
INDISPUTABLE LEADERSHIP ROLE OF THE VIETNAMESE 
COMMUNIST PARTY (VCP).  END SUMMARY. 
 
3.  (U)  THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY GENERALLY CONDUCTS TWO 
SESSIONS EACH YEAR OVER ITS FIVE-YEAR LIFE SPAN.  THE 
TENTH SESSION OF THE 10TH NATIONAL ASSEMBLY WILL 
CONVENE ON NOVEMBER 20 AND IS EXPECTED TO RUN UNTIL 
ABOUT DECEMBER 25.  CHARGE, ALONG WITH OTHER CHIEFS OF 
MISSION, WILL ATTEND ITS OPENING SESSION AS OBSERVERS. 
ITS 450 DELEGATES WILL INITIALLY SIT THROUGH SEVERAL 
DAYS OF WORK REPORTS FROM THE PRIME MINISTER, NA 
CHAIRMAN, CHIEFS OF THE JUDICIAL AND 
SUPERVISION/CONTROL (PROCURACY) ORGANS, AND OTHER 
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SENIOR OFFICIALS BEFORE GETTING DOWN TO THEIR MAIN 
TASKS, WHICH WILL ALSO INCLUDE PASSING A BUDGET AND 
REVIEWING FIVE YEAR SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC PLANS.  THE 
POSSIBILITY HAS BEEN FLOATED OF AN UNUSUAL ELEVENTH 
SESSION IN FEBRUARY 2002 TO COVER LEFT-OVER ITEMS, SUCH 
AS A REVISED LABOR LAW, BUT THIS HAS NOT BEEN 
CONFIRMED. 
 
BTA 
--- 
 
4.  (C)  VIETNAMESE OFFICIALS UP TO THE LEVEL OF 
VCP SECRETARY-GENERAL NONG DUC MANH HAVE MADE EXPLICIT 
THAT A TOP PRIORITY GOAL OF THIS SESSION IS NOT ONLY TO 
CONSIDER BUT ALSO TO RATIFY THE BTA.  SO CERTAIN IS THE 
GVN OF THIS OUTCOME -- MOST LIKELY O/A NOVEMBER 28 (REF 
A) -- THAT S-G MANH IS APPARENTLY PLANNING A TRIP TO 
THE PRC BEGINNING ON NOVEMBER 29, AND DEPUTY PRIME 
MINISTER NGUYEN TAN DZUNG WILL LEAD A LARGE BTA-RELATED 
DELEGATION TO THE US ON DECEMBER 9.  NA FOREIGN AFFAIRS 
COMMITTEE VICE CHAIRMAN NGO ANH DUNG TOLD POL/C ON 
NOVEMBER 14 THAT HIS COMMITTEE HAD RECOMMENDED 
RATIFICATION AND THAT HE FULLY EXPECTED THE FULL NA 
APPROVAL BY WITHIN THE FIRST WEEK OF THE UPCOMING 
SESSION.  HE NOTED THAT BTA WAS CLEARLY IN THE 
INTERESTS OF BOTH COUNTRIES, AND THAT THE DECISION BY 
THE US SENATE TO DE-LINK VOTES ON BTA AND VHRA (UNLIKE 
THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES' VOTE, HE STRESSED) MADE 
NA APPROVAL MUCH EASIER. 
 
ELECTION LAW 
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------------ 
 
5.  (U)  VARIOUS OFFICIALS AND PUBLIC STATEMENTS HAVE 
INDICATED THAT REVISIONS TO THE NA ELECTION LAW IN 
ADVANCE OF THE APRIL 2002 NA ELECTIONS (FOR THE 2002- 
2007 TERM) IS ANOTHER TOP PRIORITY AND WILL PROBABLY BE 
CONSIDERED EARLY IN THE SESSION.  FOLLOWING THE CLOSURE 
OF ITS FOURTH PLENUM ON NOVEMBER 13, THE VCP CENTRAL 
COMMITTEE ANNOUNCED ITS "IDEAS REGARDING THE DIRECTION 
OF THE 11TH NATIONAL ASSEMBLY."  THE POST-PLENUM 
ANNOUNCEMENT CALLED FOR MEASURES TO ENSURE THAT THE 
NEWLY ELECTED DELEGATES HAVE "SUFFICIENT STANDARDS" AND 
EMERGE FROM AN "APPROPRIATE STRUCTURE RESPONDING TO THE 
DEMANDS OF THE NEW SITUATION AND TASKS."  (NOTE:  THE 
PUBLIC STATEMENT DID NOT PROVIDE MORE INSIGHT ON THESE 
"NEW" ISSUES OR WHAT STRUCTURES WOULD BE MORE 
"APPROPRIATE."  END NOTE) 
 
6.  (C)  ACCORDING TO THE NA'S NGO ANH DUNG, TWO 
PROBABLE CHANGES TO THE LAW WOULD BE TO INCREASE THE 
OVERALL NUMBER OF DELEGATES FROM 450 TO SOMEWHERE 
BETWEEN 500 AND 550, AND TO INCREASE THE NUMBER OF FULL 
TIME DELEGATES.  CURRENTLY, ONLY ABOUT 10 PCT OF 
DELEGATES WORK FULL-TIME AT THE NA, INCLUDING THE NA 
CHAIRMAN, NA VICE CHAIRMEN, AND CHAIRMEN OF THE MAJOR 
COMMITTEES.  HE SAID THE GOAL WOULD BE TO HAVE ABOUT 25 
PCT FULL-TIME DELEGATES, INCLUDING AT LEAST ONE FULL- 
TIME REPRESENTATIVE FROM EACH PROVINCE. 
 
7.  (C) SEPARATELY, NGUYEN CHI DZUNG, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF 
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OF THE NA'S LEGISLATIVE STUDIES JOURNAL, INDICATED THAT 
500 DELEGATES WAS THE PREFERRED TARGET, INCLUDING 150 
FULL-TIME DELEGATES.  DZUNG ADDED THAT ANOTHER GOAL 
WOULD BE TO ENCOURAGE MORE NON-PARTY DELEGATES (WHO 
OCCUPY ONLY ABOUT 14 PCT OF ALL SEATS NOW), AND THAT 
THE PARTY WOULD NO LONGER PROPOSE THAT ABOUT ONE-THIRD 
OF CURRENT NA DELEGATES BE RE-ELECTED. 
 
8.  (C)  DUNG CONFIRMED THAT THE EXISTING NOMINATION 
PROCESS IN WHICH VARIOUS ORGANS, INCLUDING THE VCP AND 
THE VIETNAM FATHERLAND FRONT, PUT FORWARD CANDIDATES 
FOR EACH PROVINCE WOULD REMAIN INTACT AFTER REVISIONS 
TO THE ELECTION LAW.  HE STRESSED THAT THE CURRENT 
SYSTEM ENSURES MORE CANDIDATES THAN SLOTS, AND THAT 
ELECTIONS ARE PROVINCE-WIDE.  THE CONSTITUTION MANDATES 
THAT, IN PRINCIPLE, ELECTIONS ARE BASED ON "UNIVERSAL, 
EQUAL, DIRECT, AND SECRET SUFFRAGE." 
 
ORGANIZATION OF NA AND GOVERNMENT 
--------------------------------- 
 
9.  (C)  BILLS TO REVISE THE ORGANIZATION OF THE NA AND 
OF THE GOVERNMENT ARE ALSO ON THE AGENDA OF THIS 
SESSION, AND WILL PROBABLY BE PASSED.  (REF B REPORTED 
ON THE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT PROCESS, WHICH APPEARS 
SET TO CONCLUDE WITH A SHARPLY FOCUSED DEBATE ONLY ON A 
FEW PRIMARILY ADMINISTRATIVE CHANGES TO THE 
CONSTITUTION AT THIS SESSION.)  DUNG NOTED THAT THE NA 
BILL WOULD ENHANCE THE NA'S SUPERVISORY ROLE AND MAKE 
MORE EXPLICIT ITS OVERSIGHT POWER REGARDING GOVERNMENT 
ACTIVITIES AND FUNCTIONS.  (NOTE:  THE CONSTITUTION 
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ALREADY GIVES THE NA "SUPREME CONTROL OVER ALL 
ACTIVITIES OF THE STATE."  END NOTE) 
 
10.  (C)  OTHER CHANGES MIGHT ALSO INCLUDE 
ESTABLISHMENT OF NEW NA COMMITTEES ON SUPERVISORY 
AFFAIRS AND ON PUBLIC COMPLAINTS, DUNG ADDED.  HE ALSO 
NOTED THAT THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND LIMITED MEETING 
TIME OF THE NA MADE IT DIFFICULT TO PERFORM THESE 
FUNCTIONS.  ACCORDING TO TRAN NHUNG, INTERNATIONAL 
AFFAIRS EDITOR FOR QUAN DOI NHAN DAN (PEOPLE'S ARMY 
DAILY), AN ADDITIONAL REVISION MIGHT BE TO MANDATE 
THREE RATHER THAN THE CURRENT TWO ANNUAL NA SESSIONS. 
 
11.  (C)  THE REVISIONS TO THE LAW ON THE ORGANIZATION 
OF THE GOVERNMENT MAY INCLUDE SOME ALTERATIONS IN THE 
LINE-UP OF MINISTRIES, DUNG SAID.  IT WOULD BE BETTER, 
HE CLAIMED, TO REORGANIZE THE WHOLE ARRAY OF 
MINISTERIAL-EQUIVALENT ENTITIES AND TO CLARIFY HOW THEY 
SHOULD FIT MORE NEATLY INTO THE OVERALL GOVERNMENTAL 
STRUCTURE.  HE PREDICTED NO MAJOR SURPRISES, HOWEVER. 
TRAN NHUNG NONETHELESS SPECULATED THAT THE NA MIGHT 
GIVE ITS BLESSING TO A FEW LONG-RUMORED SENIOR 
PERSONNEL CHANGES, INCLUDING MINISTER OF TRADE VU KHOAN 
REPLACING DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER NGUYEN MANH CAM, AND 
VICE MINISTER OF INVESTMENT AND PLANNING VO HONG PHUC 
TAKING THE PLACE OF MINISTER TRAN XUAN GIA.  MOST 
OBSERVERS HAVE ASSUMED THAT MAJOR MINISTERIAL SWAPS 
WOULD AWAIT THE NEW NA NEXT SUMMER, HOWEVER. (NOTE: 
BOTH KHOAN AND GIA ARE NOW SLATED TO TRAVEL AS PART OF 
DPM DZUNG'S DELEGATION TO THE US IN DECEMBER IN THEIR 
CURRENT CAPACITIES. END NOTE) 
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CONTENTIOUS ISSUES:  VHRA 
------------------------- 
 
12.  (C)  AS NOTED IN REF B, EARLIER EXPECTATIONS OF A 
LIVELY DEBATE ON COMPREHENSIVE CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE, 
OR EVEN ON SPECIFIC PROPOSED AMENDMENTS THAT RECEIVED 
WIDESPREAD CRITICISM, WERE EXPLICITLY DAMPENED BY 
STATEMENTS FROM THE 4TH PLENUM AND BY S-G MANH THAT 
ONLY "URGENT" AMENDMENTS THAT ARE "REALISTIC" AND HAVE 
"WON CONSENSUS" WOULD BE ON THE TABLE FOR THIS NA 
SESSION.  THE ONLY SUBJECT THAT CONTINUES TO BE CITED 
AS A POSSIBL LIVEWIRE FOR DISCUSSION IS THE VHRA. 
SEVERAL COMENTATORS HAVE NOTED THAT DELEGATES MAY FEEL 
A DUTY TO SPOUT OUT AGAINST THIS "INTERFERENCE IN 
VIETNAM'S INTERNAL AFFAIRS," AND THERE REMAINS A 
POSSIBILITY OF A FORMAL NA DENUNCIATION OF THIS BILL. 
NO CREDIBLE OBSERVERS HAVE PREDICTED EVEN THAT A SUDDEN 
U.S. SENATE VOTE IN FAVOR OF VHRA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL 
WEEKS WOULD DERAIL BTA, HOWEVER. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
13.  (C)  AS VIETNAM CONTINUES ITS SLOW AND USUALLY 
STEADY EVOLUTION INTO A SOCIETY INCREASINGLY RULED BY 
LAWS AND MORE TRANSPARENT, ACCOUNTABLE INSTITUTIONS, 
THE ENHANCED PROMINENCE OF THE NA OVER THE PAST DECADE 
IN PARTICULAR HAS BEEN A WELCOME DEVELOPMENT.  NONG DUC 
MANH DURING HIS OWN TENURE AS CHAIRMAN ACTIVELY 
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FOSTERED THIS TREND, INCLUDING SUCH INNOVATIONS AS 
TELEVISED DEBATES AND QUESTION-AND-ANSWER SYSTEMS FOR 
STATE LEADERS.  NOW IN HIS NEW SEAT AS PARTY CHIEF, HE 
SEEMS TO BE PULLING BACK FROM THIS ADVOCACY, AND THE 
STATURE OF THE NA MAY SUFFER, AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.  HE 
FLATLY ANNOUNCED IN OCTOBER THAT THE NA "WOULD" APPROVE 
THE BTA AND THE ORGANIZATIONAL BILLS CITED ABOVE, FOR 
EXAMPLE.  THE 4TH PLENUM'S SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL PRE-NA 
SESSION AND ITS EXPLICIT "GUIDANCE" ON CONSTITUTIONAL 
AMENDMENTS ARE FURTHER INDICATIONS OF THE FIRM 
INTENTION OF THE VCP TO DOMINATE THE ACTIVITIES OF THE 
NA.  MANH'S OWN EXPECTED TRAVELS (EVEN THOUGH AS A NA 
DELEGATE HIMSELF FOR HANOI HE MIGHT WELL BE EXPECTED TO 
PARTICIPATE IN THE ENTIRE SESSION) AND THOSE OF DPM 
DZUNG'S DELEGATION TO THE U.S. WILL ALMOST INEVITABLY 
DOMINATE LOCAL NEWS COVERAGE DURING THE FINAL WEEKS OF 
THE NA IN A WAY THAT WILL DIMINISH PUBLIC ATTENTION TO 
ITS PROCEEDINGS. 
 
14.  (C)  ALL OF THIS MAY BE A SIMPLE REFLECTION THAT 
VIETNAM AND ITS MEDIA ARE INCREASINGLY LESS SINGLE- 
ISSUE ORIENTED.  IT MAY ALSO BE A SIGN, HOWEVER, OF A 
CONTINUING COMPETITIO FOR INFLUENCE AND POWER BETWEEN 
MANH AND NA CHARMAN NGUYEN VAN AN.  AN HAD BEEN ONE OF 
THE MAJO LOSERS IN THE S-G SWEEPSTAKES THIS PAST 
SPRING ND WAS REPORTEDLY THE CHOICE PUSHED BY FORMER 
PRESIDENT AND THEN-SENIOR ADVISER LE DUC ANH, NOW SAID 
TO BE IN CRITICAL CONDITION FOLLOWING A RECENT STROKE. 
ANOTHER POSSIBLE -- AND NOT MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE -- 
EXPLANATION IS THAT THERE IS GROWING CONCERN WITHIN 
PARTY CIRCLES THAT AN OVERLY ASSERTIVE NA MAY NOT BEST 
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SERVE THE INTERESTS OF STRONG VCP LEADERSHIP AT A TIME 
OF NATIONAL CONCERN OVER STABILITY AND "SOLIDARITY." 
PORTER 
 
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