US embassy cable - 04FRANKFURT9139

UNCLAS FRANKFURT 009139 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, ECON, PINR, GM 
SUBJECT: Baden-Wuerttemberg Minister-President Teufel 
Expected to Declare Intentions Soon 
 
REF:  A) 03 Frankfurt 10353 B) 04 Frankfurt 5551  C) 04 
 
Frankfurt 6002  D) 04 Frankfurt 6769  E) 04 Frankfurt 7197 
 
Sensitive but unclassified; not for internet distribution 
 
1.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  Recent speculation by Baden- 
Wuerttemberg Christian Democrat (CDU) Minister-President 
Erwin Teufel on a possible bid for re-election has added 
fuel to the state's smoldering leadership debate.  Several 
party organizations, including the Junge Union (the CDU's 
youth organization), have publicly asked Teufel to retire. 
Former national CDU chairman (and longtime Bundestag caucus 
chief) Wolfgang Schaeuble has also asked Teufel to step 
aside.  An October 19 Stuttgarter Zeitung poll showed 73% 
of the state's voters as favoring Teufel's retirement. 
Insiders predict that Teufel will be forced to decide at a 
CDU executive board meeting on October 30.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (U) In an October 4 interview with national magazine 
Der Spiegel, Teufel cited his high approval rating and 
expressed optimism that the CDU would receive an absolute 
majority if he ran again. Two days later, the Baden- 
Wuerttemberg Junge Union (JU) became the first major 
executive organization to call for Teufel's retirement. 
Several CDU county organizations joined the JU's call, and 
CDU labor wing president Christian Baumler also spoke out 
against Teufel's re-election.  Although Minister Rudolf 
Koeberle (the state's representative in Berlin) and Social 
Minister Tanja Goenner support another term for Teufel, 
Baden-Wuerttemberg Agricultural Minister Willi Staechele 
recently expressed public doubts on Teufel's value to the 
CDU in 2006 state elections. 
 
3.  (U) On October 19, the Stuttgarter Zeitung (the state's 
leading daily newspaper) published the results of a recent 
telephone poll showing 73% of respondents in favor of 
Teufel's retirement and 19% supporting his re-election. The 
poll reflects the continuing downward trend of Minister- 
President Teufel's support among the state's voters. 
 
4.  (SBU) Former CDU national chairman and Bundestag caucus 
chief Wolfgang Schaeuble recently called for a change in 
leadership during an internal meeting of Baden- 
Wuerttemberg's 34 Bundestag deputies.  CDU insiders expect 
the Teufel debate to dominate the party's executive board 
meeting in Stuttgart on October 30.  Baden-Wuerttemberg 
press reports predict Minister-President Teufel will be 
forced to put his cards on the table, and some leading CDU 
officials are lobbying for the meeting to be held even 
earlier. 
 
5.  (SBU) COMMENT: Rumors of the crafty and resourceful 
Teufel's demise have often been greatly exaggerated. 
However, Teufel's mishandling of recent scandals among his 
FDP coalition partners and the granting of lucrative 
private sector jobs to retiring political allies (reftels) 
has accelerated the CDU's call for the longtime Minister- 
President's exit from office.  CDU insiders compare the 
Teufel struggle to longtime chancellor Helmut Kohl's 
decision to run (unsuccessfully) for re-election in 1998 
and fear that it could have similarly negative consequences 
for the national party, especially given Baden- 
Wuerttemberg's status as a perennial CDU stronghold.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
BODDE