US embassy cable - 04THEHAGUE2735

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 002735 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, TU, NL, EUN 
SUBJECT: CAUTIOUS DUTCH REACTION TO EC REPORT ON TURKEY 
 
THIS CABLE IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  PLEASE HANDLE 
ACCORDINGLY. 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  The Dutch government has officially 
characterized the October 6 European Commission report on 
Turkey, including its recommendation that a date be set for 
accession negotiations, as "a good basis for decision making 
by the European Council in December."  Parliament also 
received the report favorably, with all major parties in 
favor of starting negotiations -- albeit disagreeing on 
when.  The Dutch public, however, remains skeptical about 
Turkey's European credentials, although calls for a 
referendum on Turkish accession have so far gained no 
momentum.  The government will continue to tread cautiously 
on Turkey, seeking to balance its EU Presidency obligations 
against the mixed feelings of Dutch citizens while trying to 
avoid divisions within the ruling coalition.  End summary. 
 
Government's public reaction 
---------------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) Immediately following the October 6 publication of 
the EC report on Turkey, acting Dutch Prime Minister Gerrit 
Zalm described the report as "thorough and balanced" and "a 
good basis" for decision making in December."  Zalm, who had 
formerly been highly critical of Turkish accession to the 
EU, stopped short of endorsing beginning negotiations, but 
stressed that Dutch citizens should be "reassured" by 
Commission proposals for an extended transition period for 
Turkish migrants after accession and the condition that 
accession not drain the EU budget. He also stressed that 
"positive developments" in the areas of human rights, 
freedom of speech, and religious freedom "must continue." 
Perhaps anticipating domestic criticism of the government's 
response to the report, Zalm emphasized that the 
Netherlands' "mouth is gagged" while it holds the EU 
Presidency as other member states monitor Dutch comments 
closely. 
 
3.  (SBU) A few days later on October 15, the GONL sent a 
letter to parliament reiterating Zalm's earlier comments. 
Again finding the Report to be "a good basis for decision 
making in December," the letter stated that "The decision on 
whether or not to open negotiations will have to take into 
account the suggestions and issues raised by the Commission" 
-- again stopping short of an outright endorsement of 
beginning negotiations. 
 
4.  (SBU) Explaining the government's letter to the press, 
acting Prime Minister Zalm hinted that the Dutch cabinet was 
itself divided on how soon negotiations with Turkey should 
begin.  He was confident, however, that the cabinet would 
have a clear position on the matter by the time of the 
December European Council.  Zalm described Foreign Minister 
Bot's public speculation that negotiations could probably 
start in the second half of 2005 (and could not be put off 
until 2008, as some suggested) as premature. 
 
Parliament's reaction 
--------------------- 
 
5.  (SBU) The Commission report was well received in the 
Dutch parliament.  All the main political parties supported 
starting negotiations with Turkey on the conditions proposed 
by the Commission.  They remain divided, however, as to when 
these negotiations should begin.  Spokesmen for the 
coalition Christian Democratic (CDA) and Liberal (VVD) 
parties urged caution; CDA floorleader Verhagen, for 
example, argued against setting a date until Turkey is in 
full compliance with the Copenhagen criteria on respect for 
human rights and the rule of law.  Verhagen and the 
spokesmen for the other major parties, however, also made 
clear that they would not bind the government's hands, and 
that they would support an EU consensus decision. 
 
Public opinion skeptical but can be won over 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
6.  (SBU) Large elements of public, and some smaller parties 
in parliament, remain skeptical about the benefits of 
Turkish accession.  Geert Wilders, the former VVD (Liberal) 
party member who recently split with the party leadership on 
this issue, continues to attract followers from those 
worried about inflows of Turkish workers.  Several recent 
polls indicate that if a referendum on Turkish accession (as 
proposed in France) were held today, a majority would 
oppose.  On the other hand, although some politicians, 
including VVD leader van Aartsen, have called for a such a 
referendum, so far there has been no obvious momentum for 
it. 
 
7. (SBU) While skeptical, the Dutch public does not come out 
strongly opposed to starting negotiations on Turkish 
accession.  According to an October 5 poll, 53 percent 
support starting negotiations, and 61 percent support future 
accession if Turkey has complied with a clear set of 
criteria.  Supporters list among Turkey's advantages that it 
would be a bridge to the Arab world, that membership would 
enhance European security, and that Turkey would benefit to 
the Union's economy. 
 
COMMENT: 
------- 
 
8.  (SBU) Although skeptical, the pragmatic Dutch seem 
prepared, in the main, to go along with an EU consensus 
decision to begin negotiations on Turkish accession on a 
date to be determined by the European Council in December. 
That said, underlying doubts about Turkish accession -- and 
suspicions about the EU in general -- still have the 
potential to create domestic political challenges for the 
coalition, especially if Wilders or others are able to 
mobilize this dissatisfaction into an effective political 
force.  For now, the government is treading cautiously 
rather than aggressively preparing the population for a 
positive decision in December. 
 
Russel