US embassy cable - 04RANGOON1385

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 001385 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV; PACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2014 
TAGS: PINS, PREL, PGOV, BM, Ethnics 
SUBJECT: SPDC-KNU TALKS ABORTED; POSSIBLE RESUMPTION IN 
DECEMBER-JANUARY 
 
REF: A. RANGOON 1372 
     B. RANGOON 1370 
     C. RANGOON 960 AND PREVIOUS 
     D. BANGKOK 7303 
 
Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
1.  (C)  Summary:  After perfunctory SPDC-KNU talks on 
October 19 failed to get off the ground because of changes in 
GOB leadership, the regime will likely resume negotiations in 
December-January, when the dust from deposed Prime Minister 
Khin Nyunt's "retirement," (hanging over Military 
Intelligence-MI-which has had the lead on ethnic relations), 
is expected to settle.  Meanwhile, a senior Thai military 
intelligence officer came calling from Bangkok to reassure 
the Burmese that the RTG will not interfere in their internal 
affairs. End Summary. 
 
2. (SBU)  Despite confusion surrounding changes in the 
Burmese regime's leadership, the latest round of SPDC-KNU 
talks opened in Rangoon on October 19 following several 
earlier delays (ref C).  Brig Gen Kyaw Thein led the SPDC 
team while Pado Tu Tu Lay and Pado David Htaw headed the 
16-member KNU delegation.  Given a temporary vacuum left on 
the Burmese side by Prime Minister Khin Nyunt's "retirement" 
on the evening of October 19 (refs A and B), the discussions 
apparently reverted to being largely social occasions.  SPDC 
representatives "escorted" the KNU delegation to Bago for a 
farewell luncheon on October 20, following meals together the 
previous day.  The KNU team proceeded to Hpa-an (Karen State) 
from Bago and crossed the Thai border to Mae Sot on October 
21.  Press reports suggesting that members of the KNU 
delegation were detained or went missing at some point along 
the line are incorrect, according to reliable local sources. 
 
3.  (C)  U Khun Myat (aka Khunmyat Lahtaw), a wealthy Kachin 
businessman and well established government intermediary on 
ethnic affairs, told poloff on October 22 that negotiations 
for a permanent cease-fire between the GOB and the Karen 
National Union (KNU) will resume in December-January.  The 
exact dates the government will propose for the talks will 
depend on when the current "re-shuffle" within Military 
Intelligence has been completed and when the National 
Convention (NC) will resume its deliberations.  If meetings 
are conducted under the NC's umbrella in December, the 
negotiations are likely to be pushed off until after the 
first of the new year.  If the Convention does not crank up 
until January, discussions with the Karens could begin 
earlier. 
 
4.  (C)  The SPDC's basic policies of "Non-Disintegration of 
the Union" and "National Consolidation" remain firmly in 
place, emphasized U Khun Myat.  He noted that while MI will 
continue to have the lead on negotiations with the ethnics, 
he thought it likely that whomever is appointed as the senior 
negotiator would report through the new MI chief to the newly 
appointed "Secretary One," Lt. General Thein Sein (refs A and 
B), rather than to the Prime Minister (as was the case under 
Khin Nyunt).  However, Khun Myat added, the deposed Prime 
Minister's policy of offering the cease-fire groups (CFGs) 
business concessions and other commercial "privileges" will 
likely remain in place. 
 
5.  (C)  In a related but separate development, Lt. General 
Samut Phoke (sp?), a Thai military intelligence officer, 
happened by U Khun Myat's house while poloff was meeting with 
the latter.  He was accompanied by an employee of Bangkok 
Airways, who was there to discuss expansion of that service's 
flights between Bangkok and Rangoon.  U Khun Myat, who 
apparently has interests in Bangkok Airways, had facilitated 
meetings for the visiting General to re-assure Burmese 
counterparts who had expressed unease about the RTG's being 
out in front with public announcements earlier in the week on 
local leadership changes (ref D). 
Martinez