US embassy cable - 04QUITO2810

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 002810 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/21/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, EC, President 
SUBJECT: RETURN TO NORMALCY: PRESIDENT SURVIVES ANOTHER DAY 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney, for reasons 1.4 (b&d). 
 
1.  (C) Minutes after local elections concluded on October 
17, Ecuador's opposition returned to its game of political 
"chicken," calling for the impeachment of President Gutierrez 
for illegal use of public funds for campaign purposes.  The 
judiciary, for its part, issued what some charaterize as a 
"moral sanction" of the President.  Despite the impression 
promoted by the opposition press of buzzards circling the 
Gutierrez government, GoE insiders tell us that the President 
is maneuvering behind the scenes stave off these challenges 
in the short run by shoring up its alliances and mollifying 
the main opposition.  End Summary. 
 
Congress Back At It:  Impeachment Talk from ID and PSC 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
2.  (C)  During an election night press conference, PSC 
leader Leon Febres-Cordero accused President Gutierrez of 
corruption and incapacity and pledged to renew efforts toward 
his ouster.  The next morning, Democratic Left Party (ID) 
leader Rodrigo Borja reinitiated debate over President 
Gutierrez' fate by calling for impeachment for improper use 
of public funds for campaign purposes.  Pachakutik leaders 
immediately endorsed the measure, and media focused on the 
emerging vote count in Congress.  As of October 20, no vote 
had been called, but the opposition claimed to have mustered 
62 of the 67 votes necessary. 
 
Judiciary Up In Arms Too 
------------------------ 
 
3.  (C) The Supreme Court, meanwhile, smarting from criticism 
from Gutierrez on the campaign trail that the judicial system 
was partial to political interests (read PSC), emitted a 
statement on October 20 "energetically rejecting" Gutierrez' 
public warning that the people might burn down the courts in 
a repeat of the events of January 21, referring to the 
popular ouster of former president Jamil Mahuad in 2000.  The 
court stopped short of accusing Gutierrez of a crime; PSC 
leaders claimed it represented a "moral sanction." 
 
An Insiders View 
---------------- 
 
4.  (C) Presidential Secretary Carlos Polit told the 
Ambassador on October 20 that he personally oversaw campaign 
spending for the Government and has the documentation to 
counter any claims of improper use of public funds.  He also 
said that Government Minister Raul Baca has recently engaged 
in secret (separate) talks with Febres-Cordero, President of 
Congress Landazuri (ID), and President of the Supreme Court 
Hugo Quintana on these issues.  The talks had largely (75%) 
resolved these challenges to the Gutierrez government, 
despite media hype to the contrary.  The discussions with 
Febres-Cordero and Landazuri (of the ID) produced an deal 
whereby the government promised to get members of Gutierrez 
family out of the public spotlight in return for the ID and 
PSC backing off their efforts to generate a 2/3 majority in 
Congress in favor of impeachment.  The family members include 
Renan Borbua, the President's cousin, reviled by 
Febres-Cordero, who will be sent abroad for several months as 
an itinerant ambassador.  Napoleon Vila, the President's 
brother-in-law, also will not be given a government position 
in the wake of his failed candidacy for prefect of Pichincha. 
 Asked by the Ambassador about the fate of Oscar Ajerve, the 
president's campaign advisor blamed for several recent 
Gutierrez' missteps, Polit said there was no plan for Ajerve 
to go "for the moment." 
 
5.  (C) Polit said that he and Baca had won a commitment from 
Gutierrez to turn Presidential appointment decisions over to 
them, to prevent future blunders.  He cited as ludicrous the 
petition by disgraced former Social Welfare minister Patricio 
Acosta to Gutierrez for a new posting as Minister or 
Ambassador with ministerial rank.  Polit said he promptly 
turned the corrupt Acosta down flat, causing Acosta to 
publicly disaffiliate from the PSP which he co-founded with 
Gutierrez.  Polit said that Ajerve has been a disaster as 
campaign advisor to the President for the local elections; 
Polit expressed shocked that the President would appear to 
television studios to be interviewed on election day.  This 
gave the impression of presidential desperation over vote 
results, he said.  To counter that impression, Polit and Baca 
urged the President take the higher road in a brief televised 
address to the nation the day after the election, in which 
the President congratulated winners and losers, and called 
for dialogue with the opposition on national interests. 
 
 
Possible Cabinet Changes Imminent 
--------------------------------- 
 
6.  (C) Asked about possible changes in the Cabinet which 
Gutierrez has hinted publicly, Polit said that the Education, 
Health and Social Welfare ministers might be changed.  Polit 
said Baca's position, and that of Finance Minister Mauricio 
Yepez was secure.  FM Zuquilanda is also secure, although 
past protocol gaffes (including the seating of Secretary 
Powell at the FM's and not the President's table during an 
OASGA lunch) allowed Polit to secure veto power over the 
Foreign Ministry on all protocol decisions.  The next big 
event scheduled is President Fox's November 8-9 visit.  The 
Ambassador requested Polit's assistance scheduling Secretary 
Rumsfeld's appointment on November 15.  Polit was unaware of 
the Defense Ministerial of the Americas, but pledged to 
support the request. 
Comment 
------- 
 
7.  (C) Senior opposition leaders Febres-Cordero and Rodrigo 
Borja immediately wrested the political spotlight from their 
respective charges (the victorious Moncayo in Quito and Nebot 
in Guayaquil) to re-focus it instead on their challenge to 
the president.  Gutierrez' more able lieutenants are 
maneuvering behind the scenes to help the President survive 
another day.  The combination of moves to stave off 
Congressional action against the President and quiet his 
critics may succeed in the short run, since there is no 
likely successor acceptable to both Febres-Cordero and Borja. 
 However, Gutierrez is unlikely to disappoint those eagerly 
awaiting new controversy. 
KENNEY