US embassy cable - 04ANKARA6000

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 006000 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2029 
TAGS: MARR, PGOV, PREL, PTER, TU 
SUBJECT: TURKEY'S FIRST CIVILIAN NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL 
SECRETARY-GENERAL IS SETTLING IN 
 
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Classified By: AMBASSADOR ERIC. S. EDELMAN, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) 
 
1. (S)  Summary: In an October 15 introductory call by the 
Ambassador, Yigit Alpogan, the first civilian 
Secretary-General in the seventy year history of the Turkish 
 
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National Security Council (NSC), outlined plans to downsize 
and further "civilianize" the NSC staff.  Alpogan provided 
little substance on Turkey's security concerns, opining only 
that Turkey did not view Iran's nuclear program as an 
immediate threat and expressing the hope that the US would 
take action against the PKK once the US Presidential 
elections had passed.  Alpogan's reticence to speak about 
Iraq and other priority issues for Turkey may be a function 
of his lack of tenure in the job or could signal further 
marginalization of the NSC as Turkey consolidates reforms in 
anticipation of an EU decision in December to start accession 
talks.  It is too early to tell but we have an opportunity to 
help shape the NSC's development.  As he settles into the job 
we may seek an APNSA Rice call Alpogan to congratulate him on 
his appointment and offer US assistance to his effort to 
restructure the NSC staff.  End Summary. 
 
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CIVILIANIZING THE NSC 
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2. (C) Ambassador, accompanied by DCM and Acting POLMILCOUNS, 
called on Turkey's first civilian NSC Secretary-General, 
Yigit Alpogan, during his second week on the job.  Alpogan, 
who was unaccompanied during the meeting, said he was still 
learning the organization's structure and didn't plan to make 
any immediate changes.  However, he expected the current NSC 
staffing of 300 to decline and diversify from the traditional 
reliance on military personnel.  In Alpogan's estimation, the 
military was already well-represented at the NSC and 
additional military personnel would be unnecessary.  In line 
with that, Alpogan's Principal Deputy was a Major General, a 
downgrade from the three-star position it was when the SecGen 
position was held by a four-star general, and his other 
deputies were civilians with military backgrounds.  In 
addition, Alpogan had requested from the MFA three foreign 
service officers to serve as personal advisors.  In response 
to Ambassador's offer to share the USG experience in 
establishing a National Security Council and adjusting it to 
serve the needs of different administrations, Alpogan 
welcomed relevant historical information. 
 
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REGIONAL SECURITY 
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3. (S) In a discussion of Turkey's regional security issues, 
Alpogan revealed very little.  When prompted by the 
Ambassador, Alpogan acknowledged there had been a high level 
discussion between the Prime Minister, the MFA and the 
Turkish General Staff on Turkey's concerns in Iraq, in which 
the NSC did not participate.  He said the GOT was closely 
watching the US election process and hoped that the USG would 
take some steps against the PKK after November 2.  Ambassador 
noted USG actions already taken to get the PKK listed as a 
terrorist organization by the EU and to engage the Iraqi 
Interim Government (IIG) in a trilateral effort against the 
PKK.  He emphasized that the USG took seriously Turkey's 
concerns about demographic changes in Kirkuk and that we had 
been working to counsel all sides.  In response to 
Ambassador's mention of Coalition Provisional Authority Paul 
Bremer's discussions with Barzani and Talabani, Alpogan 
opined that guarantees from Barzani didn't mean much. 
 
4. (S) Regarding Iran's nuclear program, Alpogan said the 
issue had not crossed his desk but, judging by Prime Minister 
Erdogan's September visit to Tehran, Turkey would try to 
convince Iran to cooperate with the IAEA.  Alpogan indicated 
support for the EU-3 efforts to sway Tehran.  In response to 
the Ambassador's enumeration of the many countries who had 
dismantled their nuclear capabilities, Alpogan stressed his 
belief that Iran was different.  There was an internal 
struggle between the "so-called conservatives" and the 
reformers that had even impacted Turkish companies whose 
contracts for a new airport and cellular service were 
canceled.  In his view the reformers wouldn't gain power 
anytime soon. 
 
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COMMENT 
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5. (S) Alpogan's appointment as the first civilian 
Secretary-General in the 70-year history of Turkey's NSC is 
 
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the latest stage in reforming this institution to comply with 
EU norms.  Previously a military-dominated organization with 
significant operational responsibilities, the NSC now has 
more civilian members and offers advice, not edicts, to the 
government.  The reduction in rank of the deputy SG position 
may suggest that the flow of information between the military 
and the NSC staff will be diminished; in any event, the 
elimination of a four-star SecGen and a three-star deputy 
will reduce the staff's access to military leaders. 
 
6. (S) It is too early to tell how much influence the NSC 
staff will have on Turkey's security decision, but its new 
role will depend more on analysis and insight than on orders, 
so Alpogan's desire to add MFA personnel to the staff makes 
sense.  Alpogan, previously Turkey's ambassador in Athens, is 
a reliable interlocutor with solid credentials who may prove 
to be an important player in shaping Turkey's foreign policy. 
 Post believes we should take the opportunity now to 
cultivate a close relationship with him and try to influence 
the direction of organizational reforms that Alpogan 
undertakes to the extent possible.  Much will depend on how 
successful he is in adapting the institution to Turkey's 
changing EU circumstances.  We will keep watch as Alpogan 
settles into his new responsibilities and we may seek a call 
from Dr. Rice to offer engagement as he seeks to reshape the 
organization.  End Comment. 
 
7. (U) Baghdad minimize considered. 
EDELMAN