US embassy cable - 04ZAGREB1841

UNCLAS ZAGREB 001841 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/SCE - KABUMOTO 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, HR, Political Parties/Elections 
SUBJECT: HDZ PICKS KOSOR, "DIGNIFIED" CAMPAIGN AHEAD 
 
REF: A. ZAGREB 01601 
     B. ZAGREB 01571 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY AND COMMENT: The ruling Croatian Democratic 
Union (HDZ) announced on 17 October its nomination of 
Jadranka Kosor, Deputy PM and Minister of Family, 
Generational Solidarity and Veterans' Affairs (bio follows) 
as candidate for the presidential elections (ref A) currently 
planned for Tuesday, December 21.  This choice reflects the 
party's desire to select a safe candidate -- i.e. one who can 
lose gracefully to the overwhelmingly popular incumbent 
President Stjepan Mesic and minimize the damage this loss 
inflicts on the HDZ heading into local elections expected in 
May 2005 (ref B). 
 
2. (U) By law, the government must schedule elections on 
non-working days, so discussion of a midweek vote has sparked 
complaints from the business community about lost revenue 
from another shutdown in late December.  Speaker of 
Parliament Vladimir Seks has said the government may avoid 
the workday issue and call the election for Sunday, January 
2, 2005.  PM Sanader is now floating a proposal for a 
constitutional amendment allowing presidential elections on 
the same Sunday every five years, rather than the current 
window between 30 and 60 days prior to the end of the 
incumbent's mandate.  The opposition Social Democratic Party 
(SDP) has expressed opposition to reopening a constitutional 
debate.  END SUMMARY AND COMMENT. 
 
LOW EXPECTATIONS, HIGH RHETORIC 
------------------------------- 
 
3. (SBU) While the HDZ has promised to do all it can to 
ensure Kosor's victory, the party will likely avoid harsh 
criticism of the president, given his reputation as Croatia's 
most popular politician.  The HDZ would prefer to maintain 
its good relations with Mesic and just get the election over 
with (December 21 is the earliest electoral date under the 
Constitution, putting the greatest possible amount of time 
between this and the May local elections); so Kosor's 
campaign will likely remain in her words "dignified" and 
"peaceful." 
 
4. (U) Analysts believe Kosor can count on core HDZ voters 
(about 30% in the last elections), but will lose centrist 
voters to Mesic, who has the support of at least seven 
opposition parties, and more extreme right wing voters to 
Slaven Letica of the Croatian Party of Rights (HSP).  Other 
candidates include the far right Croatian Block's president 
Ivic Pasalic, a close associate of former president Franjo 
Tudjman, and Miroslav "Ciro" Blazevic, whose political 
reputation rests largely on his coaching of the Croatian 
national soccer team to a third place World Cup finish in 
1998.  This opposition may not be sufficient to push the 
election to a second round (held two weeks after the first 
round), as Mesic's current poll numbers are well over the 
required 50 percent. 
 
5. (U) Kosor has already made her first misstep of the 
campaign: when she claimed she already had the support of a 
Croatian network of 40 women's NGOs, NGO leaders publicly 
denied the assertion, reporting they are still waiting to 
hear Kosor's positions on key issues.  She is the second 
woman to run for president in Croatia's history. 
 
BIOGRAPHY: WARTIME RADIO BROADCASTS BUILT PUBLIC FOLLOWING 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
6.  (U) Kosor was born on July 1, 1953, in the Slavonian town 
of Pakrac.  She began her professional career as a journalist 
in 1972, working for the daily newspaper Vecernji List and 
Radio Zagreb (now Croatian Radio).  During the 1991-95 war, 
she hosted radio shows for refugees and other displaced 
persons, earning her name recognition and public popularity. 
In 1995 she became one of the HDZ's vice presidents, was 
elected to parliament, and became deputy speaker.  In 2002, 
she became deputy president of the HDZ, making her officially 
the number two in the party.  She was elected to a third term 
in parliament in 2003 but gave up her seat to take her 
current cabinet position.  In recent years, she has focused 
her political energies on issues related to motherhood and 
war veterans.  Kosor holds a law degree from the Law Faculty 
in Zagreb.  She has one son and lives in Zagreb.  She speaks 
some English and understands German. 
DELAWIE 
 
 
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