US embassy cable - 01HANOI2980

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 HANOI 002980 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/BCLTV 
 
SECDEF FOR ABLAGG 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, ECON, VM, DPOL 
SUBJECT:  THE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT PROCESS: WHAT'S UP? 
 
REF:  A.  HANOI 2885     B.  HANOI 2914 
 
1.  (SBU)  SUMMARY:  PROPOSED AMENDMENTS TO THE 1992 SRV 
CONSTITUTION REPRESENT ATTEMPTS TO ENABLE GREATER 
PARTICIPATION IN ECONOMIC LIFE AND TO ADJUST THE ROLES OF 
VARIOUS PARTS OF GOVERNMENT, WITH POSSIBLE MORE POWER TO THE 
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY (NA).   EXPECTED APPROVAL OF AT LEAST SOME 
AMENDMENTS BY THE NA DURING ITS NOVEMBER/DECEMBER SESSION 
WILL MARK THE NEXT PHASE OF AN ALREADY LENGTHY PROCESS OF 
SEEKING PUBLIC INPUT AND REACTION.  WHILE THE SRV TOUTS THIS 
AS AN EXERCISE IN DEMOCRACY, IT IS ONE FIRMLY TIED TO THE 
IDEA OF "DEMOCRATIC CENTRALISM" IN A ONE PARTY STATE. 
INDEED, THE CPV SEEMS TO BE TRUNCATING THE PROCESS AFTER 
SOME NA MEMBERS AND CITIZENS APPARENTLY BEGAN TO CALL FOR 
MORE COMPREHENSIVE CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGES.  SEPTEL WILL 
PROVIDE AN OVERVIEW OF THE UPCOMING NA SESSION AND 
IMPLICATIONS OF LIKELY OUTCOMES. END SUMMARY. 
 
WHY CHANGE THE CONSTITUTION? 
---------------------------- 
 
2.  (U)  THE OFFICIAL JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDING THE 
CONSTITUTION IS TO "STREAMLINE AND IMPROVE THE EFFICIENCY OF 
THE STATE APPARATUS (NOTE: I.E., ADMINISTRATIVE REFORM, END 
NOTE) AND ADDRESS URGENT ECONOMIC, CULTURAL, EDUCATIONAL, 
SCIENTIFIC, AND TECHNOLOGICAL ISSUES."  THE NINTH NATIONAL 
COMMUNIST PARTY CONGRESS FORMALLY IDENTIFIED THESE ISSUES 
EARLIER THIS YEAR, BUT SEVERAL AMENDMENTS REPORTEDLY HAD 
BEEN UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR A NUMBER OF YEARS.  THE CENTRAL 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        HANOI  02980  01 OF 05  150123Z 
COMMITTEE REAFFIRMED THE CPV'S VIEW OF THE AMENDMENTS IN AN 
ANNOUNCEMENT AT THE CONCLUSION OF ITS FOURTH PLENUM ON 
NOVEMBER 13, STRESSING THAT "ONLY ISSUES CONSIDERED TO BE 
URGENT AND UNANIMOUSLY AGREED UPON WILL BE AMENDED AND 
SUPPLEMENTED." 
 
3.  (SBU)  THE AMENDMENT PROCESS ITSELF (SEE PARAS 19-22 FOR 
DESCRIPTION) REPORTEDLY GENERATED OVER TEN THOUSAND PUBLIC 
COMMENTS.  AMONG THEM WERE CALLS FROM NA MEMBERS AND OTHERS 
FOR COMPREHENSIVE CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE.  SOME COMMENTS, 
ACCORDING TO TRAN NHUNG, AN EDITOR OF THE PEOPLE'S ARMY 
NEWSPAPER WHO SPOKE WITH POLOFF ON OCTOBER 17, WERE SHARPLY 
CRITICAL, EVEN CLAIMING THAT THE PROPOSED AMENDMENTS WERE "A 
STEP BACKWARD FROM THE 1946 CONSTITUTION."  ONE PURPOSE OF 
THE AMENDMENTS AND OF THE AMENDMENT PROCESS ITSELF IS TO 
ALLOW THE SRV TO DEMONSTRATE THAT IT CAN MANAGE "DEMOCRACY" 
IN A ONE PARTY STATE, ACCORDING TO CHRISTINE JOHANSSON, A 
SWEDISH DIPLOMAT WITH WHOM POLOFF SPOKE ON OCTOBER 31.   THE 
AMENDMENT PROCESS, SHE SAID, SERVES AS A WAY TO RE-LINK THE 
PARTY WITH "THE PEOPLE."  JOHANSSON ALSO SUPERVISES A 
SWEDISH ODA PROJECT TO HELP THE NA IMPROVE ITS OWN 
SUPERVISORY FUNCTIONS. 
 
4.  (U)  OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS, MANY OBSERVERS HAD 
PREDICTED THAT THE UPCOMING SESSION OF THE TENTH NA WOULD 
DISCUSS -- BUT NOT RATIFY -- THE AMENDMENTS.  ACCORDING TO 
THEIR ANALYSES, THE NEW NA TO BE ELECTED IN MID-2002 WOULD 
FORMALLY ADOPT THE AMENDMENTS.   HOWEVER, ON NOVEMBER 13, 
NGO ANH DUNG, VICE-CHAIRMAN OF THE NA FOREIGN AFFAIRS 
COMMITTEE, IN A MEETING WITH POL/C AND POLOFF, CLAIMED THAT 
THE NA'S AD HHOC STEERING COMMITTEE ON CONSTITUTIONAL 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 04        HANOI  02980  01 OF 05  150123Z 
AMENDMENTS (CHAIRED BY NGUYEN VAN AN, CONCURRENTLY POLITBURO 
MEMBER, NA CHAIRMAN, AND NA STANDING COMMITTEE CHAIRMAN) HAD 
REACHED CONSENSUS WITH NA DELEGATES ON FOCUSING ONLY ON 
URGENT ISSUES THAT NEEDED UPDATING FROM THE 1992 
CONSTITUTION.  HIS REMARKS REFLECTED THE LANGUAGE SIMILAR 
USED IN THAT DAY'S CENTRAL COMMITTEE ANNOUNCEMENT REGARDING 
ITS VIEWS ON CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS.  DUNG NOTED THAT THE 
AMENDMENT PROCESS COULD CONTINUE NEXT YEAR OR OVER SEVERAL 
YEARS, BUT THAT, LIKE THE MUCH OLDER US CONSTITUTION, TOO 
MANY AMENDMENTS WERE PROBABLY NOT NECESSARY. 
 
PAST CHANGES 
------------ 
 
5.  (SBU)  SOME OBSERVERS HAVE NOTED A PATTERN OF AMENDING 
THE CONSTITUTION ROUGHLY EVERY TEN YEARS.  TRAN NHUNG, OF 
THE PEOPLE'S ARMY NEWSPAPER, AND HISTORIAN HUU NGOC, IN A 
SEPARATE CONVERSATION WITH POLOFF ON OCTOBER 19, EMPHASIZED 
THE HISTORICAL CONTEXT OF EACH CONSTITUTION CHANGE.  BOTH 
SAID THAT THE 1959 CONSTITUTION HAD REFLECTED LESSONS 
LEARNED BY AUTHORITIES MORE USED TO FIGHTING A WAR THAN 
RUNNING A COUNTRY.  THAT LONG AND DETAILED SOVIET-STYLE 
CONSTITUTION WAS BOTH DIFFICULT TO IMPLEMENT AND TO CHANGE, 
ACCORDING TO NGUYEN SI DUNG, DIRECTOR THE NA'S CENTER FOR 
INFORMATION, LIBRARY, AND RESEARCH SERVICES, WHO MET WITH 
POLOFF ON OCTOBER 5.  EACH SUBSEQUENT CONSTITUTION HAS BEEN 
AN EVOLUTION OF THE 1959 DOCUMENT, HE CLAIMED. 
 
6.  (SBU)  HISTORIAN NGOC RECALLED THAT THEN-HOSTILE 
RELATIONS WITH CHINA STIMULATED THE 1980 CONSTITUTION'S ANTI- 
CHINESE PREAMBLE LANGUAGE.  NGOC AND NHUNG IDENTIFIED THE 
EARLY PHASES OF "DOI MOI" WITH THE 1992 CONSTITUTION.  HUU 
NGOC SAID THAT THE 1992 VERSION CAME AT A TIME WHEN VIETNAM 
WAS TRYING TO COME OUT OF A LONG ECONOMIC CRISIS AND 
REPRESENTED VIETNAM'S ATTEMPT TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO CATCH UP 
WITH ITS NEIGHBORS.  WHILE HE SAID THAT THE 1992 AMENDMENTS 
TO THE CONSTITUTION FOCUSED ON THE STATE'S ECONOMIC SYSTEM, 
HE BLAMED NATURAL DISASTERS AND FOREIGN INVASIONS, RATHER 
THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM ITSELF, FOR VIETNAM'S EARLIER 
ECONOMIC WOES. 
 
WHY THESE CHANGES? 
------------------ 
 
7.  (SBU)  NGO BA THANH, A NON-PARTY NA MEMBER ON THE AD HOC 
STANDING COMMITTEE ON CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS WHO SERVED 
AS WELL ON THE 1980 AND 1992 AMENDMENT COMMITTEES AND WHO 
MET WITH POL/C AND POLOFF ON OCTOBER 11, STRESSED THAT NEW 
AMENDMENTS WERE NEEDED TO "IMPROVE THE TRANSPARENCY AND 
EFFICIENCY IN THE STATE APPARATUS" IN ORDER TO BUILD THE 
NATION.  EDITOR TRAN NHUNG HIGHLIGHTED THE NEED NOWADAYS FOR 
MORE AMENDMENTS RELATED TO THE ECONOMY, PARTICULARLY 
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MARKET ECONOMY AND 
INTEGRATION WITH THE GLOBAL ECONOMY.  NHUNG IDENTIFIED AN 
OVERALL THEME OF MOVEMENT AWAY FROM A COMMAND ECONOMY, AND 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        HANOI  02980  02 OF 05  150124Z 
MORE GENERALLY AWAY FROM "THE STATE COMMANDING AND THE 
PEOPLE DOING."  INSTEAD, HE SAID, THE STATE MUST 
INCREASINGLY "ENCOURAGE" THE PEOPLE TO UNDERTAKE MORE 
RESPONSIBILITY AND INITIATIVE.  NHUNG LINKED AMENDMENTS ON 
FORMS OF OWNERSHIP, EDUCATION, AND THE RULE OF LAW TO THIS 
THEME.  THESE ARE NEEDED SO THAT VIETNAM CAN OPERATE 
EFFECTIVELY IN THE GLOBAL MARKET AND CAN ATTRACT MORE 
FOREIGN INVESTORS, HE SAID. 
 
8.  (SBU)  HUU NGOC HIGHLIGHTED THE VALUE OF PROPOSED 
AMENDMENTS IN VIETNAM'S EFFORTS TO BALANCE GLOBALIZATION AND 
ECONOMIC EXPANSION WITH PRESERVATION OF ITS CULTURAL AND 
SOCIAL IDENTITY.  HE CITED AMENDMENTS REGARDING BUILDING A 
MORE EFFECTIVE EDUCATION SYSTEM AS THE MOST IMPORTANT, NOT 
ONLY TO ENABLE PARTICIPATION IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY, BUT ALSO 
TO MAINTAIN VIETNAMESE DISTINCTIVENESS.  HE SAID THAT "DOI 
MOI" HAD ALREADY ENCOURAGED COMPETITION, WHICH HAD BEEN 
ABSENT UNDER SOCIALISM.  BUT THIS HAD LED TO INDIVIDUALISM 
AND MATERIALISM, TRAITS HE CHARACTERIZED AS NEGATIVE AND 
"WESTERN" IN OPPOSITION TO TRADITIONAL COLLECTIVE VALUES. 
THE NA'S DUNG NOTED THAT THE NATION AND IN PARTICULAR ITS 
ECONOMY HAD CHANGED FROM THE EARLY DAYS OF "DOI MOI" 
REFLECTED IN THE 1992 CONSTITUTION, AND ADMITTED THAT 
SUBSEQUENT PROBLEMS OF CORRUPTION AND BUREAUCRATISM SPARKED 
SOME OF THE CURRENT PROPOSED CHANGES. 
 
WHAT IS AT STAKE? 
----------------- 
 
9.  (SBU)  OPINIONS VARY WIDELY OVER WHICH AMENDMENTS ARE 
MOST IMPORTANT AND OVER WHAT THEIR POTENTIAL EFFECTS WOULD 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 04        HANOI  02980  02 OF 05  150124Z 
BE.  WHILE MOST PROPOSED AMENDMENTS RELATE TO THE 
MODIFICATIONS IN THE "STATE APPARATUS," ECONOMIC-RELATED 
AMENDMENTS SEEMED HAVE ATTRACTED MORE INTEREST.  PROPOSED 
RULE OF LAW LANGUAGE ALSO STIMULATED MUCH COMMENT.  WITHIN 
THE "STATE APPARATUS," THE PROVINCIAL PEOPLE'S COUNCILS, THE 
NA, AND THE PRIME MINISTER WOULD ALL APPEAR POTENTIALLY TO 
GAIN MORE POWER FROM PROPOSED AMENDMENTS.  HUU NGOC SAID 
THAT THE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS WERE NOT SOMETHING THAT 
"THE MASSES OF THE PEOPLE, THE FARMERS," WERE INTERESTED IN, 
BUT HAD AT LEAST ATTRACTED THE ATTENTION AND ENGAGEMENT OF 
THE MIDDLE STRATA AND INTELLECTUALS.  MS. JOHANSSON NOTED 
THAT THE DISCUSSION PROCESS HAD GENERATED MUCH PUBLIC 
INTEREST AND REVEALED DIFFERENCES OF OPINION AND APPROACH 
BETWEEN ACADEMICS AND ORDINARY CITIZENS.   PROVINCIAL 
OFFICIALS WITH WHOM POL/C MET ON OCTOBER 25-NOVEMBER 2 
TRAVELS BETWEEN HO CHI MINH CITY AND HANOI UNIFORMLY CLAIMED 
CONSIDERABLE LOCAL INTEREST IN THE AMENDMENT PROCESS, BUT 
WERE UNWILLING OR UNABLE TO CITE EXAMPLES OF SPECIFIC 
AMENDMENTS OF CONCERN FOR THEIR RESIDENTS (REF B). 
 
10.  (SBU)  TRAN NHUNG CITED ECONOMIC ACTORS AS THE BIGGEST 
BENEFICIARIES OF SOME OF THE PROPOSED AMENDMENTS.  REFERRING 
TO PROPOSED CHANGES TO ARTICLES 16 AND 21 AND TO A LESSER 
EXTENT TO ARTICLES 15, 19, AND 24, HE SAID THAT THESE 
AMENDMENTS WOULD MEAN THAT NEW CONSTITUTION WOULD RECOGNIZE 
"ALL" FORMS OF OWNERSHIP AND ALLOW ALL FORMS TO COMPETE ON 
AN EQUAL BASIS.  NGUYEN SI DUNG NOTED THE CHANGE FROM "STATE- 
RUN ECONOMY" TO "STATE (OR NATIONAL) ECONOMY" IN ARTICLE 16 
AS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC AMENDMENT, BECAUSE THIS 
WOULD SIGNAL A REDUCTION OF GOVERNMENT CONTROL OVER THE 
ECONOMY.  NHUNG SAID THAT THESE CHANGES WOULD BE OF GREAT 
BENEFIT TO BUSINESS OWNERS, BUT WOULD PUT MORE PRESSURE ON 
STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES (SOE'S).  HE INDICATED THAT 
ADAPTABLE SOE'S COULD BE MAJOR BENEFICIARIES, WHILE THEIR 
INFLEXIBLE COUNTERPARTS WOULD BE THE BIGGEST LOSERS. 
NONETHELESS, NHUNG SAID THAT THESE AMENDMENTS MOST DIRECTLY 
ANSWERED THE CONCERNS OF COMMON PEOPLE.  NGO BA THANH 
SEPARATELY AGREED, COMMENTING THAT "THE PEOPLE ARE NOT MUCH 
INTERESTED IN THE STATE APPARATUS.  THEY ARE JUST INTERESTED 
IN THEIR RIGHTS TO DO BUSINESS." 
 
11.  (SBU)  OF ALL OF THE PROPOSED AMENDMENTS, "RULE OF LAW" 
CHANGES TO ARTICLES 2 AND 12 PERHAPS GENERATED THE HIGHEST 
LEVEL OF SCHOLARLY DEBATE.  ARTICLE 2'S PROPOSED AMENDMENT 
WOULD SPECIFY THAT VIETNAM IS A "LAW GOVERNED, SOCIALIST" 
STATE.  THE PROPOSED AMENDMENT TO ARTICLE 12 WOULD ELIMINATE 
"THE STATE ADMINISTERS SOCIETY BY MEANS OF LAW, UNCEASINGLY 
STRENGTHENING THE SOCIALIST LEGAL SYSTEM" IN FAVOR OF 
"BUILDING THE LAW GOVERNED SOCIALIST STATE OF VIETNAM IS THE 
RESPONSIBILITY OF EVERY ORGAN, ORGANIZATION AND CITIZEN." 
BUT, ACCORDING TO NGUYEN SI DUNG, ADOPTION OF SUCH NEW RULE 
OF LAW LANGUAGE WOULD BE ONLY A FORMAL DECLARATION, WITHOUT 
PRACTICAL EFFECT. 
 
12.  (SBU)  NGUYEN SI DUNG CLAIMED THAT HO CHI MINH HAD 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        HANOI  02980  03 OF 05  150124Z 
ORIGINALLY EXPRESSED THE IDEAL BEHIND THESE AMENDMENTS IN 
TERMS OF DESCRIBING VIETNAM AS A "STATE OF LAW" IN THE 
VIETNAMESE DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE.  HE ADDED, HOWEVER, 
THAT THERE IS NO CONSENSUS YET THAT VIETNAM IS READY TO PUT 
THE LAW ABOVE THE STATE; IT IS STILL "RULED BY LAW," AN 
IMPORTANT DISTINCTION.  SOME OBSERVERS COMMENTED THAT 
CURRENT WORDING OF ARTICLE 12 MORE ACCURATELY REFLECTS THE 
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE STATE AND THE LAW.  NGO BA THANH, 
OF THE AMENDMENT DRAFTING COMMITTEE, SAID THAT THE MAIN 
PURPOSE OF THESE AMENDMENTS IS TO "RAISE THE SENSE OF LAW 
COMPLIANCE FOR ALL PEOPLE."   SWEDEN'S JOHANSSON NOTED THAT 
THE PROPOSED NEW LANGUAGE MIGHT BOIL DOWN TO ASSERTING 
CENTRAL CONTROL IN A COUNTRY WHERE LOCAL DECREES OFTEN 
CONTRADICT THE CONSTITUTION. 
 
13.  (SBU)  A PROPOSAL TO ELIMINATE THE REFERENCE TO 
"COMPULSORY, FREE EDUCATION" FROM ARTICLE 59 REPORTEDLY DREW 
WIDESPREAD PUBLIC CRITICISM.  (NOTE:  EDUCATION IS ONLY 
COMPULSORY AND FREE THROUGH ELEMENTARY SCHOOL --5TH GRADE -- 
AT PRESENT.  END NOTE)  NGUYEN SI DUNG CLAIMED THAT THIS 
AMENDMENT HAD BEEN INTRODUCED AT THE BEHEST OF THOSE WHO ARE 
WEALTHY ENOUGH TO PAY FOR PRIVATE EDUCATION.  CLAIMING THAT 
IT WAS THE MOST UNPOPULAR NEW AMENDMENT, HE PREDICTED THAT 
IT WOULD NOT PASS.  TRAN NHUNG OF THE PEOPLE'S ARMY 
NEWSPAPER OPINED THAT THIS AMENDMENT WOULD HAVE TWO POSITIVE 
EFFECTS:  1) TO MAKE IT POSSIBLE FOR "SOCIAL GROUPS AND 
INDIVIDUALS TO CONTRIBUTE TO PRIMARY EDUCATION" BY 
ENCOURAGING MORE PRIVATE SCHOOLS (ALREADY LEGAL BUT STILL 
RELATIVELY FEW); AND, 2) TO ALLOW GOVERNMENT EDUCATION 
BUDGETS TO BE TARGETED TO HELP THE NEEDIER RURAL AND UPLAND 
AREAS.  PRESS REPORTS HAVE NOTED THAT MANY CITIZENS OPPOSED 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 04        HANOI  02980  03 OF 05  150124Z 
THIS AMENDMENT, FEARING THAT IT WOULD MEAN THE END OF FREE 
PRIMARY EDUCATION.  NHUNG INSISTED THAT THIS WOULD NOT 
HAPPEN, HOWEVER. 
 
THE STATE APPARATUS 
------------------- 
 
14.  (U)  AMENDMENTS CONCERNING ORGANIZATION OF THE "STATE 
APPARATUS" (ADMINISTRATIVE REFORM) HAVE ATTRACTED RELATIVELY 
LITTLE PUBLIC ATTENTION, BUT A NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO SPOKE TO 
POLOFF IDENTIFIED THESE AS AMONG THE MOST IMPORTANT PROPOSED 
CHANGES.  THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE EMPHASIZED THESE AMENDMENTS 
IN ITS NOVEMBER 13 ANNOUNCEMENT.  THE MOST IMPORTANT ONES, 
ACCORDING TO NGUYEN SI DUNG AND MS. THANH, MANDATE MORE 
"DECENTRALIZATION" OF POWER FROM THE CENTER TO THE 
PROVINCES.  OTHER PROPOSED AMENDMENTS INCLUDE MEASURES 
GIVING MORE POWER TO THE NA AND THE PRIME MINISTER. 
 
15.  (SBU)  ONE EXAMPLE OF "DECENTRALIZATION" WOULD BE 
PROPOSED AMENDMENTS TO INCREASE THE AUTHORITY OF PROVINCIAL 
PEOPLE'S COUNCILS BY GIVING THEM MORE BUDGET APPROPRIATION 
AUTHORITY.  AN AMENDMENT TO ARTICLE 84 WOULD ACCOMPLISH THIS 
BY SUBSTITUTING "CENTRAL" (TRUNG UONG) FOR "STATE" (NHA 
NUOC) IN REFERENCE TO THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY'S BUDGET 
APPROPRIATION DUTIES.  IN THIS CONTEXT, "CENTRAL" MEANS THE 
NATIONAL-LEVEL GOVERNMENT ONLY, WHILE "STATE" REFERS TO 
GOVERNMENT AT ALL LEVELS.  ACCORDING TO NGUYEN SI DUNG, THIS 
WOULD CHANGE THE CURRENT PROVINCIAL FUNDING MECHANISM IN 
WHICH THE PROVINCES RECEIVE EARMARKED FUNDING FROM THE NA 
BASED ON REQUESTS PASSED THROUGH THE FINANCE MINISTRY.  IN 
THE FUTURE, PROVINCES WOULD THEN BE ABLE TO ALLOCATE OR 
REALLOCATE BLOCK APPROPRIATIONS FROM THE NA.  HE ADDED THAT 
CENTRALIZED DECISION-MAKING HAD BEEN GOOD DURING WARTIME, 
BUT MORE "DECENTRALIZATION" WOULD BE BETTER FOR PEACE.  THE 
POINT OF THIS AMENDMENT, ACCORDING TO BOTH MS. THANH AND 
NGUYEN SI DUNG, WOULD BE TO ENCOURAGE PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENTS 
TO TAKE MORE INITIATIVE AND RESPONSIBILITY.  (REF B REPORTED 
ON THE DIFFICULTIES AND AMBIGUITIES OF "DECENTRALIZATION," 
PARTICULARLY THAT PROVINCIAL PEOPLE'S COUNCILS DO NOT 
NECESSARILY HAVE THE CAPACITY TO UNDERTAKE ADDITIONAL 
FINANCIAL RESPONSIBILITY.)  NHUNG ADMITTED THAT NO ONE KNOWS 
EXACTLY HOW THIS AMENDMENT COULD BE IMPLEMENTED, A PROBLEM 
NGUYEN SI DUNG ALSO RAISED. 
 
16.  (SBU)  THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY WOULD POTENTIALLY GAIN 
MORE POWER THROUGH OTHER PROPOSED AMENDMENTS TO ARTICLE 84, 
MARKING A CONTINUATION OF A GRADUAL TREND TOWARDS A LARGER 
FORMAL ROLE FOR THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY.  ONE OF THE PROPOSALS 
WOULD GIVE THE NA THE RIGHT TO INITIATE NO-CONFIDENCE VOTES 
ON OFFICIALS INCLUDING THE STATE PRESIDENT, THE PRIME 
MINISTER, CABINET MINISTERS, THE PRESIDENT OF THE SUPREME 
PEOPLE'S COURT, AND THE CHIEF PROCURATOR OF THE SUPREME 
PEOPLE'S PROCURACY.  NGUYEN SI DUNG CLAIMED THAT THIS IN 
EFFECT WAS ONLY A STEP AWAY FROM A SYSTEM OF CHECKS AND 
BALANCES, SINCE THE NA WOULD HAVE MORE EXPLICIT AUTHORITY 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        HANOI  02980  04 OF 05  150124Z 
OVER THE JUDICIARY BRANCH.  HE WORRIED THAT THESE AMENDMENTS 
WOULD FURTHER UNDERMINE ALREADY WEAK JUDICIAL INDEPENDENCE, 
HOWEVER.  OTHER OBSERVERS HAVE COMMENTED THAT THE AMENDMENTS 
ARE SUPERFLUOUS SINCE THE 1992 CONSTITUTION'S CHAPTER SIX 
(WHICH INCLUDES ARTICLE 84 OF THE CURRENT CONSTITUTION) 
ALREADY GIVES THE NA EXPLICIT AUTHORITY TO "ELECT, RELEASE 
FROM DUTY, REMOVE FROM OFFICE" THESE SENIOR STATE OFFICIALS. 
 
17.  (SBU)  MS. THANH SEPARATELY SAID THAT SHE REGARDED THE 
AMENDMENTS ON THE NA AS A "DEVELOPMENT OF CENTRALIST 
DEMOCRACY, BECAUSE THE NA, REPRESENTING GEOGRAPHICAL 
DISTRICTS AND SOCIAL SECTORS, SHOULD BE ABOVE THE EXECUTIVE 
AND JUDICIARY."  ACCORDING TO NGUYEN SI DUNG, THE INTENT OF 
THESE AMENDMENTS IS TO INCREASE THE ACCOUNTABILITY OF 
GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS.  OTHER AMENDMENTS WOULD GIVE THE NA 
STANDING COMMITTEE MORE POWER TO ACT BETWEEN FULL ASSEMBLY 
SESSIONS, BUT THESE PROPOSALS SEEM TO BE UNPOPULAR WITH MANY 
ASSEMBLY MEMBERS. 
 
18.  (SBU)  SOME PROPOSED AMENDMENTS WOULD ALSO GIVE THE 
PRIME MINISTER MORE POWER, ESPECIALLY OVER LOCAL 
GOVERNMENTS, THROUGH STRENGTHENED ABILITY TO APPOINT, 
DISMISS, AND TRANSFER PROVINCIAL PEOPLE'S COMMITTEE 
CHAIRPERSONS.  THE EXECUTIVES AT LOWER ECHELONS WOULD ALSO 
GET CORRESPONDING AUTHORITY OVER THEIR RESPECTIVE SUB- 
DIVISIONS.  MS. THANH AND NGUYEN SI DUNG EXPLAINED THAT THIS 
WAS SUPPOSED TO MAKE PROVINCIAL EXECUTIVES MORE ACCOUNTABLE 
TO THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT.  NGUYEN SI DUNG COMMENTED THAT 
THIS COULD ALSO MAKE PROVINCIAL PEOPLE'S COMMITTEE CHAIRMEN 
MORE BEHOLDEN TO THE PRIME MINISTER AND LESS RESPONSIVE TO 
LOCAL NEEDS.  HOWEVER, NHUNG SAID THAT THIS AMENDMENT WOULD 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 04        HANOI  02980  04 OF 05  150124Z 
"ENHANCE STATE MANAGEMENT" BY ENCOURAGING LOCAL EXECUTIVES 
TO BE MORE ANSWERABLE TO THE CENTER FOR THEIR ACTIONS.  IT 
WOULD MAKE POSSIBLE, HE SAID, "PUNISHMENT AND CORRECTION" 
FOR MISTAKES BY MOVING AWAY FROM A COLLECTIVE LEADERSHIP 
SYSTEM WHICH OBSCURES RESPONSIBILITY.  OTHER PROPOSED 
AMENDMENTS WOULD REPLACE THE TERM "STATE OFFICIAL" WITH 
"PUBLIC OFFICIAL" THROUGHOUT THE CONSTITUTION.   NHUNG SAID 
THAT THESE CHANGES MAKE IT EASIER FOR THE PRIME MINISTER TO 
EXERCISE AUTHORITY OVER THE GOVERNMENT.  OTHER COMMENTATORS 
HAVE NOTED THAT THE PROPOSED DESIGNATION MAKES CLEAR THAT 
OFFICIALS SERVE "THE PEOPLE" DIRECTLY RATHER THAN WORKING 
ONLY FOR THE STATE. 
 
THE AMENDMENT PROCESS 
--------------------- 
 
19.  (U)  AFTER THE NINTH PARTY CONGRESS CONCLUDED, THE AD 
HOC STEERING COMMITTEE ON CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS CHAIRED 
BY NGUYEN VAN AN DRAFTED THE PROPOSED AMENDMENTS, PUBLICIZED 
THEM, AND INVITED PUBLIC COMMENT FROM AUGUST 16 TO SEPTEMBER 
30.  THE AD HOC COMMITTEE CONDUCTED MEETINGS WITH VARIOUS 
POLITICAL AND SOCIAL ORGANIZATIONS TO DISCUSS THE 
AMENDMENTS.  THE PRESS COVERED NEGATIVE, AS WELL AS 
POSITIVE, REACTIONS BY COMMON CITIZENS.  NA STAFF THEN 
SUMMARIZED THE COMMENTS IN A REPORT THAT THE AD HOC 
COMMITTEE REVIEWED FROM OCTOBER 8 TO 10. 
 
20.  (SBU)  THE PARTY CENTRAL COMMITTEE THEN REVIEWED THE 
AMENDMENTS AND COMMENTS DURING ITS NOVEMBER 5-13 PLENUM.  AS 
NOTED ABOVE, IT THEN CLEARLY INDICATED THAT IT WANTS TO 
LIMIT CONSIDERATION TO THE ISSUES IDENTIFIED AT THE NINTH 
PARTY CONGRESS, LIMITING THE SCOPE FOR DEBATE IN THE NA. 
MS. THANH HAD EARLIER PREDICTED THAT ABOUT HALF OF THE NEXT 
SESSION OF THE TENTH NA WOULD BE SPENT ON CONSTITUTIONAL 
AMENDMENTS, BUT IT IS NO LONGER CERTAIN THIS WILL BE TRUE. 
THIS NA SESSION WILL ALSO TAKE UP THE BTA, CHANGES TO THREE 
LAWS, AND THE BUDGET. 
 
21.  (SBU)  ACCORDING TO TRAN NHUNG, THE PROCESS IS BROADLY 
SIMILAR TO THE PROCESSES THAT LED TO THE 1980 AND 1992 
CONSTITUTIONS, BUT IS MORE OPEN AND INVOLVES GREATER PUBLIC 
PARTICIPATION.  HE NOTED THAT A REPORT ON THE PUBLIC 
COMMENTS WOULD BE PUBLISHED, UNLIKE PREVIOUSLY, AND 
INDICATED THAT IT WOULD PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE REPORT OF THE 
AD HOC COMMITTEE ON CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS TO THE NA 
STANDING COMMITTEE.  HE CLAIMED THAT THE SCOPE FOR PUBLIC 
COMMENT WAS LARGER THAN BEFORE, WITH MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR 
PUBLIC COMMENT. 
 
22.  (SBU)  SWEDEN'S JOHANSSON CHARACTERIZED THE PROCESS AS 
A "CONTROLLED DEBATE."  SHE SAID THAT IT ALLOWED MORE 
INTERNAL CONSULTATION AND FEATURED MORE USE OF THE PRESS AND 
MASS ORGANIZATIONS THAN BEFORE.  THIS REFLECTED MORE 
ATTENTION TO "DEMOCRACY" IN A ONE-PARTY SYSTEM, SHE OPINED. 
SHE ADDED THAT THE ONGOING PROCESS AT LEAST HELPED TO 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        HANOI  02980  05 OF 05  150125Z 
STIMULATE MORE DEBATE ABOUT RIGHTS AND THE RIGHT TO COMPLAIN 
THAN WOULD HAVE OCCURRED EVEN TWO YEARS AGO.  (NOTE:  ONE 
COMPONENT OF THE PROJECT JOHANSSON MANAGES INCLUDES 
FAMILIARIZING THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY WITH THE SWEDISH 
GOVERNMENT'S OMBUDSMAN.  SHE SAID THAT WHILE THE NATIONAL 
ASSEMBLY FOUND THE IDEA INTRIGUING, SHE DID NOT EXPECT THEM 
TO CREATE AN OMBUDSMAN ANY TIME SOON.  END NOTE.)  SHE 
ASSESSED THAT THE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT PROCESS REFLECTED 
THAT PARTY AND NA WORK HAD BECOME MORE OPEN, AT LEAST WITHIN 
THE BOUNDARIES OF "DEMOCRATIC CENTRALISM." 
 
EXPECTED OUTCOMES 
----------------- 
 
23.  (U)  OPINIONS DIFFER OVER HOW MUCH THE AMENDMENTS MAY 
CHANGE FROM THEIR ORIGINAL FORM TO WHATEVER THE NA ADOPTS, 
AS WELL AS HOW MANY AMENDMENTS WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE NA 
APPROVAL PROCESS.  BOTH THE NOVEMBER 13 CENTRAL COMMITTEE 
ANNOUNCEMENT AND NGO ANH DUNG'S COMMENTS SUGGESTED THAT 
THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR NOTHING IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONS TO 
THE PROPOSED AMENDMENTS DURING NA CONSIDERATION, APART FROM 
SOME POSSIBLE DELETIONS OR MINOR CHANGES.  NGO BA THANH HAD 
SAID THAT THERE WOULD BE NO CHANGES BECAUSE "ALL" OF THE 
AMENDMENTS ARE "NECESSARY" FOR VIETNAM'S PROGRESS IN THE 
21ST CENTURY.  NGUYEN SI DUNG PREDICTED THAT SOME OF THE 
MOST UNPOPULAR AMENDMENTS WOULD NOT PASS, ESPECIALLY 
REGARDING EDUCATION.  TRAN NHUNG HAD FORECASTED "HARD 
DISCUSSIONS" DURING THE UPCOMING NA SESSION, GIVEN THE 
EXPECTED UNFAVORABLE REACTIONS FROM SOME NA MEMBERS. 
 
COMMENT 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 04        HANOI  02980  05 OF 05  150125Z 
------- 
 
24.  (SBU)  MUCH OF THIS AMENDMENT EXERCISE SEEMS DESIGNED 
PRIMARILY TO CREATE A SENSE OF PUBLIC EMPOWERMENT AND/OR TO 
VEST "THE PEOPLE" WITH A SENSE OF GREATER PARTICIPATION IN 
THE POLITICAL SYSTEM.  MANY OF THE PROPOSED AMENDMENTS ARE 
AT BEST SYMBOLIC, LIKE THE SUBSTITUTION OF "PUBLIC" FOR 
"STATE" OFFICIAL, BUT AT LEAST REFLECT A WELCOME RECOGNITION 
OF A GROWING CIVIL SOCIETY, INSTEAD OF A PURELY PARTY/STATE- 
LED NATION.  IT IS NOT CLEAR, HOWEVER, THAT THE SRV HAS 
SUCCEEDED IN ENGAGING THE GENUINE ATTENTION OF ITS CITIZENS 
IN THIS PROCESS, HOWEVER, OR THAT THIS PROCESS WOULD HAVE 
ANY EFFECT ON MITIGATING PERCEPTIONS ABOUT ARBITRARY 
OFFICIAL DECISION-MAKING OR WIDESPREAD CONCERNS ABOUT 
CORRUPTION BY PARTY AND STATE OFFICIALS.  AS MUCH AS THE SRV 
ATTEMPTS TO PORTRAY THE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT PROCESS AS 
"DEMOCRATIC," IT WOULD BE A GREAT LEAP TO SAY THAT ITS FORM 
OR CONTENT REFLECT ANY TRULY GRASSROOTS INITIATIVE, 
PARTICULARLY AFTER THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE MADE CLEAR IT 
SUPPORTED A FOCUSED RATHER THAN COMPREHENSIVE DEBATE ON 
CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS. 
PORTER 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED