US embassy cable - 01PRAGUE2892

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRAGUE 002892 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2011 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, AF, EZ 
SUBJECT: CZECH RESPONSE: AFGHANISTAN'S FUTURE - NEXT STEPS 
 
REF: STATE 192153 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: ACTING DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION JOHN J. BORIS 
PER 1.5 (B) AND (D) 
 
1. (C) ON NOVEMBER 13, WE BRIEFED THE NEW DIRECTOR OF THE 
MFA'S ASIA AND PACIFIC DEPARTMENT, IVAN JESTRAB, ON THE 
POINTS IN REFTEL ON AFGHANISTAN'S FUTURE.  JESTRAB, WHO TOOK 
OVER AS DIRECTOR ON NOVEMBER 1 AFTER SERVING FOR SEVERAL 
YEARS AS THE CZECH AMBASSADOR IN NEW DELHI, EXPRESSED HIS 
APPRECIATION FOR THE INFORMATION AND HIS DESIRE TO CONTINUE 
THE CLOSE COOPERATION OF HIS PREDECESSOR WITH THE EMBASSY. 
SPEAKING MORE  GENERALLY, HE REITERATED THE STRONG SUPPORT OF 
THE GOVERNMENT AND PEOPLE OF THE CZECH REPUBLIC FOR THE WAR 
ON TERRORISM AND THE U.S. POLICY TOWARD AFGHANISTAN.  HE 
PROMISED TO SHARE THE INFORMATION WITH OTHER KEY PERSONNEL IN 
THE MFA, INCLUDING IVAN BUSNIAK, THE DIRECTOR OF THE EASTERN 
EUROPE DEPARTMENT, WHO IS RESPONSIBLE FOR CENTRAL ASIA, AND 
JOSEF KOUTSKY, WHO IS THE ACTING DIRECTOR OF THE MIDDLE EAST 
AND NORTH AFRICA DEPARTMENT.  OVERALL COORDINATION OF THE 
MFA'S AFGHANISTAN POLICY, HE SAID, WAS HANDLED BY THE 
DIRECTOR GENERAL FOR POLITICAL AFFAIRS, JAKUB KARFIK, A 
FORMER CZECH DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION IN ISLAMABAD.  THE NEW 
DEPUTY MINISTER FOR BILATERAL RELATIONS,   RUDOLF JINDRAK 
(AND FORMER CZECH AMBASSADOR TO HUNGARY), WHO REPLACED HYNEK 
KMONICEK ON NOVEMBER 1, IS FOCUSED ON HIS AREA OF EXPERTISE, 
NAMELY EUROPE. 
 
2. (C) JESTRAB EXPRESSED PESSIMISM ABOUT THE LIKELIHOOD THAT 
NORTHERN ALLIANCE FORCES WOULD STOP SHORT OF KABUL.  NEWS 
REPORTS ALREADY INDICATED THEY WERE ENTERING THE CAPITAL.  HE 
WELCOMED ANY INFORMATION ON OUR THINKING ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF 
FORMING OF COALITION GOVERNMENT AND THE POSSIBLE 
PARTICIPANTS.  DURING HIS SERVICE IN INDIA, THE DIRECTOR HAD 
COME TO KNOW THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE'S AMBASSADOR TO INDIA AND 
HIS WIFE AS PERSONAL FRIENDS AND FINE HUMAN BEINGS.  JESTRAB 
WAS RELIEVED TO LEARN HIS FRIEND SURVIVED THE ASSASSINATION 
OF MASOOD.  STILL, HE WAS SKEPTICAL WHETHER THE ALLIANCE, 
WITH ITS LIMITED ETHNIC MAKEUP, COULD ENSURE THE CREATION OF 
A BROAD-BASED GOVERNMENT.  THE RISK OF THE CARVING UP OF 
AFGHANISTAN INTO WARRING FIEFDOMS LOOMED LARGE.  A PROLONGED 
GUERRILLA WAR COULD ALSO DE-STABILIZE PAKISTAN.  IF A COUP 
CAME, IT WOULD LIKELY BE LEAD BY "MEN IN BEARDS AND TURBANS" 
(I.E., ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALISTS) ALLIED TO THE TALIBAN. 
 
3. (C) WHEN ASKED ABOUT AFGHANS IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC, 
JESTRAB NOTED HE HAD BEEN IN OFFICE A VERY SHORT TIME AND HAD 
NOT YET HAD A CHANCE TO MEET ALL THE INTERESTED PLAYERS.  HE 
STATED, HOWEVER, THAT HE WAS NOT AWARE OF ANY COUNTRYWIDE 
ORGANIZATION OF AFGHANS.  MOST OF THE AFGHANS WHO WERE IN THE 
COUNTRY HAD APPLIED FOR POLITICAL ASYLUM AND WERE HOPING TO 
STAY IN EUROPE; THEY DID NOT, HE SAID, WANT TO ATTRACT 
ATTENTION.  THE LOCAL AFGHANI EMBASSY WAS STAFFED BY A SINGLE 
DIPLOMAT WHOSE ABILITY TO INFLUENCE EVENTS OR POLICY WAS 
MINIMAL.  WE AGREED TO REMAIN IN CLOSE CONTACT. 
 
 
STAPLETON