US embassy cable - 04HOCHIMINHCITY1321

UNCLAS HO CHI MINH CITY 001321 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
NOFORN 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/BCLTV 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, SOCI, VM, DPOL 
SUBJECT: (SBU)  PESONNEL CHANGES IN VIETNAM'S COMMUNIST PARTY 
 
1. (SBU/NF) Summary: Personnel shifts within the Communist Party 
in Southern Vietnam indicate that jockeying for position ahead of 
the party's 10th Congress in 2006 is underway.  A contact close to 
the Party told us that the Party's Central Committee had begun to 
consider who might succeed Prime Minister Phan Van Khai.  One top 
candidate, HCMC Party Secretary and Politburo member Nguyen Minh 
Triet was diagnosed recently with cancer, casting a cloud over his 
prospects.  Meanwhile, Triet had one of his protoges named as 
deputy of the HCMC branch of the Party.  End Summary. 
 
CPV personnel shifts begin 
-------------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) On October 9, HCMC media reported that the Politburo had 
decided to reassign and promote Mr. Le Hoang Quan, Communist Party 
Secretary of Dong Nai Province, to Deputy Secretary of the Party 
 
SIPDIS 
in HCMC.  Quan, a member of the Party's Central Committee, will 
replace Vo Van Cuong, who was responsible for anti-corruption 
efforts, internal party personnel and discipline for the Party in 
HCMC.  He will report directly to Politburo member and HCMC Party 
Secretary Nguyen Minh Triet. 
 
SIPDIS 
 
3. (SBU/NF) Two ConGen contacts, a prominent member of the local 
Chinese community and a Viet Kieu businessman, both with long-term 
contacts with the Party, told us that Quan is a protg of Triet's 
--both hail from Binh Duong province in southern Vietnam.  The 
contacts added that Quan is one of the individuals responsible for 
making Dong Nai province one of the more investor-friendly and 
d 
economically dynamic provinces in the region. 
 
4. (SBU/NF) Our sources said that Triet is grooming Quan to become 
his replacement.  If all goes according to plan, current HCMC 
People's Committee Chairman Le Thanh Hai -- another serious 
contender for the top slot in the HCMC Party structure -- would be 
transferred to Can Tho next year to be Party Secretary, clearing 
the field for Quan when the HCMC Party unit holds its 
organizational Congress next year. 
 
5. (SBU/NF) However, our contacts speculated that Quan might have 
to replace Triet as HCMC Party leader sooner rather than later. 
They told us that, in September, Triet was diagnosed with prostate 
cancer.  A specialist at HCMC's Franco-Viet hospital separately 
confirmed Triet's illness and said that Triet would have to travel 
to Singapore for treatment, as Vietnamese hospitals did not have 
the capability to treat the disease effectively. 
 
Triet as Prime Minister? 
------------------------ 
 
6.  (SBU/NF) Triet's illness may have national political 
implications.  The HCMC Party leader has been widely mentioned as 
a leading contender for Prime Minister when incumbent Phan Van 
Khai's term ends in 2007.  One of our sources told us that in an 
internal straw poll of the Party's Central Committee in June 2004, 
Triet was selected as first option to replace Van Khai, with 
fellow southerners and politburo members Truong Tan Sang and 
Nguyen Tan Dung ranked second and third respectively.  Triet's 
cancer diagnosis may call into question his ability to serve as 
PM.   (Traditionally, the post of Prime Minister has gone to a 
southerner, President to a party member from central Vietnam and 
General Secretary of the Party to a northerner.) 
 
7. (SBU/NF) According to our business contact, Triet has indicated 
that he would prefer to see Dung as PM rather than Sang.  Sang, 
now head of the Central Economics Commission, was Party Secretary 
of HCMC when Triet was promoted to become his deputy.  The two 
reportedly had a falling out in the year they served together 
before Sang was transferred to Hanoi.  Dung, meanwhile, is another 
high profile southerner and a protege of former PM Vo Van Kiet. 
Dung is charged by the Politburo to oversee efforts to manage 
development and ethnic minority issues in the Central Highlands. 
He also is head of the Mekong Delta Development Commission and has 
a strong power-base in the Can Tho region. 
 
8. (SBU/NF) Comment:  The Party is extremely opaque, particularly 
on personnel issues.  Nonetheless, the promotion of Quan and the 
other information our contacts are reporting highlight that Party 
members already have become deeply enmeshed in internal 
maneuvering in the run-up to the 2006 Party Congress. 
 
WINNICK