US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3298

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003298 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, TW 
SUBJECT: LY ELECTION CAMPAIGN KICKS OFF 
 
REF: TAIPEI 3234 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: Candidate registration for the December 11 
Legislative Yuan (LY) election campaign closed October 12 and 
the campaign season has begun.  Neither camp is expecting any 
dramatic swings in the current LY balance, but most observers 
expect the Pan-Blue to lose its current slim majority.  The 
Pan-Green's prospects for securing a slim majority may hinge 
on whether Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) can enforce 
discipline among its voters and the ability of the Taiwan 
Solidarity Union (TSU) to advance beyond the 16 seats it is 
currently projected to win.  Both the KMT and Pan-Green 
parties are looking to capitalize on the declining fortunes 
of James Soong's People First Party (PFP).  However, the real 
beneficiaries from the PFP's slide may be political 
independents, who may well hold the balance after December 
11.  In addition to determining the make-up of the next LY, 
this election is seen by many as an informal primary for both 
Green and Blue candidates for the 2008 presidential election. 
 End Summary. 
 
Who Wants to be a Legislator? 
----------------------------- 
 
2. (C) Registration for the December 11 LY election closed on 
October 12, marking the informal start of the campaign 
season.  A total of 387 candidates registered to contest 176 
geographic and aboriginal district seats.  Geographic 
districts range in size from one to 13 seats, with each voter 
allowed to cast a single ballot for a candidate, rather than 
a party (Note: We will review septel the arcane procedural 
and political realities of Taiwan's legislative elections. 
End Note).  A further 49 seats will be divided among 
proportional party and overseas lists.  The DPP is running a 
total of 92 candidates for district seats, the KMT 74, People 
First Party (PFP) 41, and TSU 30.  The remaining 150 plus 
candidates represent minor parties or are running as 
independents.  Among district seats in the 2001 election, the 
DPP won 69 (87 overall, including proportional candidates), 
KMT 53 (68 overall), PFP 35 (46 overall), and the TSU 8 (13 
overall). 
 
Both Camps Aim for Slim Majority 
-------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) Both camps have set a small majority as their stated 
goal, but observers say that it is possible that neither camp 
will surpass the 113 seat target.  National Security Council 
(NSC) Secretary General Chiou I-jen, architect of President 
Chen Shui-bian's March 20 victory, told AIT that he is 
absolutely confident that the Pan-Blue will lose its current 
one-seat majority, but could not guarantee the Pan-Green will 
surpass the 113 mark.  DPP Survey Center Director Pan I-shuan 
said that the party's most recent poll estimates the 
Pan-Green will win 109 seats total (93 DPP, 16 TSU) versus 
105 for the Pan-Blue (69 KMT, 32 PFP, and 4 New Party).  Pan 
noted that this number will serve as the DPP's baseline 
figure, since it reflects the situation before the campaign 
started. 
 
DPP Challenge: Enforcing Discipline 
----------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) Given Taiwan's multi-member districting system, both 
camps are focusing attention on candidate coordination. 
Veteran DPP Legislator Hong Chi-chang told AIT that the 
Pan-Green's chances for a majority hinges on its ability to 
persuade Pan-Green voters to spread their support evenly 
among DPP candidates, a system referred to as "peipiao." 
Hong noted that the DPP is running a large number of 
first-time candidates who lack name recognition.  "Without a 
peipiao system in place," Hong commented, "many of these 
candidates will lose."  DPP Deputy Secretary General Lee 
Ying-yuan commented that discussions for candidate 
coordination were just getting under way, but so far 
candidates have been eager to participate, hoping to convert 
the DPP edge in opinion polls into the seats needed for an LY 
majority. 
 
TSU: Modest Expectations 
 
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------------------------ 
 
5. (C) Early expectations for major gains by the TSU appear 
to have fizzled, with observers inside and outside of the 
party predicting only modest gains over 2001.  TSU Policy 
Chief Lee Shangren told AIT that the party has revised its 
internal goal to 20 seats, but admitted that even this figure 
would be hard to achieve.  DPP Taipei County Magistrate Lin 
Hsi-yao asserted that the TSU could break its current malaise 
if it were to exploit popular sentiment against the 
government's support of direct transportation links with the 
PRC.  "During the presidential campaign, we were disturbed by 
the depth of anti-Three Links sentiment among many voters 
outside of major urban centers," Lin said. 
 
6. (C) However, the TSU's Lee said his party would pass up 
the opportunity to attack the Three Links and continue to 
focus on politics rather than trade.  "We are under intense 
pressure from our business supporters not to campaign against 
the Three Links," Lee explained, "so it comes down to a 
choice between the common people and the business community 
-- we'd rather have the money than the votes."  While the 
TSU's decision to hold off on attacking the Three Links has 
 
SIPDIS 
relieved some pressure on the DPP, party officials express 
concern that recent attacks by former President Lee Teng-hui 
on the government's post-May 20 cross-Strait policy line may 
provoke President Chen Shui-bian to revert to the sort of 
China-baiting that featured prominently in the presidential 
election campaign. 
 
Pan-Blue Challenge: Keeping PFP Votes in the Family 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
7. (C) The Pan-Blue camp will have an even tougher time of 
coordinating campaign strategy due to ongoing tensions 
between the KMT and PFP and the presence of a large number of 
renegade Pan-Blue candidates.  PFP Legislator (Taichung City) 
Daniel Hwang (Yi-jiao) told AIT that "we will talk big about 
peipiao, but we couldn't do this even among PFP candidates, 
let alone together with the KMT."  KMT Legislator (Taipei 
City South) Apollo Chen (Shei-sheng) offered a similar 
assessment.  "For the Pan-Blue, it will be everyone for 
themselves," Chen concluded.  KMT Policy Chief Tseng 
Yung-chuan told AIT that the KMT does not necessarily need a 
peipiao system because its candidates will be boosted by 
flagging public support for the PFP.  "Sure, the PFP will 
lose seats this time," Tseng assessed, "but that just means 
more votes for KMT candidates." 
 
Independents May Hold Balance 
----------------------------- 
 
8. (C) However, many observers caution that PFP voters may 
not automatically shift their support to the KMT.  Institute 
for National Policy Research Executive Director (INPR) Lo 
Chih-cheng told AIT that one factor to watch for is whether 
educated Pan-Blue voters, disenchanted with the PFP over its 
post-March 20 behavior but unwilling to vote for an 
unreformed KMT, might look to independent candidates as an 
outlet for their protest votes.  Samuel Wu, a political 
advisor to KMT Taipei City Mayor Ma Ying-jeou, told AIT that 
the Pan-Blue should worry more about independents than the 
Pan-Green.  "Our supporters are different from the DPP's," he 
asserted, "DPP voters will never cast ballots for someone 
without official nomination, but Pan-Blue voters are just as 
likely to vote for a non-partisan as for a candidate with 
party backing."  This factor may be especially important in 
Taipei City, where there are almost as many independent 
Pan-Blue candidates as there are registered ones.  Among the 
candidates considered as potential threats to the Pan-Blue 
camp are two former DPP Chairmen -- Shih Ming-te and Hsu 
Hsin-liang -- both of whom are polling strongly among 
Pan-Blue (but not DPP) voters. 
 
9. (C) Officials in both camps suggest that the Non-Partisan 
Solidarity Union (NSU), a loose grouping of political 
independents (most of whom were expelled by major parties on 
ethical or loyalty grounds), may play a key role in 
determining the election's outcome.  This election marks the 
first time the NSU has registered as a political party, 
making it eligible to receive proportional seats if it gains 
more than 5 percent of the island-wide vote.  The DPP's Hong 
asserted that such an outcome would impact negatively on both 
the DPP and KMT, making it more likely that independents will 
hold the balance of power in the next LY.  How this would 
influence the DPP's ability to govern is subject to debate. 
Taipei County Magistrate Lin asserted that as long as the 
Pan-Green is within five seats of a majority, it will be able 
to easily entice non-partisan candidates into its coalition. 
The KMT's Tseng, however, asserted that the NSU is 
ideologically closer to the Pan-Blue, thus will back the KMT 
on major policy issues.  The DPP's Hong assessed that the 
wider the margin between the Pan-Green and an outright 
majority, the higher the price non-partisans will be able to 
demand from the government in terms of political pork. 
 
The 2004 Primary for the 2008 Election? 
--------------------------------------- 
 
10. (C) Officials in both camps say this election may also 
serve as an early primary for the 2008 presidential contest. 
President Chen has intentionally given the four competitors 
for future DPP leadership their own independent campaign 
staffs for the LY election (Reftel).  Similarly, the three 
contenders for future KMT leadership -- LY President Wang 
Jin-pyng, Taipei Mayor Ma, and PFP Chairman Soong -- are 
using the campaign to build support for their own 
candidacies.  Ma advisor Wu told AIT that the Taipei Mayor 
will only campaign for those Pan-Blue candidates (including 
independents) whom he believes will help him rebuild a new, 
more moderate KMT.  Wang has been less discriminatory, likely 
because his prospects for future leadership depend heavily on 
support from within the LY.  Soong is also stumping for 
candidates from across the Pan-Blue spectrum.  However, even 
members of his own party are discounting his potential for 
future political office (Septel).  In one very public 
example, PFP legislator (Taipei North) Chin Huei-chu loudly 
denounced Taipei Mayor Ma October 10 for refusing to help her 
re-election campaign and threatened to retaliate by 
supporting LY Speaker Wang (not Soong) for KMT Chairman after 
the election. 
 
Comment: No Major Sea-Change 
---------------------------- 
 
11. (C) The upcoming election is unlikely to see a major 
shift in seats between the two camps because Taiwan's 
multi-member districting system encourages competition within 
partisan camps rather than between them.  Nevertheless, a 
modest Pan-Green majority, with or without the help of 
independents, seems to be the likeliest outcome given the 
DPP's advantage in resources, organization, and morale. 
Perhaps more significant than the final outcome will be how 
votes divide within the Pan-Blue camp.  PFP poll numbers 
continue to slide and there is growing fear within the party 
of a looming collapse.  While the PFP is unlikely to 
disappear the way the New Party did in 2001, a large setback 
could have major implications for future political 
realignment within the Blue camp.  A greatly weakened PFP 
will not be in a position to place unpalatable ideological or 
personnel conditions for of a post-election Pan-Blue merger. 
This may help create a "soft-landing" for the Pan-Blue, 
allowing for the emergence of a more stable and moderate KMT 
leadership capable of playing an effective, and responsible, 
balancing role in opposition. 
PAAL