US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3294

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003294 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/21/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, TW 
SUBJECT: LY ELECTION PREVIEW: SOUTH CENTRAL TAIWAN 
 
REF: TAIPEI 03231 
 
Classified By: AIT Deputy Director David J. Keegan, Reason: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: Yunlin is shaping up to be a battleground 
county in the December legislative elections.  With eighteen 
candidates vying for six seats, both Pan-Blue and Pan-Green 
have nominated aggressively in the hopes of gaining 
territory.  Furthermore, KMT County Magistrate Chang 
Jung-Wei's disappearance after being implicated in a bribery 
scandal promises to become a key issue in the election.  It 
is still too early to predict, but the Pan-Green camp seems 
more likely to gain an extra seat.  Nantou County, by 
contrast, is more predictable.  Although there are eleven 
candidates running for four seats, the Pan-Blue has gone on 
the defensive, with the KMT and People First Party (PFP) 
nominating just one candidate each.  The KMT incumbent is a 
shoe-in and the PFP candidate should have a better than even 
chance.  The main question in Nantou seems to be whether the 
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) will take both remaining 
seats or split them with the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU). 
End Summary. 
 
Yunlin County: A Battleground 
----------------------------- 
 
2. (C) Yunlin County (pop. 738,158) has six Legislative Yuan 
(LY) seats up for election in December.  A total of eighteen 
candidates registered by the October 12 deadline, but only 
eight or nine are "serious contenders," according to Yunlin 
County Government Information Bureau Director Hung Po-Lin. 
In the last election three seats went to Pan-Blue candidates, 
two to Pan-Green, and one to an independent who later joined 
the DPP.  Both sides have nominated four candidates, hoping 
to gain territory in the LY, but a large number of maverick 
and independent candidates may complicate the election. 
 
DPP: A Team of Three 
-------------------- 
 
3. (C) The DPP has nominated three candidates.  Lin Kuo-Hua, 
an incumbent, has a strong base of support and is widely 
considered a safe bet for reelection.  The other two 
candidates, former National Assembly member Lin Shu-Shan and 
Yunlin County Council member Chen Hsien-Chung do not enjoy 
the same level of name recognition.  Chen is considered by 
many observers to be a particularly weak candidate.  (Note: 
The DPP's other incumbent, Su Chih-Fen decided not to run for 
reelection, reportedly because she intends to run for County 
Magistrate next year.  End note.)  The DPP's strategy 
therefore is to have the three campaign as a team, explained 
DPP Yunlin County Chairman Wang Kao-Hsing, so that Lin 
Kuo-Hua can lend his support to the others.  Campaign posters 
display the three candidates standing together with Lin 
Kuo-Hua prominently featured in the middle.  Furthermore, the 
DPP plans to conduct periodic internal polls to determine 
which candidates the campaign should focus on.  If necessary, 
they will implement a "peipiao" strategy in the final days of 
the campaign, in which the DPP vote will be split among the 
candidates by directing voters, based on their birthday or 
the last digit of their national ID number, to vote for 
particular candidates. 
 
TSU: The Activist Councilwoman 
 
SIPDIS 
------------------------------ 
 
4. (C) The TSU has nominated one candidate, Yunlin County 
Council member Yin Ling-Ying.  She enjoys a reputation as an 
environmental activist, having successfully stopped a 1999 
land development project that would have destroyed the 
habitat of an endangered bird species.  Most recently, she 
exposed a major bribery scandal involving the County 
Magistrate, Chang Jung-Wei (Reftel).  Yin is enjoying a boost 
in popularity because of the attention she has received in 
the Chang scandal.  However, local attorney Lee Chien-Chung, 
who is also the brother of one of Yin's TSU colleagues on the 
County Council, said he worries that her support is too 
dependent on the scandal.  Should the scandal fade from 
memory, her voters might instead support one of the 
better-known independent candidates, such as Kao Chin-Lang of 
the Taiwan Independence Party (TAIP).   Yunlin County 
Information Bureau Director Hung Po-Lin, a Chang appointee, 
was even more skeptical of her chances, saying that her 
support is "in the air."  He further suggested that her 
activism has gone too far, and that by accusing reporters of 
accepting bribes to underreport government corruption, she 
has alienated her most important ally: the press.  DPP Deputy 
SecGen Lee Ying-yuan, a Yunlin native, offered a completely 
different assessment.  Yin, he said, "is a shoe-in." 
 
KMT: Three Candidates, Four Mavericks 
------------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) The KMT has nominated three candidates: Hsu Shu-Po, an 
incumbent; Hou Hui-Hsien, who previously served as a 
legislator from 1999-2001, but lost her reelection campaign 
in 2001; and Chang Shuo-wen, secretary to fugitive Magistrate 
Chang Jung-Wei.  The biggest threat to their chances comes 
from several other candidates who have decided to run 
independently after failing to secure KMT nominations.  Among 
these is an incumbent, Tseng Tsai Mei-Tso, who received the 
most KMT votes in the last election.  KMT Yunlin County 
Chairman Cheng Ching-Chen claimed she wasn't nominated 
because she lost a primary election within the party. 
However, local attorney Lee said she might have been dropped 
because her brother is a well-known gangster and the KMT 
fears another scandal.  Another former KMT lawmaker with 
gangster ties, Lin Ming-Yi, is running under the Nonpartisan 
Solidarity Union (NSU) banner.  The fugitive Magistrate's 
sister, Chang Li-Shan, is also running, and many predict she 
could collect the sympathy vote from those who believe her 
brother's plight is the result of a DPP vendetta.  Former KMT 
legislator Liao Fu-Pen, also known as "Red Envelope" 
(Hong-Bao) Pen because of his flagrant vote-buying, is also 
running.  KMT Chairman Cheng was dismissive of these 
mavericks, saying that without access to the KMT's extensive 
network of local campaign offices they don't stand a chance 
against his nominees.  Local attorney Lee offered a similar 
assessment, noting that the well-oiled KMT election machinery 
should be able to generate enough votes to support its three 
candidates. 
 
PFP: An Uphill Battle 
--------------------- 
 
6. (C) The PFP has renominated its incumbent, Chen 
Chien-Song.  PFP County Director Wu Chih-Chou admitted that 
Chen faces an uphill battle.  Their campaign has little money 
and almost no support from the central party.  Chen, a former 
engineer with his base of support in his hometown of Shuilin, 
plans to run on his record of service.  When asked what 
Chen's strategy for the campaign would be, Wu offered the 
example that "Chen attends many funerals in his district to 
grieve with his constituents."  Wu lamented, however, that 
the PFP was being marginalized because many locals assume it 
is just a party for ethnic Mainlanders. 
 
All Quiet on the Nantou Front 
----------------------------- 
 
7. (C) Nantou County (pop. 539,721), a land-locked 
mountainous district located in Taiwan's geographic center, 
is represented in the LY with four seats. Eleven candidates 
registered for this year's election.  However, in contrast to 
neighboring Yunlin County, Nantou's election looks to be 
rather predictable.  In the last election the DPP took two 
seats and the KMT and PFP each took one.  With three of the 
four incumbents running for reelection this time, no major 
changes are expected. 
 
Pan-Blue: On the Defensive 
-------------------------- 
 
8. (C) The Pan-Blue in Nantou has taken a defensive posture, 
nominating only their two incumbents, former Kaohsiung Mayor 
and nationally recognized politician Wu Dun-Yi (KMT) and Chen 
Chih-pin (PFP).  The decision not to attempt to gain 
territory in Nantou was the result of an agreement between 
the KMT and PFP, according to KMT Nantou County Section Chief 
Tseng Ching-chen.  Had the KMT nominated two candidates, 
 
SIPDIS 
explained Tseng, the second candidate would not stand a good 
chance of winning because of Wu's extreme popularity, and 
might squeeze out the PFP candidate by siphoning off some of 
his votes.  Now the KMT can instead encourage some of its 
voters to support the PFP's Chen if polls indicate he is in 
danger of losing to a Green candidate, Tseng added.  Lin 
Po-wen, who would have been the KMT's second candidate, was 
predictably upset.  He camped in front of KMT headquarters 
protesting this decision until the October 12 deadline, at 
which point he registered as an independent.  Tseng was 
dismissive of Lin's chances, explaining that in the internal 
party primary, Lin only received 4% of the votes, while Wu 
got 91%. 
 
Pan-Green: Hoping for a PFP Split 
--------------------------------- 
 
9. (C) The DPP nominated one of their incumbents, Tang 
Huo-Sheng and a newcomer, Lin Yun-Sheng (the current 
Magistrate's son).  The other DPP incumbent, Tsai Huang-lan, 
decided not to run for reelection because he is planning to 
run for Magistrate next year.  The TSU has once again 
nominated Chen Tse-Chi, who lost in the previous election. 
With the three incumbents' seats widely considered 
unassailable, the only question seems to be whether the last 
seat will go to the DPP's Lin or the TSU's Chen.  DPP County 
Chairwoman Lai Yen-Hsueh was more optimistic than outside 
observers about the Pan-Green's chances in Nantou, saying 
that former PFP Legislator and James Soong spokesperson Chen 
Chen-Sheng, who is running on the Nonpartisan Solidarity 
Union (NSU) nomination, might steal enough votes from the 
PFP's Chen Chih-Pin to make it possible for all three Green 
candidates to win. 
 
Comment: Issues Take a Back Seat to Tactics, Personalities 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
10. (C) Predictions at this point are difficult to make. As 
PFP Yunlin Director Wu explained, early polls are unreliable 
because vote-buying becomes rampant in the last few weeks of 
the campaign.  Although this region is notorious for having 
the most flagrant vote-buying in Taiwan, it is unclear how 
much of a factor this will be in December.  However some 
things do seem clear.  Because of the Pan-Blue's defensive 
nomination strategy in Nantou, it is very unlikely that the 
current 2:2 split will change.  The situation in Yunlin is 
far more complex due to the Magistrate's disappearance in a 
bribery scandal, the aggressive nominations on both sides, 
and the number of independents taking part in the election. 
However, most observers agree that because the Pan-Blue has 
so many serious mavericks challenging its nominees, it will 
face a great disadvantage.  Provided the more disciplined 
Pan-Green makes no big mistakes, they should have little 
problem maintaining the 3:3 split, and could very likely gain 
a seat in Yunlin, bringing them closer to their goal of a 
majority in the LY this December. 
 
11. (C) As the very different election situations in these 
two counties illustrate, issues may play at best a secondary 
role in this December's LY election.  Factors like the number 
of nominees and the presence of mavericks on either side 
largely determine the nature of the contest.  Rather than 
national policy issues, factors like connections, 
personalities, media attention, money and tactical decisions 
like "peipiao" vote-distribution will likely decide the 
outcome.  DPP Yunlin County Chairman Wang's answer to AIT's 
questions about campaign issues was atypical only in its 
succinctness: "Issues?!" he growled, "The issue is we have 
three candidates!" 
PAAL