US embassy cable - 01HARARE3398

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 003398 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: NEW ZIMBABWE SURVEY PORTENDS CLOSE PRESIDENTIAL 
ELECTION 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER TODD FAULK FOR REASONS: 
1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (U) IN ITS NOVEMBER 8-14 EDITION, THE INDEPENDENT 
"FINANCIAL GAZETTE" IN A SPECIAL INSERT PUBLISHED THE 
RESULTS OF A NATIONWIDE OPINION SURVEY IT COMMISSIONED 
TO DETERMINE SUPPORT FOR ZIMBABWE'S LEADING PRESIDENTIAL 
CANDIDATES.  THE RAW UNWEIGHTED DATA SHOW THAT 33.5 
PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS PLAN TO VOTE FOR PRESIDENT 
MUGABE, 30 PERCENT INTEND TO VOTE FOR MDC PRESIDENT 
MORGAN TSVANGIRAI, WHILE, SIGNIFICANTLY, 31.3 PERCENT 
ARE STILL UNDECIDED; 5.2 PERCENT DO NOT PLAN TO VOTE. 
THE UNWEIGHTED DATA ARE BIASED IN FAVOR OF MUGABE 
BECAUSE A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE REFUSED TO 
PARTICIPATE IN THE SURVEY OUT OF FEAR OF RULING PARTY 
REPRISALS, ACCORDING TO THE "GAZETTE" ARTICLES.  WHEN 
THE DATA IS WEIGHTED TO REMOVE THOSE RESPONDENTS WHO ARE 
UNDECIDED AND WHO DO NOT INTEND TO VOTE, THEY SHOW THAT 
52.9 PERCENT OF THE ELECTORATE WOULD VOTE FOR TSVANGIRAI 
AND 47.1 PERCENT WOULD VOTE FOR MUGABE. 
 
"SMALL VICTORY" FOR MDC 
----------------------- 
 
2.  (U) THE "GAZETTE" POLL SHOWS THAT AFTER WEIGHING THE 
RESULTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MDC SUPPORTERS WHO REFUSED TO 
PARTICIPATE, THE MDC'S SUPPORT HAS GROWN IN ALL 
PROVINCES SINCE THE 2000 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION, EXCEPT 
IN BULAWAYO, WHERE ZANU-PF PICKED UP SOME SUPPORT.  FOR 
EXAMPLE, IN THE ZANU-PF STRONGHOLD OF MASHONALAND 
CENTRAL, 28.8 PERCENT OF THE ELECTORATE PLANS TO VOTE 
FOR TSVANGIRAI, UP FROM THE 20 PERCENT OF THE VOTES THE 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  03398  01 OF 02  141508Z 
MDC RECEIVED IN 2000, ACCORDING TO THE SURVEY. 
IMPORTANTLY, HOWEVER, SUPPORT FOR MUGABE REMAINS ABOVE 
50 PERCENT IN ALL THREE MASHONALAND PROVINCES.  IN THE 
KEY BATTLEGROUND PROVINCE OF MASVINGO, MUGABE RETAINS 
THE UPPERHAND WITH 56.6 PERCENT OF VOTERS BACKING HIM 
COMPARED TO 43.4 PERCENT FOR TSVANGIRAI.  SUPPORT FOR 
THE MDC HAS GROWN SLIGHTLY IN HARARE AND THE 
MATABELELAND PROVINCES.  IN BULAWAYO, THE "GAZETTE" 
EXPLAINED THAT ZANU-PF'S INCREASE WAS DUE TO THE 
EXCLUSION OF INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES FROM THE SURVEY. 
BULAWAYO HAD A LARGE NUMBER OF INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES IN 
2000, AND MOST OF THEIR SUPPORTERS DECIDED TO THROW 
THEIR WEIGHT BEHIND ZANU-PF RATHER THAN THE MDC. 
 
3.  (C) ON NOVEMBER 8, POLOFF SPOKE TO PROFESSOR 
MASIPULA SITHOLE, A UNIVERSITY OF ZIMBABWE LECTURER, 
COLUMNIST, AND DIRECTOR OF THE INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC 
OPINION.  SITHOLE CHARACTERIZED THE "GAZETTE" SURVEY AS 
"A SMALL VICTORY FOR THE MDC."  THE RESULTS OF THE 2000 
REFERENDUM AND PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS WERE NARROW -- 
AND THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WILL BE AS WELL -- SO 
ANY GAIN IN SUPPORT IS IMPORTANT FOR THE MDC'S CHANCES, 
SITHOLE OPINED.  HE STATED THAT THE FIVE BY-ELECTIONS OF 
THE LAST YEAR BROKE NO NEW GROUND FOR EITHER PARTY.  A 
CRITICAL FACTOR IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WILL BE 
VOTER TURNOUT.  IT HAS TRADITIONALLY BEEN LOW (45-50 
PERCENT) IN PRESIDENTIAL POLLS, BUT IS LIKELY TO BE MUCH 
HIGHER THIS TIME AROUND, A FACTOR THAT FAVORS THE MDC, 
HE STATED.  HIS INSTITUTE IS CURRENTLY TABULATING THE 
RESULTS OF ITS OWN SURVEY (1800 RESPONDENTS), WHICH 
FOCUSED ON VOTER APATHY AND VOTER TURNOUT.  THE RESULTS 
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PAGE 04        HARARE  03398  01 OF 02  141508Z 
SHOULD BE RELEASED IN ABOUT TWO WEEKS, HE SAID.  THE 
RESPECTED HELEN SUZMAN FOUNDATION, WHICH CONDUCTED THREE 
IMPORTANT SURVEYS IN ZIMBABWE LAST YEAR, IS ALSO DUE TO 
RELEASE ANOTHER ONE BY THE END OF THE MONTH, SITHOLE 
NOTED. 
 
POLL METHODOLOGY 
---------------- 
 
4.  (C) THE "GAZETTE" SURVEY WAS CARRIED OUT BY THE 
INDEPENDENT MARKETING RESEARCH ORGANIZATION TARGET 
RESEARCH -- BASED IN SOUTH AFRICA -- BETWEEN AUGUST 17 
AND SEPTEMBER 28.  SITHOLE REMARKED THAT HE DOES NOT 
KNOW TARGET RESEARCH WELL, BUT HE HAS HEARD THEY HAVE A 
GOOD REPUTATION IN SOUTHERN AFRICA.  ITS RESEARCHERS 
POLLED 3,013 PEOPLE NATIONWIDE -- THE LARGEST SURVEY OF 
ITS KIND TO DATE -- AND THE RESULTS HAD A 2.7 PERCENT 
MARGIN OF ERROR.  THE RESULTS WERE WEIGHTED AND 
TABULATED ACCORDING TO MANY FACTORS, INCLUDING GENDER, 
ETHNICITY, AGE GROUP, EDUCATION, AND URBAN/RURAL 
LOCATION. 
 
COMMENT: THE RACE WILL BE CLOSE 
------------------------------- 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5236 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  03398  02 OF 02  141508Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  USNW-00  DINT-00  DODE-00 
      DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   FAAE-00  FBIE-00 
      VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    LAB-01   L-00 
      VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PC-01 
      PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    TRSE-00  USIE-00 
      PMB-00   DSCC-00  DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /008W 
                  ------------------3E1C42  141509Z /38 
P 141424Z NOV 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0272 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 003398 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: NEW ZIMBABWE SURVEY PORTENDS CLOSE PRESIDENTIAL 
ELECTION 
 
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PAGE 02        HARARE  03398  02 OF 02  141508Z 
5.  (C) BEFORE PUTTING TOO MUCH STOCK IN THIS POLL, ONE 
MUST CONSIDER THE FOLLOWING CAVEATS.  WE ARE UNABLE TO 
PROVIDE MORE THAN A LAYMAN'S ASSESSMENT OF EITHER THE 
METHODOLOGY OR THE BONA FIDES OF TARGET RESEARCH.  THE 
QUESTIONS USED BY THE POLLSTERS, WHICH IN THEMSELVES CAN 
SKEW THE RESULTS, WERE NOT MADE AVAILABLE IN THE 
PUBLISHED RESULTS.  IN ADDITION, THE "GAZETTE" CLAIMS 
THAT IN 1999 MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY NAMED TARGET 
RESEARCH ONE OF SIX "OUTSTANDING RESEARCH ORGANIZATIONS 
IN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA," A CLAIM THAT IS 
APPARENTLY UNFOUNDED.  MOREOVER, THE "GAZETTE" APPEARS 
TO ASSUME THAT THE LARGE NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO DID NOT 
RESPOND TO THE SURVEY WOULD SUPPORT THE MDC.  THE SURVEY 
DID NOT MAKE CLEAR HOW THE POLLSTERS DETERMINED WHO IS 
AND WHO IS NOT AN MDC SUPPORTER AMONG THE 
NONRESPONDENTS. 
 
6.  (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: ALTHOUGH SURVEY STATISTICS 
CAN BE MANIPULATED TO SHOW ALMOST ANYTHING, THE 
"GAZETTE" POLL DOES SHOW, NO MATTER HOW THE NUMBERS ARE 
SLICED, THAT SUPPORT FOR THE TWO PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES 
APPEARS TO BE NEARLY EVENLY DIVIDED.  BOTH PARTIES 
APPEAR TO BE HOLDING ONTO THEIR KEY REGIONS AND 
DEMOGRAPHICS FOR SUPPORT.  MORE THAN A YEAR OF ECONOMIC 
DECLINE AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE HAS ERODED SUPPORT FOR 
PRESIDENT MUGABE SOMEWHAT, BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT THAT 
MIGHT BE EXPECTED.  THE SURVEY RESULTS COULD EVEN 
REPRESENT A TURNAROUND FOR ZANU-PF, WHICH A YEAR AGO WAS 
AT ITS LOWEST SUPPORT LEVELS SINCE INDEPENDENCE, IF ONE 
USES THE LAST HELEN SUZMAN FOUNDATION POLL AS A GUIDE. 
 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  03398  02 OF 02  141508Z 
7.  (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: THE KEY FACTOR IN THE 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WILL BE THE LARGE NUMBER OF 
UNDECIDED VOTERS AND WHETHER THEY TURN OUT TO VOTE.  IT 
IS UNKNOWN HOW MANY OF THESE MAY BE MDC SUPPORTERS 
AFRAID TO EXPREC THEIR TRUE OPINION.  A SHOCKING 25 
PERCENT OF SURVEY RESPONDENTS REVEALED THAT THEY CHANGED 
THEIR VOTING BEHAVIOR IN 2000 BECAUSE OF POLITICAL 
INTIMIDATION (14 PERCENT DID NOT VOTE AND 11 PERCENT 
VOTED FOR A DIFFERENT CANDIDATE).  THE "UNDECIDEDS" MAY 
WELL DECIDE TO STAY HOME ON ELECTION DAY IF THEY FEEL 
UNSAFE, WHILE ONLY THE DIEHARD SUPPORTERS OF BOTH 
PARTIES CAST THEIR BALLOT.  WITH ALL THE ADVANTAGES OF 
INCUMBENCY, IT WOULD THEN BE MUCH EASIER FOR ZANU-PF TO 
MANIPULATE A CLOSE ELECTION.  NEW SURVEYS DUE OUT THIS 
MONTH SHOULD SHED MORE LIGHT ON THE LIKELY ELECTION 
OUTCOME.  END COMMENT. 
 
SULLIVAN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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