US embassy cable - 04CARACAS3215

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 003215 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, VE 
SUBJECT: FRANCISCO ARIAS CARDENAS' OUTLOOK ON CHAVEZ AND 
VENEZUELA 
 
 
Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for 
Reason 1.4(d) 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) Former Zulia State Governor, Francisco Arias Cardenas, 
told the Ambassador on October 14 that President Hugo 
Chavez's antagonism had served Chavez well in the past, but 
he was now looking to improve relations with the U.S.  Arias 
asserted that the President would not let the differences 
escalate to those the U.S. has with Cuba.  However, Arias 
said, Chavez would react with aggression to any criticism 
from the U.S. government, because he assumes the U.S. intends 
to destroy his government.  Arias, who is again running for 
governor of Zulia State, also claimed that the upcoming 
regional elections would redefine the political face of 
Venezuela in Chavez's favor, with the opposition's mistakes 
costing its candidates dearly.  End Summary. 
 
 
2. (C) The Ambassador and Poloff met October 14 with 
Francisco Arias Cardenas, a candidate for governor in the 
western border oil state of Zulia.  Arias, an ex-army officer 
who also participated in the 1992 coup attempt with President 
Hugo Chavez, brought Jorge Garrido, Secretary General of the 
Union political party that Arias founded. 
 
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Chavez's Mentality 
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3. (C) The Ambassador told Arias he believed many people were 
awaiting the outcome of the presentation of his credentials 
for an indication of future U.S.-Venezuelan relations. Arias 
asserted that Chavez's antagonism towards the U.S. had served 
him in the past, but he was now looking to improve relations 
while maintaining respect and dignity.  Chavez, he said, 
would prefer not to let the confrontation escalate to the 
same level that Castro has with the U.S.  The Ambassador 
asked if Chavez would be able to manage pragmatic 
collaboration on some topics even though the U.S. would 
continue to disagree with him on regional issues and 
democratic institutions.  Arias responded that Chavez is 
paranoid about U.S. intention to destroy him, and those fears 
will be reconfirmed by those around him at the first sign of 
disagreement or criticism from the U.S.  Chavez's paranoia 
will cause him to react aggressively, Arias asserted.  Arias 
said it might be helpful if the Ambassador specifically 
pointed out to Chavez that a disagreement was not an attack, 
and that on a wider scale many topics existed on which the 
two countries could cooperate. 
 
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Political Outlook 
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4. (C) Arias asserted that the upcoming regional elections 
would redefine the political face of Venezuela in Chavez's 
favor.  The big opposition political parties, he said, will 
lose most of the races.  The opposition parties lost their 
way and need to be rational and accept that some of Chavez's 
ideas are good, Arias asserted, while still rejecting 
authoritarian, centralist and anti-democratic tendencies. 
The "missions", especially the Cuban doctors and teachers, 
are making a big impact on the people, Arias said.  Chavez 
has control of many institutions now, Arias noted, and in the 
next two years those who oppose him will lose more and more 
of their resources.  Arias said he foresaw Chavez being 
re-elected in 2006, thus maintaining power for the next eight 
years.  There are no alternatives that opposition parties can 
offer, Arias asserted.  Miranda State Governor Enrique 
Mendoza, he said, suffered a big defeat with the referendum, 
and will likely be defeated again.  Arias also asserted that 
Manuel Rosales, the current Zulia state governor running for 
reelection against Arias, would not be a possible leading 
political figure since he is likely to be convicted of 
treason for the April 2002 events regardless of whether he 
wins or loses the regional election. 
 
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Boarder Issues 
--------------- 
 
5. (C) Arias said kidnapping and paying "protection money" to 
criminals and guerrillas is common in Zulia State.  He said 
drugs and drug trafficking were a problem, but now there was 
no way to identify how extensive the problem was because 
there were no satellite images or inspections by the armed 
forces.  The people are afraid to confront the Colombian 
problem directly, Arias said, and the local, regional and 
national governments compete rather than cooperate, so no one 
addressed border problems or crime. 
 
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Comment 
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6. (C) Francisco Arias Cardenas' insight into Chavez's 
mentality was interesting given their past connection in the 
military service and the 1992 coup attempt. Arias, a former 
governor of Zulia state who lost to Manuel Rosales, had 
reasonable predictions about the political outlook, but of 
course, he is not completely unbiased, particularly with 
regards to his rival Rosales. 
McFarland 
 
 
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