US embassy cable - 04RANGOON1359

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001359 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV; PACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/18/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, MOPS, PINR, BM 
SUBJECT: BURMESE PRIME MINISTER OUSTED?  CRESCENDO OF 
RUMORS REACHES A FEVERISH PITCH 
 
REF: A. RANGOON 1345 
     B. RANGOON 1337 
 
Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
1.(C) Summary: Rangoon is abuzz on October 19 with rumors 
that a Burmese regime internal power struggle, pitting Prime 
Minister General Khin Nyunt's Military Intelligence (MI) 
against the regular military led by Senior General Than Shwe 
and Vice Senior General Maung Aye, may have resulted in 
significant changes within the ruling junta.  According to a 
senior diplomatic contact with excellent GOB access, PM Khin 
Nyunt "is no longer in his position."  Reports are credible 
that tensions within the SPDC are serious and competing 
economic interests and/or corruption may be at the root of 
current internal struggles. 
 
2. (C) As of COB, the streets and sidewalks of Rangoon 
bustled with a normal amount of activity and there appears to 
be no immediate danger to AmCits or Embassy personnel.  We've 
seen several truckloads of troops being mustered in downtown 
Rangoon (a fairly common sight) and have heard of one 
regiment being moved into the capital from an outlying area. 
According to a variety of sources, numerous senior MI 
officers have been taken in for questioning, and police and 
military units have been placed on standby alert.  Khin 
Nyunt's whereabouts are currently unknown and his office 
shelved a meeting scheduled for October 19 with the dean of 
the diplomatic corps.  His abrupt ouster or detention would 
be significant, although we would not expect an immediate 
change in current SPDC policies that are aimed at 
consolidating power, achieving national unity, suppressing 
the democratic opposition, and bolstering legitimacy through 
regional support.  End Summary. 
 
The Army versus MI? 
------------------- 
 
3. (C) The long-simmering economic rivalry (refs) between MI 
and the rest of the military apparently came to a head 
October 18 and 19 in Rangoon with numerous senior MI officers 
reportedly being arrested, detained, and/or taken in for 
questioning by regular army troops.  Some relatively light 
troop deployments around Rangoon are about the only outward 
indication of anything amiss, although such movements are 
quite common in the capital and elsewhere in Burma.  We have 
heard no reports of violence associated with the rumored 
detentions or of any threat to AmCits or U.S. Embassy 
personnel. 
 
4. (C) According to Embassy sources, soldiers and police have 
been placed on stand-by alert and we observed six or eight 
truckloads of soldiers gathering at a muster point in 
downtown Rangoon.  According to a reliable diplomatic source, 
one regiment of troops has been brought into the capital from 
a base just north of Rangoon.  Some contacts tell us that 
cell phone usage was cut for a little over an hour on the 
evening of October 18, but we cannot independently verify 
that. 
 
5. (C) Some government offices, including the Ministry of 
Home Affairs which oversees the Burmese Police, canceled 
routine meetings scheduled with diplomats on October 19. 
However, the Rangoon international airport, official media, 
and commercial sector all functioned normally.  Throughout 
the day, Rangoon bustled with a routine amount of activity, 
including markets, schools, offices, public transportation, 
and rush hour commuting. 
 
PM Khin Nyunt,s Fate? 
--------------------- 
 
6. (C) Well-placed sources variously claim that Prime 
Minister Khin Nyunt has been detained for questioning, placed 
under house arrest, sacked, and/or outright arrested.  On 
October 18, the Prime Minister reportedly made an official 
trip to and from Mandalay (Burma's second largest city) and 
was detained or questioned upon his return in the evening. 
According to a senior diplomatic contact with excellent GOB 
access, the Prime Minister "is no longer in his position." 
7. (C) Khin Nyunt's office postponed a meeting previously 
scheduled for the early evening of October 19 with the dean 
of the diplomatic corps (the Singaporean Ambassador, who 
noted that the PM's office was "ambiguous" when advising him 
of the postponement).  As of COB October 19, the Prime 
Minister's actual whereabouts are unknown.  Of note, however, 
Khin Nyunt and other senior SPDC members are rarely seen 
about town, other than via daily official media coverage of 
SPDC meetings, inspections, and "delivering of instructions" 
to subordinate troops or government entities. 
 
Comment:  Opaque and Murky 
-------------------------- 
8. (C) There are no immediate signs (as of COB Tuesday, 
Rangoon time) that a "coup" has taken place.  By all accounts 
and appearances, the Burmese military junta, the State Peace 
and Development Council (SPDC), remains firmly in control and 
under the continued leadership of Senior General Than Shwe 
and Vice Senior General Maung Aye.  Developments within the 
13-member SPDC, however, are typically more opaque.  We have 
no reason to doubt that recent tensions within the military 
(reftels) may have, over the past 36 hours, led to the 
detention and/or interrogation of senior military officials, 
a possible shuffle within the SPDC itself, or even the arrest 
and/or ouster of council members. 
 
9. (C) The preponderance of information suggests that PM Khin 
Nyunt is either detained or out of a job, although we cannot 
verify this with full certainty.  Khin Nyunt, an original 
member of the military junta that seized power in 1988, is 
the SPDC's third highest-ranking official and the regime's 
primary liaison with the country's 17 cease-fire groups as 
well as with important international partners such as China. 
His abrupt ouster or detention would be significant, although 
we would not expect an immediate change in current SPDC 
policies that are aimed at consolidating power, achieving 
national unity, suppressing the democratic opposition, and 
bolstering legitimacy through regional support.  The 
situation may remain murky for the foreseeable future. 
Further clarification could come from the SPDC itself in the 
form of an official statement, a public appearance by Khin 
Nyunt, or the undertaking of planned SPDC activities, such as 
the anticipated travel to India of SPDC Chairman Than Shwe 
o/a October 24.  End Comment. 
Martinez