US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3259

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003259 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - 
ROBERT PALLADINO 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW, Foreign Policy, Military Issues 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S. ELECTION; TAIWAN ARMS 
PROCUREMENT 
 
 
A) "Will Bush Change His Diplomatic Policies If Re- 
elected?" 
 
The "International Watch" column of the pro-status quo 
"China Times" said (10/19): 
 
"Almost all the countries of the whole world, except 
Israel, are not satisfied with the Bush 
administration's foreign policies and practices. Then, 
if Bush gets re-elected, will he change his foreign 
policies? 
 
"There are two entirely different viewpoints.  Some 
believe he will readjust his policies in accordance 
with developments in the global situation.  Others 
think, since U.S. voters do not oppose the policies, 
why does Bush need to change them? 
 
"Judging from Bush's actions during the presidential 
campaign, there seem to be no signs of change.  He does 
not regret using military force in all places and still 
plans to promote "U.S.-style freedom and democracy" 
with military force as one option.  He does not show 
any concessions to those countries that oppose U.S. 
attacks in Iraq.  There are, however, other messages 
that should not be ignored.  One foreign policy advisor 
to Bush's father, . Brent Scowcroft, recently suggested 
to [George W. Bush] that he should follow friendlier 
and more cooperative policies in his second term." 
 
B) "Some Thoughts on the U.S. Election" 
 
Commentator Paul Lin noted in the pro-independence, 
English-language "Taipei Times" (10/19): 
 
". Both China and Taiwan are paying close attention to 
the U.S. presidential election. Although the Chinese 
government outwardly remains neutral, public opinion is 
clearly on Kerry's side because his cross-strait policy 
does not mention the Taiwan Relations Act that so 
displeases China, and because once, in a slip of the 
tongue, he supported a solution of the Taiwan issue 
within China's `one country, two systems' framework. 
China therefore has better expectations of Kerry. 
 
"Two months ago, there was some information saying that 
Chinese President Hu Jintao would visit the U.S. this 
month. After the information was leaked, it then 
appeared that U.S. National Security Advisor 
Condoleezza Rice was paving the way for such a visit 
when she visited Beijing. If Hu does visit the U.S. 
this month, it will be interpreted as support for Bush. 
Maybe because Beijing is asking too high a price for 
such a visit, it now seems it will not take place. 
Instead, the 80/20 Committee, which enjoys a good 
relationship with Beijing, is urging ethnic Chinese to 
vote for the Democratic candidate 
 
"Although Taiwan remains neutral, there must be 
questions concerning Kerry's remarks. Presidential 
advisor Koo Kuan-min's recent ads in the New York Times 
and the Washington Post requesting that the U.S. review 
its `one China' policy were quickly rejected by the 
U.S. government in a clear attempt to avoid having 
external factors affect the presidential election 
campaign. The `one China' policy issue, however, is not 
only an issue when deciding whom to vote for -- it is 
also an issue that the next U.S. president should 
resolve." 
 
C) "Arms Deal Does Not Equal Security" 
 
C.V. Chen, a senior partner at the law firm Lee and Li, 
commented in the pro-independence, English-language 
"Taipei Times" (10/19): 
 
"U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Richard 
Lawless has said that if Taiwan's legislature does not 
pass the arms procurement plan, it will only prove that 
Taiwanese democracy has not yet reached a level where 
national security concerns override party politics, and 
that Taiwan would be seen as a liability, not a 
partner, by its friends in the international community. 
 
"I can sympathize with Lawless' defense of U.S. and 
Taiwanese interests, but as the bill will be picked up 
by the Taiwanese taxpayer, we need to further consider 
his comments. 
 
". [W]ill the U.S. and `other countries' doubt Taiwan's 
defense promises? I am curious to know what countries, 
apart from the U.S., are concerned about Taiwan's 
security. Lawless' statement instead highlights the 
fact that a joint defense treaty no longer exists 
between Taiwan and the U.S., and that the US according 
to international law has no obligation to defend 
Taiwan. 
 
".[D]oes opposition to the arms procurement plan mean 
telling Beijing that its threats are effective? On the 
contrary, I feel that defending the NT$600 billion arms 
procurement plan out of fear is tantamount to telling 
Beijing that threats are effective indeed. If China 
spends one dollar to build missiles, Taiwan has to 
spend four dollars to buy anti-missile equipment. Is 
there any more efficient threat than that? And Lawless' 
statement is also intended as a threat, using Beijing 
to pressure Taiwan into buying U.S. arms. 
If the people of Taiwan are not brave enough to say no 
to unreasonable behavior, then such threats will only 
increase. 
 
". Finally, the question of whether or not the NT$600 
billion arms procurement plan will be carried out will 
be symbolic of domestic democratic development and an 
opportunity to transcend the differences between the 
proponents of independence and unification, and members 
of the blue and green camps. It is crucial to whether 
the Taiwanese people will be able to leave behind the 
ideologies that have hijacked our politicians. Let us 
work together and say no to the double threat from 
Beijing and the U.S." 
 
PAAL