US embassy cable - 04QUITO2771

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 QUITO 002771 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, KCOR, PREL, EC 
SUBJECT: PRELIMINARY ECUADORIAN ELECTION RESULTS, 
IMPLICATIONS 
 
 
This cable was cleared by CG Guayaquil. 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  Ecuadorian voters went to the polls to 
elect provincial and municipal officials on October 17 in 
elections the OAS characterized publicly as "free and 
transparent."  Some irregularities were reported but in most 
polling places voting proceeded relatively smoothly. 
Preliminary results confirm that incumbents from the larger 
parties consolidated and strengthened their representation, 
at the expense of smaller party candidates.  Press 
immediately christened the re-elected mayors of Quito and 
Guayaquil as favorites for the 2006 presidential race.  It 
also appears that President Gutierrez' Patriotic Society 
Party surpassed the 5% hurdle to stave off extinction. 
Gutierrez continued to stir controversy on election day by 
threatening to overturn through regulation the method 
selected by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) to allocate 
council seats to permit some degree of proportional 
representation.  Post-electoral controversy will now move to 
the courts and Congress.  End Summary. 
 
Process Smooth Overall, Rough in Places 
--------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (U) Ecuadorian voters elected 219 mayors, 22 provincial 
prefects, 91 provincial councilors, 893 municipal councilors, 
and 3,970 rural council representatives.  OAS Election 
Observation Chief of Mission Edgardo Reis issued a press 
statement on October 18 thanking the GoE for its 
collaboration with the OAS mission and stating that "the 
electoral process proceeded in a generally calm and ordered 
manner, with the exception of some incidents reported in the 
provinces of Guayas, Bolivar, and Los Rios."  Ninety percent 
of voters interviewed by OAS observers expressed satisfaction 
with the decision of the TSE to separate voting lines by 
gender.  Eighty-five percent of the sample of voters who used 
special electronic voting machines rated their use as easy, 
and 82% supported use of the machines more widely.  The 
results of the OAS quick count in the race for mayor of Quito 
coincided with official results.  The OAS statement also 
praised the work of electoral watchdog NGO Citizen 
Participation and the unprecedented indigenous observation 
effort mounted by the Q'ellkaj Foundation (both with USAID 
support).  It also expressed concern about gaps in the 
election law about campaign financing and allocation of 
council seats. 
 
3.  (U) Although actual voting proceeded without incidents of 
violence, media reported and police sources have confirmed 
the shooting death of Pasquale Bustamante, a PSP candidate 
for town councilor in Los Rios province, in the evening after 
the polls closed.  In addition, the elections were suspended 
and will be re-run in two small municipalities (El Empalme in 
Guayas province and Pajan in Manabi province), and incidents 
were reported in the Tarqui area in Guayaquil municipality, 
in the municipality of Simon Bolivar in Guayas, and in 
Bolivar province.  Citizen Participation reported a variety 
of problems noted by its 3,100 young volunteer observers 
stationed in 42% of the voting stations nationwide, including 
campaign activities within voting areas (28%), and police 
impeding access by political party or observers to voting 
stations (17%).  Citizen Participation director Cesar 
Montufar urged Congress to address gaps in the electoral laws 
to better regulate campaign spending and the allocation of 
council seats. 
 
Embassy Volunteers Support OAS 
------------------------------ 
 
4.  (U) Thirty-eight U.S. mission volunteers participated as 
election observers under the OAS Election Observation 
Mission.  In addition to Quito and Guayaquil, Embassy and CG 
Guayaquil volunteers traveled to Babahoyo, Los Rios province; 
Manta, Manabi province; Esmeraldas; Cuenca, Azuay province; 
Ibarra, Imbabura province; and Tena, Napo province.  Embassy 
participation contributed to a successful OAS quick count in 
Quito, and provided over half of the OAS' qualitative 
observation. 
 
Large Parties Advance, PSP Fate Uncertain 
----------------------------------------- 
 
5.  (U) As expected, Paco Moncayo, the incumbent mayor of 
Quito (ID), was re-elected, as was Jaime Nebot (PSC) as mayor 
of Guayaquil.  Both were gracious and conciliatory in their 
victory speeches.  In Cuenca, the ID defeated the incumbent 
Pachakutik-endorsed mayor and won the Azuay prefect race as 
well.  In Machala, Los Rios, the PSC candidate defeated the 
PRE incumbent, although the PRE retained the prefecture.  In 
Manabi, the PSC mayor of Manta was re-elected and the PSC won 
the prefect race, also at the expense of the PRE.  The 
indigenous party, Pachakutik, appears to have preserved its 
strength in its Sierra heartland, but lost the prefecture of 
Bolivar. 
 
6.  (U) Overall, the ID won six prefectures, followed by the 
PSC and Pachakutik with five each.  The PRE won in three 
prefectures, as did the Popular Democracy Party (DP), some in 
coalitions.  The Coalition of Popular Forces (CFP) and 
Popular Democratic Movement (MPD) both won in two.  The 
National Action Institutional Renewal Party (PRIAN) won just 
one prefecture (Imbabura) and the PSP was part of a coalition 
which won in the Galapagos.  (These numbers total more than 
Ecuador's 22 provinces because of alliances made in several 
races.) 
7.  (U) It appears that President Gutierrez' PSP cleared the 
5% hurdle required to retain its party registry.  The PSP won 
the mayorships of Tena, in Gutierrez' home province of Napo; 
and of Pastaza, Morona Santiago province; in addition to the 
Galapagos prefecture.  (The 5% rule applies only to 
provincial, municipal, and rural council seats, however, and 
results in these races is still limited.)  Despite these 
advances by the PSP, opposition opinion makers are claiming 
the PSP's relatively poor showing constitutes popular 
rejection of the Gutierrez government's performance and 
program. 
 
Gutierrez: Snatching Defeat from Jaws of Victory 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
8.  (U) President Gutierrez marked the opening of polls in a 
brief address at the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) in 
which he called on winners and losers to come together in 
support of unity and national interests.  Later, in an 
impromptu press conference at his polling station and in 
post-election interviews, Gutierrez was less statemanlike 
There he continued his criticism of the method adopted by the 
TSE to allocate council seats (which likely cost his small 
 
SIPDIS 
party by reducing proportional representation), and 
criticized Congress for abdicating its responsibility to 
legislate a better method.  Gutierrez said he was holding off 
issuing his own regulations replacing the TSE's method until 
greater consensus emerged on the subject in Congress. 
 
9.  (U) Gutierrez also used the opportunity to take a swipe 
at "a certain desperate ex-President" for attacking 
Gutierrez' criticism of the judiciary (for supposed 
politicization in favor of the PSC) and his meeting with 
disgraced ex-president Abdala Bucaram in Panama.  PSC leader 
and ex-president Leon Febres-Cordero responded in kind, 
calling Gutierrez "corrupt, incapable, and an ignoramus." 
Guayaquil mayor Nebot, goaded by press to react to Gutierrez' 
threat to issue new post-electoral regulations, warned the 
President against any such move, saying the PSC and possibly 
other parties would "take to the streets" to defend what it 
won in the ballot box. 
 
Implications 
------------ 
 
10.  (SBU) It appears that President Gutierrez' efforts on 
behalf of PSP candidates staved off de-certification of his 
party.  Regardless, it is clear today that the PSP's gains 
were modest, at best.  Opposition press are claiming the 
election results constituted a referendum on Gutierrez' 
performance as President.  We find that claim overdrawn, but 
will monitor closely the effects of the ensuing spin battle. 
 
11.  (SBU) The big ID and PSC wins in their respective 
heartlands immediately fueled speculation that Paco Moncayo 
and Jaime Nebot will likely be competitors in the 2006 
presidential election (in response, both claimed only to be 
interested in serving their new four-year terms as mayor). 
Pachakutik's political stasis in its indigenous heartland 
might make it less anxious to challenge democratic stability 
than had it suffered a major reverse.  Alvaro Noboa, the 
PRIAN presidential runner-up in 2002 and presumptive 
presidential candidate in 2006, did his best to paint the 
PRIAN's middling results (many second and third places, few 
winners) as a victory placing the PRIAN among the four 
largest parties after only two years in existence.  He 
contrasted his party's national results with the strong 
regional identification of the PSC and ID. 
 
12.  (SBU) We believe the President's election-day threat to 
regulate the allocation of council seats might well have been 
election-day posturing.  The controversy over the allocation 
of seats will continue regardless, since small party losers 
are expected to mount legal challenges to rules adopted by 
the TSE which cut down on proportional representation.  Those 
challenges are unlikely to convince the courts, which are 
considered more receptive to the views of the large parties. 
Post-electoral controversy will also play out in the 
Congress, which could distract it from returning to its 
stalled legislative agenda. 
KENNEY