US embassy cable - 04JAKARTA10111

C O N F I D E N T I A L JAKARTA 010111 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/18/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, MARR, KDEM, ID 
SUBJECT: A WIN FOR YUDHOYONO IN PARLIAMENT: ARMED FORCES 
COMMANDER HEARING DELAYED 
 
REF: A. JAKARTA 9799 (SUTARTO REMAINS IN COMMAND) 
     B. JAKARTA 9750 (YUDHOYONO MEET AMBASSADOR) 
     C. JAKARTA 9664 (PARLIAMENTARY LEADERS ELECTED) 
 
Classified By: Political Officer David R. Greenberg, reason: 1.4 (d). 
 
SUMMARY 
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1. (C) The House of Representatives (DPR) on October 15 voted 
to slow-track President Megawati's appointment of Ryamizard 
Ryacudu as Armed Forces (TNI) Commander.  This decision marks 
a victory for President-elect Yudhoyono, who recently told 
the Ambassador he did not appreciate Megawati's nominating 
Ryamizard in her final days in office (ref B).  However, the 
coalition of parties supporting Yudhoyono in parliament 
remains fragile and could disintegrate if party leaders 
disagree with Yudhoyono's cabinet choices.  Yudhoyono likely 
will revoke the presidential letter to the DPR that sought to 
elevate Ryamizard, instead retaining Endriartono Sutarto as 
TNI Commander.  End Summary. 
 
MAJORITY RESISTS PRO-MEGAWATI COALITION 
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2. (U) Members of the DPR decided in an October 15 plenary 
session to defer action on President Megawati's letter 
requesting DPR approval of Army Chief of Staff Ryamizard 
Ryacudu's appointment as Commander of the Armed Forces (TNI) 
(ref A).  The debate over how to react to Megawati's letter 
reflected a division along partisan lines.  "National 
Coalition" parties that had backed President Megawati's 
reelection effort (minus the United Development Party -- PPP 
-- which recently broke off) argued that the DPR should 
establish a Special Committee (PANSUS) to hold hearings over 
the weekend and pave the way for a change of command prior to 
President-elect Yudhoyono's inauguration.  The parties 
outside of the National Coalition -- a loose grouping often 
dubbed the "People's Coalition," currently aligned with 
Yudhoyono -- argued that hearings could wait until the DPR 
had established its commissions for the 2004-2009 period. 
 
3. (U) After a break for closed-door consultations, 
Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party - Struggle (PDI-P) and 
its allies gave in to the majority position.  (Note: The 
National Coalition now consists of Golkar, PDI-P, the 
Prosperous Peace Party (PDS), and the Reform Star Party (PBR) 
-- representing a combined total of 264 of the DPR's 550 
seats.  End Note.)  Presumably, once inaugurated, Yudhoyono 
will send a new letter to the DPR, keeping TNI Commander 
Endriartono Sutarto in place and rendering this issue moot. 
 
4. (C) In the legislative battle over Sutarto's resignation 
and Ryamizard's appointment, Yudhoyono and his allies 
overcame opposition from a coalition that includes the two 
largest political parties.  However, the same pro-Yudhoyono 
constellation failed during the vote for DPR leadership 
positions (ref C), at least partly because of a split in the 
National Awakening Party.  On that occasion, parties' core 
interests were at stake, and the National Coalition devoted 
substantial resources to install its leadership slate.  By 
contrast, sparse attendance on October 15 -- barely more than 
half the DPR's legislators showed up for the plenary session 
-- indicated that few parliamentarians felt a personal stake 
in the outcome of the TNI debate. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
5. (C) Despite its initial victory in the TNI leadership 
controversy, the People's Coalition represents a collection 
of odd bedfellows that could easily disintegrate.  By October 
17, officials from two Islamist parties, the Prosperous 
Justice Party (PKS) and the Crescent Moon and Star Party 
(PBB), threatened publicly to reevaluate their support for 
the President-elect, depending on the choices he makes for 
his cabinet. 
 
6. (C) Efforts to elevate Ryamizard in the final days of 
Megawati's administration seemed driven by a degree of petty 
vindictiveness on the President's part.  Megawati appears to 
have decided against explicitly conceding her election 
defeat, meeting with Yudhoyono prior to her leaving office, 
or attending his inauguration. 
 
 
BOYCE