US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3234

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003234 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, CH, TW, Cross Strait Politics 
SUBJECT: LY CAMPAIGN ATMOSPHERICS: DPP UPBEAT 
 
REF: TAIPEI 3031 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) officials 
are cautiously optimistic the Pan-Green camp will secure a 
narrow majority in the December 11 Legislative Yuan (LY) 
election.  The DPP's campaign strategy is focused on sowing 
discord within the opposition alliance and enforcing 
discipline among DPP voters to boost chances for first-time 
candidates with little name recognition.  President Chen 
Shui-bian is using the December election to test the four 
candidates to replace him in 2008, giving each an independent 
role in the campaign.  The DPP has concentrated thus far on 
domestic themes for the election, although some party 
moderates fear that President Chen may revert to pre-election 
PRC-baiting if Lee Teng-hui is able to re-energize the Taiwan 
Solidarity Union's (TSU) stagnating campaign.  End Summary. 
 
DPP Mood: With Enemies Like This... 
----------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) DPP officials say they are relatively relaxed about 
the upcoming LY campaign, in marked contrast to the sense of 
crisis that currently grips the Pan-Blue camp (Septel). 
Based on party polls, DPP officials assert that the minimum 
number of seats the Pan-Green can be expected to win would be 
108, five short of a majority but enough to deprive the 
Pan-Blue of its current control of the 225-seat legislature. 
Veteran DPP Legislator Hong Chi-chang told AIT that "it 
doesn't really matter if we get a majority or not -- as long 
as independents hold the balance and not the Pan-Blue, we can 
govern."  Executive Yuan (EY) Research, Development, and 
Evaluation (RDEC) Vice Minister Chen Chun-lin, a veteran DPP 
campaign strategist, remarked that the DPP's current 
projected 8-9 seat gain materialized before the campaign 
season even started.  Chen assessed that "it isn't that we've 
done anything right, it's just that we are lucky to have such 
incompetent opponents." 
 
Divide and Conquer 
------------------ 
 
3. (C) Pan-Green campaign officials say the DPP's prospects 
have been boosted by a series of strategic errors over the 
past six months on the part of the Pan-Blue.  DPP Deputy 
Secretary General Lee Ying-yuan told AIT that the ruling 
 
SIPDIS 
party was seriously concerned when the Pan-Blue announced 
early in the summer a plan to limit the number of nominees. 
"There was a period when I feared we had nominated too many 
candidates," Lee commented, "but almost as soon as they 
announced their new restrictions, they started to violate 
them."  DPP officials were also worried that collapsing poll 
numbers for the People First Party (PFP) might lead to a 
pre-election Pan-Blue merger (Reftel).  Presidential Office 
Deputy Secretary General James Huang told AIT that the DPP 
has actively countered KMT efforts to marginalize PFP 
Chairman James Soong by singling him out for attacks, making 
him appear to be the DPP's real enemy.  The DPP has also 
launched a public campaign to highlight the KMT's refusal to 
dispose of its "ill-gotten" assets, a key PFP condition for a 
Pan-Blue merger. 
 
4. (C) National Security Council (NSC) Secretary General and 
veteran campaign manager Chiou I-jen told AIT that the DPP 
will use similar tactics at the local level to take advantage 
of Taiwan's multi-member district system.  "We will pick the 
strongest Pan-Blue candidate in each district and focus all 
of our attacks on him," Chiou explained, "that way Pan-Blue 
voters will see that candidate as the one the DPP wants to 
get rid of and shift their votes to defend him, hopefully 
leaving all the other Pan-Blue candidates in the district 
with too few votes to get elected." 
 
5. (C) Chiou was less optimistic that the DPP could repeat 
its successful pre-presidential election assault on the KMT's 
local faction bases.  To illustrate his concern, Chiou noted 
that the DPP managed to persuade more than a third of the 
membership of Miaoli County KMT Legislator Ho Chih-hui's 
faction to vote for Chen Shui-bian in March 20.  "We could 
get them to vote for Chen because they couldn't care less 
about Lien Chan," Chiou noted, "but we know they will all 
vote for Ho because his election matters to them."  However, 
other officials insist that the DPP is effectively playing 
local factional politics, but just in different ways.  The 
DPP's Lee noted that PFP Taitung County Magistrate Hsu 
Ching-yuan has already declared, and (independent Pan-Blue) 
Miaoli County Magistrate Fu Hsueh-peng is close to declaring, 
support for DPP candidates in their districts.  While Lee 
credited the DPP's success to patient relations building, the 
KMT has chosen to run candidates in both areas from factions 
traditionally opposed to the sitting magistrates. 
 
Themes and Appeals 
------------------ 
 
6. (C) DPP officials say that island-wide campaign appeals 
will aim both to suppress opposition turnout and to get 
Pan-Green voters to the ballot stations.  The DPP's Lee said 
that the party's twin slogans will be "Advance Reform," and 
"Care about Taiwan."  On the reform side, the DPP plans to 
emphasize the need to break gridlock in the LY.  Legislation 
to force the KMT to dispose of its assets, which has been 
blocked by the Pan-Blue in every session since 2002, will be 
a key element of this appeal.  The NSC's Chiou said the 
"Truth Investigation Commission" law would be another.  Chiou 
asserted that the powers given to the Commission under the 
Pan-Blue enacted law surpassed those enjoyed by the 
government under martial law.  Perhaps more importantly, the 
DPP's Lee noted that polls show 70 percent of the public 
supports the DPP's position that the commission should 
suspend operations until the Council of Grand Justices rules 
on the constitutionality of the law. 
 
7. (C) Lee told AIT that Pan-Blue opposition to the USD 18 
billion special defense budget package will serve as the main 
target of the DPP's "Care about Taiwan" (Gu Taiwan) campaign. 
 He said that the party is planning to hold a major rally on 
December 4 to raise public awareness over the need for 
Taiwan's defense, and to remind the public that "there are 
those in the political arena who don't care about Taiwan." 
DPP LY Defense Committee Convener Lee Wen-chung noted that 
the PFP's attempts to block the budget bill offered the DPP a 
perfect opportunity to paint the opposition, including the 
fence-sitting KMT, as pro-China sellouts.  Many DPP officials 
say that the special budget will be the only cross-Strait 
related theme in the DPP campaign, but some warn that a 
resurgence in support for the TSU may tempt President Chen to 
reach for his anti-China card (Septel). 
 
One Campaign: Four HQs 
---------------------- 
 
8. (C) One unique element of this year's DPP campaign is the 
existence of four independent campaign headquarters, headed 
by (respectively) DPP Secretary General Chang Chun-hsiung, 
Presidential Office Secretary General Su Tseng-chang, Premier 
Yu Shyi-kun, and Kaohsiung Mayor Frank Hsieh.  DPP officials 
say that President Chen ordered this model to allow aspirants 
for future party leadership the chance to show their mettle 
as campaign managers.  The EY's Chen commented that the only 
measure of coordination will be the DPP party operation, 
which will be largely run by Deputy SecGen Lee.  Lee told AIT 
that ensuring that party heavyweights don't trip over each 
other on the campaign trail has been a major headache, but 
added that the structure can be made to work if they follow 
the party's game plan.  "We have made Yu responsible for 
getting his ministers out on the stump, Hsieh is taking care 
of the south, while Su, with his charisma and popular appeal, 
is responsible for helping struggling newcomers gain name 
recognition," Lee explained.  The NSC's Chiou noted that Vice 
President Annette Lu was put in charge of the party's female 
mobilization effort after she complained of being left out. 
Lee said in reality, her role would be to stand next to the 
president and not say anything. 
 
Comment: A Win-win Election? 
---------------------------- 
 
9. (C) The current upbeat mood within the DPP is light-years 
from the tense, life-or-death struggle atmosphere that 
prevailed in the lead up to the March 20 election.  DPP 
officials appear confident that even if they do not gain an 
outright majority on December 11, wavering independents or 
KMT members disgruntled with their own party leadership will 
give them the seats needed for a working majority.  The DPP 
may have considerable leverage to shift the balance after the 
election, since the constitutional amendment to halve the 
size of the LY passed in August will lead many to consider 
alternative forms of future employment.  A number of DPP 
officials have also asserted privately that a strong KMT 
showing would not necessarily be a bad outcome either, as it 
might extend the leadership of the incompetent Lien Chan. 
The DPP's positive assessment of the electoral landscape has 
given rise to an unprecedented tolerance for experimentation, 
both with nominations and campaign organization. 
PAAL