US embassy cable - 04BANGKOK7216

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 007216 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/BCLTV 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, ECON, TH, Elections - Thai, Thai Prime Minister, TRT - Thai Rak Thai 
SUBJECT: THAILAND:  PM THAKSIN KICKS OFF HIS RE-ELECTION 
CAMPAIGN WITH PROMISES APLENTY 
 
REF: (A) BANGKOK 7186 (B) BANGKOK 6995 
 
 1.  (U)  Summary.  In a live nationally-televised Bangkok 
rally on October 17, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra 
officially opened his run for re-election with a flurry of 
"populist" promises to the Thai voters.  From job training 
programs and new housing projects to expanded transportation 
systems and river basin development, Thaksin promised to 
eradicate poverty in Thailand within his next term if his 
government is given another four year lease in office. 
Thaksin was in rare form, alternately boasting of his ability 
to deliver while lambasting the main opposition Democrat 
Party (DP) for its inability to do so.  In a calculated ploy 
to humanize his image, Thaksin admitted to a tendency to lose 
his temper with critics and bemoaned the effect of being 
Prime Minister on his sex life.  DP Leader Banyat Bantadtan, 
not surprisingly, criticized Thaksin for holding a gaudy 
campaign inauguration while providing no answers to the 
issues of Avian Flu and southern violence.  Despite -- or 
perhaps because of -- recent polls showing a softening in 
voter support, the Prime Minister is mounting a pronouncedly 
populist political campaign that offers something for 
everyone in Thai society.  End Summary. 
 
GRAND OFFICIAL LAUNCH OF THAKSIN'S SECOND BID 
 
2.  (U)  PM Thaksin formally launched his bid for a second 
four year term before thousands of loyalists from his Thai 
Rak Thai (TRT) party in a nationally televised extravaganza 
on October 17.  The Hua Mark indoor Stadium venue in Bangkok 
was connected through a teleconferencing link to thousands 
more TRT supporters at eight locations throughout Thailand, 
including Samut Sakhon, Chon Buri, Chiang Mai, Nakhon 
Ratchasima, Khon Kaen, Nakhon Phanom, Saraburi and 
Phattalung.  The Prime Minister came with a full bag of 
trademark "populist" promises for his next term, designed to 
appeal especially to voters in the nation's 74,000 villages. 
Vowing to the national audience that he will eradicate 
poverty in Thailand over the next four years, Thaksin 
promised his crucial rural constituency that his earlier 
rotating village fund scheme will evolve into a system of 
village "banks" offering easy access to loans for farmers. 
Thaksin also announced that his government will form a 
organization to take out loans for poor farmers that the 
recipients will be able to repay with produce and livestock. 
 
3.  (U)  Thaksin declared that his second administration will 
also dispatch "poverty eradication caravans" throughout 
Thailand to provide job training for the unemployed, who 
would also be given a 100 baht daily allowance (approx. 41 
baht equals 1 US dollar) for participating.  Thaksin also 
promised that land right papers will be issued to squatting 
farmers who are now occupying and using public land.  In 
another nod to the nation's lower income group, Thaksin 
announced that he will expand his 30 baht medical care 
program through increased levies on tobacco, alcohol and 
other "vices."  The poor will also be given more low cost 
housing and slums will be eradicated (though no one will be 
forced to leave them, he reassuringly added). 
 
4.  (U)  Thaksin also provided for Thailand's middle class in 
his package of promises.  Addressing a subject dear to the 
heart of every Bangkok commuter -- the city's massive traffic 
jams -- Thaksin vowed to spend 1.1 trillion baht to improve 
traffic flow in and around the capital.  He promised to build 
more "sky train" (elevated tracked transport) and subway 
routes -- while keeping fares low for the ridership.  Tax 
deductions up to 60,000 baht will be offered to those caring 
for elderly parents.  Small business will be granted a higher 
tax deductible income base on their revenue.  Thaksin told 
his supporters and the nationwide audience that that his 
second administration also will develop the country's river 
basins and construct more reservoirs to combat drought. 
Bureaucratic performance will be improved and corruption 
addressed. 
 
"I CAN DELIVER" 
 
5.  (U)  Thaksin, casually dressed in his TRT party jacket 
and clearly dominating his enthusiastic, flag-waving crowd, 
repeatedly pumped on the theme of TRT's ability to deliver on 
its promises.  He outlined his own successes and also made 
repeated references to the opposition Democrat Party's 
"failures."  Referring to the question of how he will fund 
all of his promised programs, Thaksin -- the country's most 
successful businessman -- declared that "we have the money 
because I know how to make money.  And when I promise to do 
something, you can be sure I can deliver, unlike the other 
party that failed because they promised but couldn't 
deliver."  Thaksin referred proudly to his record as prime 
minister over the past four years, pointing out that during 
this period Thailand came out of the economic crisis that had 
plagued it since 1997.  (Note:  Thaksin emphasized how his 
government has performed for the nation's economy.  For 
example, he  pointedly noted to his audience in the DP 
stronghold southern city of Phattalung that under his 
administration rubber and palm oil prices are good, as are 
tourist numbers) 
 
THAKSIN MAKES SOME INTERESTING ADMISSIONS 
 
6.  (U)  Thaksin told the assembled faithful that, though 
weary from his four years in office, he believed he had 
successfully addressed many of the country's problems.  In a 
moment of introspection, Thaksin admitted that he had been 
"rash and hot headed at times" with his critics, but vowed to 
"keep cool." (Note:  This is not the first time the Prime 
Minister has vowed to curb his famous temper.)  Oddly, after 
ruing that his duties as Prime Minister has given him little 
time to spend with his family, he volunteered that "my sex 
life also suffers."  The two-hour show concluded with 
displays of cheering crowds, balloons and fireworks. 
 
TRT TARNISHED IN RECENT MONTHS 
 
7.  (SBU)  Comment:  Thaksin has come out with a strong 
populist platform that will undoubtedly excite his rural vote 
base, if not the more skeptical Bangkok electorate.   He is 
anxious to shore up a widely perceived sag in his party's 
popularity since last summer's win of the Bangkok 
governorship by the Democrat Party.  Troubled by an inability 
thus far to stem chronic violence in the south and a recent 
revival of the Avian Flu scare, Thaksin is talking more 
defensively.  His public comments scale back his earlier 
predictions of a massive Thai Rak Thai win in the next 
general election.  In recent remarks, Thaksin appeared to 
back away from his earlier call for 400 out of 500 
parliamentary seats.  On October 12, Thaksin told the 
"Nation" newspaper that the TRT is "certain" to win 200 seats 
and to take a proportionate number of the 100 party list 
seats given automatic appointments in ratio to their parties' 
total vote.  Apart from the latest reshuffle (ref b), Thaksin 
has been rolling out a number of public initiatives recently 
to buttress his popularity.  These include the recent 
inauguration of a campaign against corruption, salary hikes 
for low-level government employees and minimum wage 
increases. 
 
CAMPAIGNING TO ACCELERATE 
 
8.  (SBU)  Comment continued:  Election campaign-related 
activities will continue to pick up.  So will the exchange 
between the opponents.  DP Leader Banyat Bantadtan criticized 
Thaksin for holding a gaudy campaign inauguration while 
providing no answers to the issues of reemergence of Avian 
Flu and southern violence.  Thaksin, for his part, will 
likely repeat his characterization of the DP as weak, out of 
touch and unable to deliver on campaign promises.  Thaksin 
appears confident that his hold is secure on the vote-rich 
north and northeast regions of the country.  He is preparing, 
however, for a battle with the DP for the much less certain 
south and central regions.  His campaign kickoff suggests 
that Thaksin will rely on a re-election strategy of direct 
appeal to voters over the head of local power brokers, 
something similar to the method that served him so well in 
2000-01.  He is again prepared to offer the electorate as 
many blandishments as it takes to win, whether they are 
financially sound and fully realizable or not.  End 
Comment. 
 
 
 
 
 
JOHNSON