US embassy cable - 04PHNOMPENH1609

C O N F I D E N T I A L  PHNOM PENH 001609 
 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/BCLTV 
DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS USAID/ANE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, CB 
SUBJECT: CAMBODIA HAS A NEW KING -- NORODOM SIHAMONI 
 
Classified By: DCM Mark C. Storella for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C)  Summary:  On October 14, the Cambodian Throne 
Council unanimously (9-0) elected Norodom Sihamoni as the new 
King of Cambodia.  Sihamoni (51), a son of former King 
Norodom Sihanouk and Queen Monineath, has lived for years in 
France as a dancer and Cambodian Ambassador to UNESCO.  He 
will be formally invested in a ceremony in Phnom Penh October 
29.  Sihanouk engineered the choice of Sihamoni to ensure the 
continuation of the monarchy.  PM Hun Sen supported the 
choice, perhaps because Sihamoni is apolitical and believed 
to be relatively pliable.  Sihamoni's half-brother, Prince 
Ranariddh, went along, probably grudgingly, but may still 
harbor desires someday to replace Sihamoni, possibly upon 
Sihanouk's death.  Sihanouk will now likely work behind the 
scenes to train Sihamoni and keep his hand in politics.  The 
succession went forward in a remarkably orderly and peaceful 
fashion in apparent conformity with the constitution and will 
likely contribute to stability.  Sihamoni has the bearing and 
open spirit of a King.  It is striking that the Cambodian 
people have shown little reaction to Sihanouk's decision to 
step down after 63 years at the center of Cambodian political 
life.  End Summary. 
 
Anatomy of an Abdication 
------------------------ 
 
2.  (C)  Former King Sihanouk has never been satisfied with 
his constitutional role as a monarch who "reigns but does not 
rule."  Since reassuming the throne in 1993, Sihanouk has 
seen his power progressively eroded by powerful politicians, 
especially Hun Sen, and a more open political system. 
Sihanouk apparently took particular offense when  his son, 
Prince Ranariddh, and opposition politician Sam Rainsy walked 
away from a new power sharing formula Sihanouk had brokered 
last November.  He was further disappointed when political 
leaders refused his summons to Pyongyang this spring to 
settle the political deadlock.  Sihanouk has found himself 
uncomfortably marginalized.  At the same time, Sihanouk at 
81, has complained of increasing medical problems, and has no 
doubt focused on his legacy. 
 
3.  (C)  When Sihanouk announced his resignation October 7, 
many assumed it was another empty threat designed to provoke 
calls for him to assume a greater role.  In fact, it now 
seems that a tired Sihanouk was focused on using what cards 
he had left to ensure his own succession and the continuation 
of the monarchy.  In recent days, Sihanouk has spoken openly 
about his concerns about the strength of republic sentiment, 
which exists in all three top political parties, including 
the royalists.  Under the Cambodian constitution, a new King 
is to be elected from among members of the three royal blood 
lines by the Throne Council within seven days of the death of 
the former King.  A sitting King has no inherent 
constitutional role and there is no heir apparent.  And the 
constitution is moot on what happens of the King abdicates. 
It is now apparent that Sihanouk had worked behind the scenes 
with Hun Sen and others to permit him maximum influence in 
the selection of his own successor. 
 
Why Sihamoni? 
------------- 
 
4.  (C)  Many had long speculated that Ranariddh, Sihanouk's 
oldest son, would be the logical choice for King.  However, 
Sihanouk has had a rancorous relationship with Ranariddh for 
years.  Sihanouk may have worried that having such an overtly 
political son as King would put the monarchy itself in 
danger.  But, most important, Sihanouk is devoted to Queen 
Monineath, and, therefore, has long expressed support for his 
son by her, Norodom Sihamoni.  The selection of Sihamoni no 
doubt took on even greater emotional urgency for the Queen 
with the untimely death of her other son my Sihanouk, Prince 
Narindrapong, earlier this year. 
 
5.  (C)  Sihanouk needed Hun Sen's support to control his own 
succession because Hun Sen controls a majority of the seats 
on the nine-member Throne Council.  Hun Sen has expressed his 
support for Sihamoni, who is likely an attractive choice for 
two reasons:  first, Sihamoni is widely assumed to have no 
political experience or ambition; second, the selection of 
Sihamoni puts Ranariddh, a key competitor of Hun Sen, in a 
kind of political box, limiting Ranariddh's political options 
and increasing his dependence on Hun Sen. 
 
6.  (C)  At Sihanouk's request, the National Assembly quickly 
passed laws to permit election of a new King upon abdication 
and to permit election by a simple majority of the Throne 
Council, thus ensuring that Ranariddh -- a member of the 
Council by virtue of his position as president of the 
National Assembly -- could not block a vote on Sihamoni. 
Ranariddh has recently claimed his support for Sihamoni, to 
which Sihanouk publicly replied, "anyone who tells you he 
does not want to be King is lying." 
 
What of Sihanouk's Future? 
-------------------------- 
 
7.  (C)  Sihanouk claims he intends to live quietly in 
retirement.  But no one is counting Sihanouk out yet.  He has 
indicated his intention to live in Phnom Penh probably in the 
palace in close proximity to King Sihamoni.  Speculation is 
that Sihanouk will seek to mentor his son as King.  There are 
also rumors that Sihanouk may someday reenter the political 
fray openly, possibly by starting his own political party. 
As far fetched as that may sound now, Sihanouk abdicated the 
first time in 1955 precisely so that he could play an overtly 
political role and become prime minister. 
 
And Ranariddh...? 
----------------- 
 
8.  (C)  Ranariddh has professed support for his brother 
Sihamoni as King and voted for Sihamoni in the Throne 
Council.  Nevertheless, there is ongoing speculation in Phnom 
Penh that Ranariddh still hopes one day to ascend the throne. 
 While the selection of Sihamoni probably portends greater 
stability in Cambodia, one cannot rule out a tense period 
upon Sihanouk's eventual passing.  Sihamoni has been King for 
only 24 hours, and the rumor mill in Phnom Penh is already 
churning out speculation that Ranariddh may still hope to 
succeed his half-brother, possibly upon Sihamoni's eventual 
abdication. 
 
Implications for the U.S. 
------------------------- 
 
9.  (C)  For the time being, there is no indication of any 
negative impact of Sihamoni's ascension on the throne.  The 
process by which Sihamoni was chosen was remarkably peaceful 
and orderly, which bodes well for stability in Cambodia.  At 
the same time, we know little of Sihamoni's political views. 
He has a close attachment to France and is a French citizen, 
but we are unaware of him ever expressing strong views about 
the U.S.  Since Sihanouk became King in 1941, U.S. relations 
with the palace have often been rocky or worse.  With 
Sihamoni's ascension as King, we have an opportunity to open 
a new chapter with the Cambodian monarchy. 
 
 
Ray