US embassy cable - 04ACCRA2041

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ACCRA 002041 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/13/2014 
TAGS: GH, PGOV, PHUM, GOG 
SUBJECT: GHANA'S ELECTION:  NPP CONFIDENT OF VICTORY 
 
 
Classified By: POLCHIEF SCOTT TICKNOR FOR REASONS 1.5 D AND E. 
 
1.  (C)  Summary:  Charge met on October 13 with the Chairman 
of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) and several senior 
NPP officials to discuss upcoming elections.  The Chairman 
was confident the NPP would win the election, largely because 
of the government's economic performance.  He was pleased 
with the Electoral Commission's work to date and predicted a 
peaceful, generally fair election (although he saw the 
potential for some minor election-related fraud).  He was 
cynical about election observers (saying they could easily be 
deceived) and hoped the USG would provide direct funding to 
parties for capacity development.  End summary. 
 
2.  (SBU)  On October 13, Charge hosted a lunch for Haruna 
Esseku, Chairman of the NPP, Dan Botwe, General Secretary of 
the NPP, and two other NPP officials, to discuss the December 
7 parliamentary and presidential elections.  Charge explained 
that we were hosting similar events for all of Ghana's 
political parties, as well as the Electoral Commission and 
members of civil society. 
 
Background on the NPP 
--------------------- 
 
3.  (U)  The ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) is heir to the 
pre-independence federalist and conservative National 
Liberation Movement (NLM), the post-independence United Party 
(an umbrella grouping of conservative parties) and former 
President (1969-72) Kofi Busia's Progress Party.  Dominated 
by timber merchants, lawyers and chiefs in Ashanti and Akyem 
Abuakwa, these parties were essentially organized to oppose 
Kwame Nkrumah and his socialist vision for Ghana.  The NPP 
has ruled Ghana since winning 57 percent of the popular vote 
in a run-off presidential election in 2000.  The NPP has 103 
seats in parliament (out of 200 total).  The party is 
pro-market and pro-Western, with its stronghold in Ashanti 
and Eastern regions. 
 
NPP Confident 
------------- 
 
4.  (C)  NPP Chairman Esseku was confident the NPP would win 
with a comfortable majority in the upcoming elections.  He 
predicted the opposition National Democratic Congress Party 
(NDC) would drop from its current 89 parliamentary seats (out 
of 200) to no more than 50 seats (out of an expanded 230 
total seats).  While Esseku acknowledged that many factors 
can influence voters, he thought the NPP's strength was its 
economic performance.  The NDC is focused on attacking the 
government's development record, he said.  This message would 
get little traction, he thought, while conceding that the NDC 
will benefit from its extensive party organization, built up 
through its twenty years in power.  However, voters associate 
the NDC with a legacy of fear, Esseku contended.  Unlike 
before the 2000 election, there is now no atmosphere of 
anxiety and fear.  Ghanaians appreciate President Kufuor as a 
caring consensus builder. 
 
Election Issues? 
---------------- 
 
5.  (C)  Esseku was pleased with the performance of the 
Electoral Commission and the ongoing display of the 
provisional voter registration list.  The government would 
"nip in the bud" any election-related violence, taking extra 
security precautions in the volatile northern region.  The 
potential for election fraud would be minimized, although 
there was always the potential for some "die hard criminals" 
to try to manipulate some balloting.  Botwe noted that the 
fact that some people have been imprisoned for double 
registration indicates that there have already been some 
attempts at election fraud. 
 
6.  (C)  Esseku rejected opposition criticism of the NPP.  He 
debunked some claims that the NPP has been deploying its own 
party police force.  In response to criticism that the NPP 
has gained undue advantage from incumbency, he said any such 
issues with the NPP pale in comparison with the NDC's abuse 
of incumbency in the 2000 election campaign.  President 
Kufuor was refraining from using party colors during 
government functions.  The NDC had been unable to 
substantiate its broad allegations of government corruption. 
 
USG Support for Parties 
----------------------- 
 
7.  (C)  Esseku and Botwe hoped the USG could facilitate 
nonpartisan capacity building for political parities, 
preferably channeled directly to the parties or through the 
Electoral Commission (not through NGOs), as the Netherlands 
government is doing.  Charge explained that the USG and U.S. 
organizations generally offer support related to the overall 
democratic process, not to specific parties or party 
development. 
Comment 
------- 
 
8.  (C)  While Esseku's confident predictions are 
unsurprising, NPP contacts are privately more cautious.  A 
GOG intelligence service survey done in June 2004 reportedly 
predicts that the NPP will poll around 50 percent of the 
popular vote in the presidential race, 14 percentage points 
less than the party's internal target.  Esseku admitted to 
poloff privately after the lunch that he is spending a great 
deal of time patching up divisions within the party over some 
parliamentary candidates.  We were somewhat surprised by 
Esseku and Botwe's cynicism about election observers.  It 
reflects in part a latent suspicion of NGOs.  Some in the NPP 
also believe foreign election observers in the 1992 and 1996 
elections were too quick to pronounce on the integrity of 
elections which the NPP viewed as flawed.  Despite this 
cynicism, we do not expect the NPP or GOG to put any 
obstacles in the way of observers. 
 
 
LANIER