US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3229

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003229 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, TW 
SUBJECT: LY PRESIDENT WANG ON ELECTION POLITICS 
 
REF: TAIPEI 03141 
 
Classified By: AIT Deputy Director David Keegan, Reasons: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: Legislative Yuan (LY) President Wang Jin-pyng 
told AIT that he expects the Pan-Blue to maintain its LY 
majority despite the PFP's declining popularity.  Wang 
projected that there would be virtually no change in the 
balance between the two camps from the 2001 election.  Wang 
downplayed prospects that the KMT and PFP would complete 
their merger before the December LY election.  He told AIT 
that given the acrimonious relations between all the parties, 
constructive debate on legislation pending before the LY, 
including the supplemental defense budget, will be difficult. 
 Wang's prediction that the Pan-Blue will prevail may reflect 
more his hope to remain speaker than it does cold political 
realities.  End Summary. 
 
December LY Election 
-------------------- 
 
2. (C) Commenting on each party's prospects in the December 
11 LY election, Wang told AIT October 6 that he thought the 
DPP would win 86 of 225 elected seats.  The TSU, Wang said 
would win 15-16 seats, giving the Pan-Green alliance 101-102 
seats in the next LY session.  Wang estimated that the KMT 
would win 76-78 seats (including four from the New Party). 
He was less optimistic about the PFP's election prospects. 
Wang initially predicted that the PFP would gain 46 seats. 
Then in the same breath, he revised this number down to 43, 
thought for a moment, and changed the number to 35.  After 
more thought, he settled on 38-39, as the number of seats he 
expected the PFP to win, giving the Pan-Blue 114-117 seats. 
Wang pointed out that even if the Pan-Green were to win 
another 4 seats, the Pan-Blue would still be the largest camp 
with 110-113 seats.  Wang said that he expected that a few 
pro-Blue independents would give the Blue a working majority. 
 
Bad time for multi-partisan cooperation 
--------------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) Wang told AIT that he was also trying to heal the 
growing rift between the KMT and PFP but many KMT legislators 
saw the PFP's decline in the polls as being beneficial to 
their election prospects.  Wang could not explain why KMT 
elders, such as former Premier Lee Huan, had been attacking 
PFP Chairman James Soong in the press.  As the currently 
situation stands, Wang said he did not expect a KMT-PFP 
merger before the December election. 
 
4. (C) Wang said the relations between all the parties are 
extremely acrimonious at the moment, which has made 
coordination and cooperation on legislation pending before 
the LY very difficult.  He cited the special defense 
procurement budget as an example (Reftel).  He also 
complained that the Presidential Office is trying to taint 
his reputation within the Pan-Blue by creating an impression 
that he is colluding with the DPP on various issues and 
fronts.  He said that those rumors had made it difficult for 
him to operate effectively within the KMT.  When asked about 
the effect of local media reports about his meeting with 
former President Lee Teng-hui, Wang evaded the question and 
said that Lee cannot abide Chen Shui-bian and called those 
meetings to rant about Chen. 
 
Comment: Silent as an oyster 
---------------------------- 
 
5. (C) Throughout the conversation Wang was clearly measuring 
each word and impression like the skilled backroom machine 
politician he has long been.  In response to rumors that he 
has "green bones" and has been working with Chen Shui-bian 
and Lee Teng-hui, and to questions about his role within the 
KMT, Wang was as guarded as ever.  As usual, he attacked Chen 
and the Presidential Office for efforts to undermine him, and 
even complained that they were tapping his telephones and 
conversations. 
 
6. (C) Wang's assessment of the Pan-Blue's election prospects 
appear to be on the optimistic end, giving his side about 
four percentage points higher than what other political 
observers are estimating.  While most observers agree that a 
major shift in LY balance is unlikely, Wang's numbers assume 
that voters disillusioned with the PFP would automatically 
shift their support to the KMT.  The estimate may be even 
more unrealistic, given the almost total lack of a Pan-Blue 
election strategy, a subject we will address septel. 
However, since Wang's own political future hinges on the 
Pan-Blue maintaining a majority so that he can remain 
speaker, it is not surprising that he would see the cup more 
than half full. 
PAAL