US embassy cable - 04QUITO2759

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 002759 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, KCOR, PREL, EC 
SUBJECT: FINAL ECUADORIAN ELECTIONS UPDATE 
 
 
1.  (U) Summary:  This cable provides information about the 
upcoming October 17 provincial/local elections, their 
significance, a summary of Embassy involvement in the OAS 
electoral observation mission, information on how to reach us 
on election day, suggested press guidance, and a synopsis of 
recent election-related developments.  End Summary. 
 
Why This Election is Important 
------------------------------ 
 
2.  (SBU) This election could spell the end of President 
Gutierrez' Patriotic Society Party (PSP), which must win at 
least 5% of the national vote for council seats to stay in 
business.  President Gutierrez has defied tradition and 
generated controversy by stumping openly for his party's 
candidates in an effort to stave off a humiliating defeat. 
Despite the President's campaign efforts and largesse, 
experts differ on whether this effort will be sufficient to 
clear the 5% hurdle.  In addition to the PSP, four other 
parties are facing the same prospect of electoral oblivion. 
De-certification of a political party is not automatic, 
however, and the PSP could find allies among other parties 
represented on the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE).  The TSE 
will deliberate on the issue 35-45 days after the election, 
when results become official.  To re-constitute a 
de-certified party under a new name requires the collection 
of 85,000 signatures. 
 
3.  (SBU) A well-run election should help regenerate faith in 
the democratic process, and encourage the opposition to 
channel its anti-government energies into competing in the 
2006 presidential and congressional elections.  We believe it 
is in the U.S. interest to promote this result.  Conversely a 
badly run election or even a bad PSP loss might embolden the 
President's political enemies to step up ongoing challenges 
to this government's legitimacy. 
 
4.  (SBU) Beyond their national implications, these local 
elections should help strengthen Ecuadorian democracy.  A 
recent USAID-commissioned survey showed that among eight 
Latin American countries surveyed, citizens of Ecuador had 
the highest level of trust in local governments, and one of 
the lowest levels of trust in national institutions.   The 
study also showed a direct link between trust for local 
governments and support for democracy. 
 
Embassy Participation in OAS Mission 
------------------------------------ 
 
5.  (SBU) We will contribute 37 volunteers from the Embassy 
and CG Guayaquil to the OAS observation effort.  Seven teams 
of two volunteers will deploy outside of Quito/Pichincha and 
Guayaquil/Guayas, to observe the elections in Babahoyo, 
Machala, Cuenca, Tena, Manta, Esmeraldas and Otavalo.  Three 
teams of will participate in an OAS quick count in Quito. 
Two teams with a total of five volunteers will cover 
Guayaquil. 
 
How to Reach Us on Election Day 
------------------------------- 
 
6.  (U) The polls will be open from 0700 to 1700 on election 
day; it will take officials several hours to count and report 
election results.  On October 17, the Embassy will maintain 
an election coordination center to field calls from Embassy 
observers and maintain contact with the OAS, TSE and 
electoral watchdog NGO Citizens Participation.  We will 
report any significant developments to the Department's 
Operations Center on October 17, and will report final 
results by cable on October 18. 
 
7.  (U) The Embassy election coordination center can be 
reached at: 
(593) (2) 256-2890 ext. 4471 or 3471 
(593) (2) 254-0502 
(593) (9) 984-2841  (PolChief Erik Hall cell) 
 
Suggested Press Guidance 
------------------------ 
 
8.  (U) Assuming the elections take place without incident or 
serious challenge, we suggest the Department respond to any 
queries with the following guidance:  "Ecuador recently 
celebrated 25 years of democracy.  We congratulate the 
Ecuadorian people on continuing Ecuador's democratic 
tradition with free, fair, and transparent elections." 
 
Latest Electoral Developments 
----------------------------- 
 
9.  (U) Proportional Representation:  On October 12, small 
parties in Congress failed in a sixth and probably final 
attempt to legislate a system to allocate council seats among 
parties.  The vote in favor of debate on the issue was just 
three short of a simple majority.  Interestingly, two 
Congress members whose parties were in favor, from the PRIAN 
and PRE, were absent for the vote.  As a result, the system 
chosen earlier by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, known as 
the "Imperial" or "Webster" system, will remain in effect. 
This system provides for proportional representation but is 
less favorable to the small parties than the "d'Hont" system 
struck down as unconstitutional by the Constitutional Court. 
While a post-electoral legal challenge to the TSE's selected 
system is likely, most observers expect the Constitutional 
Court to support the TSE. 
 
10.  (U) Electoral Watchdog Upbeat but Alert:  Citizens 
Participation director Cesar Montufar told PolChief on 
October 13 that his objections to the TSE decision were 
procedural in nature.  Although the constitution makes it 
clear that Congress, not the TSE, should have resolved the 
issue, Montufar believes the courts will reject any 
post-electoral challenges from small party candidates. 
Montufar downplayed his public statements warning that this 
issue could undermine the credibility of the elections, and 
said he expected the elections to proceed smoothly overall. 
He expressed greatest concern about the possibility for 
irregularities after the voting booths close and report their 
results to provincial electoral tribunals.  His concern is 
that in some provinces (Guayas, Esmeraldas) the provincial 
tribunals might annul significant numbers of results on 
questionable (and partisan) grounds.  These deliberations 
will take place outside the electoral observation process, 
and could take weeks to play out behind closed doors, he 
said.  For its part, Citizens Participation plans several 
press conferences on election day to report on qualitative 
aspects of the process, and will conduct a quick count for 
the mayor's races in Quito, Guayaquil, and Cuenca.  Results 
could be released late on election night or on October 18. 
 
11.  (U) Electoral Violence:  A candidate for provincial 
council in El Oro province for the PRIAN party was shot and 
killed on October 8 in Guayaquil.  Press reported that Jhon 
Lamota was shot during an attempted car-jacking.  A PRIAN 
party spokesman called for a full investigation of the crime 
and denounced a pattern of violence against party members and 
workers, including the murders of two other PRIAN party 
members (in Esmeraldas and El Oro provinces) on September 11, 
and violence against another in Guayas province on August 17 
and September 25. 
 
12.  (U) AID Candidate Fora Great Success:  On October 12, 
Citizens Participation and other civil society groups 
completed a series of over 50 fora for citizens to meet with 
candidates to hear about their technical and financial 
proposals.  The fora were successful at better informing 
voters, especially young voters, by raising public awareness 
about the candidates' platforms and encouraging civil debate 
among candidates. 
 
13. (U) Campaign Spending:  The 45-day election campaign 
formally ends on October 14, when campaign activity must 
cease.  According to Citizens Participation, as of October 
13, two of the four mayoral candidates for Quito have 
exceeded legal spending limits and incumbent mayor Paco 
Moncayo is very close to doing the same.  Traditionally, 
violators of campaign spending limits are required to pay a 
fine after the elections.  Meanwhile, incumbent mayor of 
Guayaquil Jaime Nebot has publicly called on the Comptroller 
General investigate the private firm "Interview," contracted 
by the Electoral Tribunal to monitor campaign spending. 
Citizens Participation has also asked the TSE to make public 
the data gathered by Interview. 
KENNEY