US embassy cable - 04QUITO2739

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 002739 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSISTIVE 
 
E.O. 12985: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, EC 
SUBJECT: POLITICAL LANDSCAPE CHANGING IN ESMERALDAS 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  A pre-election visit to Esmeraldas 
province suggests that incumbent Esmeraldas Mayor Ernesto 
Estupinan's rise in political popularity has triggered 
initial changes to the political landscape in this coastal 
border region.  Estupinan, a member of the leftist Popular 
Democratic Movement (MPD), has all but assured his re- 
election after successful initiatives reinforcing basic 
public services in the provincial capital of Esmeraldas. 
More importantly, these efforts have exposed the past 
failings of the traditionally dominant Partido Roldosista 
Ecuatoriano (PRE), in turn undermining the re-election 
efforts of PRE provincial prefect Homero Lopez and eroding 
the PRE's regional support.  END SUMMARY. 
 
BACKGROUND INFORMATION 
---------------------- 
 
2. (U) On October 7 and 8, PolOff and ConOff met with local 
election officials, party officials, independent electoral 
observers, and business leaders in the cities of Esmeraldas 
and Atacames, in coastal Esmeraldas province, which borders 
on Colombia.  Voters in Esmeraldas' 7 municipalities will 
visit 950 voting stations on October 17 to select a 
provincial prefect (US governor-equivalent), 7 mayors, 4 
provincial councilors, and 31 municipal councilors.  While 
Esmeraldas' 263,933 voters represent just over 3% of the 
national total, the region's political history is 
intriguing.   It is the base of former Ecuadorian President 
Abdala Bucaram of the PRE, who fled to Panama in 1997 after 
Congress declared him "mentally unfit" for office. 
 
3. (U) Poverty and illiteracy characterize the coastal 
province of Esmeraldas, which lies on the Colombian border 
and whose population is over 70% Afro-Ecuadorian. Voter 
participation has historically hovered around 70% and 
localized fraud and violence are not uncommon.  The coast- 
based PRE traditionally has shared political power in the 
province with the Social Christian Party (PSC) and the 
National Action Institutional Renewal Party (PRIAN). 
However, growing public perceptions of instability along the 
Colombian border, public concern regarding the recent 
closing of dozens of schools in the region, and the ongoing 
widespread belief that past elected officials have stolen 
millions of dollars of public funds opened the door for new 
political leadership. 
 
ELECTORAL PREPARATIONS 
---------------------- 
 
4. (SBU) Meetings with election officials and independent 
electoral observers suggest that arrangements for the 
elections are proceeding relatively smoothly.  Roy Torres 
Estacio, President of the provincial office of the Supreme 
Election Tribunal (TSE), said scheduled training sessions 
for voting station officials were proceeding apace.  He also 
noted that none of the new electronic voting booths used as 
part of a pilot project will be located in Esmeraldas 
province, easing the preparation process.  Piedad Ortiz, 
regional coordinator for the NGO Citizen's Participation, 
noted that nearly all of her 41 observers were trained and 
ready for Election Day independent monitoring activities. 
Also the OAS will send a team to monitor the elections. 
 
5. (SBU) With respect to potential problem areas, both 
Estacio and Ortiz claimed that any irregularities would 
probably occur at the local level and include violations 
associated with improper advertising near voting stations 
and isolated incidences of incorrect voting procedures.  To 
prevent inadvertent voting irregularities, Citizen's 
Participation has a new voter information program in 
conjunction with eight other international and national 
organizations.  As elsewhere, Ortiz, Estacio, and all party 
officials interviewed reinforced the belief that election- 
spending limits were ludicrously low.  For example, the 
spending limit for candidates in the race for Mayor and 
Provincial Council member is $8,000, while the limits for 
the municipal council races range from $2 to $133 per 
candidate.  Party officials tacitly acknowledged that their 
candidates were overspending. 
 
SHIFTING POLITICAL LANDSCAPE 
---------------------------- 
 
6. (SBU) While the PRE has historically garnered much of the 
country's support in past elections, most of the attention 
in this year's campaign was focused on the accomplishments 
of Estupinan and the positive prospects of the MPD.  Even 
PRE supporters agree that Estupinan, the first Afro- 
Ecuadorian elected as mayor of the provincial capital, has 
transformed Esmeraldas from a trash-infested and decrepit 
city to a clean, and more importantly, well-functioning 
port.  The president of the province's chamber of tourism 
and other business leaders, including former PSC congressman 
Carlos Saud, report that Estupinan's efforts have generated 
sustainable business opportunities.  Polls show Estupinan 
leading his PRE rival Carlos Canizares, with 41% to 15% 
respectively.  Even PRE's own internal polls, provided by 
acting prefect Cesar Pimentel of the PRE, revealed an 8% 
lead for Estupinan. 
 
7. (SBU) Meanwhile, the race for provincial prefect (US- 
governor-equivalent) between MPD candidate Lucia Sosa and 
current prefect Homero Lopez is too close to call.  Lenora 
Neira, an official with the TSE, candidly noted that without 
the recent MPD rise associated with Estupinan, Sosa would 
otherwise have had no chance against an incumbent PRE 
candidate.  The turnout at two political rallies observed by 
ConOff and PolOff - supporters for the MPD rally numbered 
more than 400 while those of the PRE numbered around 100 - 
suggested that the MPD has greater popular support or 
organization capacity.  PolOff and ConOff spoke informally 
with local from various socioeconomic classes who reinforced 
this perception. 
 
8. (SBU) Party officials, election officials, and 
independent election observers all noted that Estupinan's 
Afro-Ecuadorian roots reflect an important shift for that 
population's interest in the political process.  While it 
may not trigger an increase in the absolute number of Afro- 
Ecuadorians actually voting, they believe that the MPD's 
successes and Estupinan's presence will make this population 
take greater ownership in party activities and raise issues 
that are of concern to the poorer regions of the province. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
9. (SBU) It was heartening to note Estupinan's popular 
appearance is based on a solid record of accomplishment. 
However, while the general perception was of a political 
shift away from the PRE and toward the MPD, seasoned 
political officials observed that Estupinan's support is 
based on his personal qualities and record of 
accomplishment, rather an ideological following for his 
party.  That support could have a coattail effect which 
changes the political balance in Esmeraldas, at least in the 
short run. 
 
KENNEY