US embassy cable - 04KUWAIT3544

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 KUWAIT 003544 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
 
STATE FOR NEA/ARP 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, PGOV, KWMN, IZ, KU 
SUBJECT: AL-SABAH INSIDER SAYS U.S. DOESN'T VALUE KUWAIT; 
SHARES CONCERNS ON IRAQ, TERRORISM, AND WOMEN'S RIGHTS 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Richard LeBaron for reason 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1. (S/NF) Summary: In early fall 2004, PolOff met several 
times with a senior Shaykh from the Al-Sabah ruling family 
who works in the Prime Minister's office and has daily 
interaction with Prime Minister Shaykh Sabah Al-Ahmad.  The 
interlocutor, who is in his forties and has a prominent 
lineage, conveyed a repeated theme in these candid 
"off-the-record" discussions that Kuwait does not feel its 
friendship toward the U.S. is adequately reciprocated.  He 
noted that the growing threat in Iraq is from Iranians, 
believes civil war there is inevitable, and urged the U.S. to 
be more aggressive against insurgents in Iraq.  He intimated 
that the GOK is pursuing release of the Kuwaiti Guantanamo 
detainees only for public consumption and recommended the 
U.S. raise officially the issue of controversial Kuwaiti 
Islamist youth camps because it is too sensitive for the GOK 
to deal with directly.  He discussed the ruling family's 
perspective on Kuwait succession and mentioned that Prime 
Minister Shaykh Sabah intends to visit the U.S. after the 
Presidential election to congratulate the winner.   End 
Summary. 
 
Feeling Left Out 
---------------- 
 
2. (S) Over several candid discussions with a ruling family 
member on the staff of the Prime Minister, PolOff heard frank 
views that, while clearly meant to influence USG thinking, 
also likely reflect opinions of the Prime Minister and other 
GOK decisionmakers.  An oft-repeated theme is that it appears 
to the Prime Minister that the U.S. doesn't appreciate 
Kuwait.  The interlocutor urged the U.S. not to forget about 
Kuwait's efforts and sacrifices to build stability in Iraq. 
He emphasized that Kuwait was an excellent partner to the 
U.S. and that the U.S. did not appear to be sufficiently 
grateful.  He said that the Prime Minister considers the MNNA 
status, recently conferred on Kuwait, to mean very little 
because the U.S. already gave the same status to certain 
other countries which have not done nearly as much as Kuwait. 
 He further opined that he hopes the U.S. does not view 
Kuwait the same way it does some other MNNA countries, 
implying that several of the MNNA countries were not highly 
regarded by the U.S. as allies. 
 
3. (C) The Shaykh also expressed to PolOff his frustration 
that so many U.S. Government visitors come through Kuwait, 
enroute to Iraq, and do not meet with Kuwaitis.  He further 
complained that when U.S. officials do request meetings, they 
are often last minute requests, where U.S. officials arrive 
during the Kuwaiti weekend (Thurs/Fri) and ask for meetings 
on Friday afternoon.  This, according to the interlocutor, 
convinces him that Kuwait is not appreciated.  He reiterated 
that Washington must understand it has a great friend in 
Kuwait but that it must be careful not to lose its friends. 
 
Iraq: Civil War Looms and Elections Will Fail 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) He opined that Iraq would enter a period of civil war 
and that there was no way to stop the escalating sectarian 
violence.  Calling himself an "optimist" he said "let them 
have their civil war and hopefully in five years or so things 
will settle down."  He did not think that a civil war would 
spread across the borders into Kuwait. 
 
5. (C) On the Shia threat in Iraq, he believes that the U.S. 
should have removed or killed Moqtada Al-Sadr quickly and not 
let him gain the following that he did.  He opined that the 
Iraqi people would respect the U.S. more if greater force 
were used against these types of threats.  He repeatedly told 
PolOff that the Iranians are crossing the border into Iraq in 
great numbers to cause trouble and to affect the upcoming 
elections.  He further remarked that the U.S. should delay 
the Iraqi elections until there is stability.  He is 
convinced that the elections, should they take place in 
January, will be a failure.  Characterizing the elections as 
the USG's "one chance," he argued that once this effort at 
democracy fails, the U.S. will lose its credibility as a 
promoter of democracy in the region. (Note: These remarks 
came well before the recent elections in Afghanistan. End 
Note.) 
 
Islamist Youth Camps: Junior Jihadis Not Arts and Crafts 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
6. (S/NF) The Shaykh explained that Islamists sponsor spring 
camps in the desert and summer indoor clubs as a prime source 
of recruiting youths for various Islamist causes.  (Comment: 
Islamists advertise in the spring and summer for young 
Kuwaitis to go to "summer camps."  These camps are believed 
to serve as, at the very least, a source of superficial 
indoctrination into an intolerant religious worldview and at 
worst, a fertile recruiting ground for violent jihadis.  A 
September 11, 2004 Washington Post article noted that Khalid 
Sheik Mohammed confessed that "he was drawn to violent jihad 
after joining the Brotherhood in Kuwait at age 16 and 
attending its desert youth camps." End Comment.)  The Shaykh 
said that the GOK, which regulates almost every educational 
forum, does not regulate the camps or even monitor them.  He 
said this issue is too sensitive for the GOK to address for 
fear of being accused by Islamists of regulating the teaching 
of the Qur'an.  He advised PolOff to take the issue up with 
the MOI and recommended that the U.S. "rock the boat" on the 
issue because it is a serious one that the GOK is politically 
unable to address. 
 
7. (C) Further on the Islamists, he mentioned that Abdallah 
Al-Mutawa and Hamad Al-Ali play a big role in the 
organization of the summer camps and that Hamad, despite 
being the "former" Secretary General of the Scientific 
Salafis (aka Salafi Movement) is still something of a thinker 
for the organization. (Note: Abdallah Al-Ali Al-Mutawa is 
known to have provided large donations to charities in 
Pakistan, Afghanistan and Russia during the past two decades. 
 A close relative of Mutawa's recently confided to Poloff 
that he estimates these donations totaled over $90 million 
during this period.  End Note.) 
 
Ruling Family Succession 
------------------------ 
 
8. (C) Speaking as a member of the Al-Sabah family, he 
informed PolOff that the widely held expectation of how 
succession of the Amir and Crown Prince may play out is not 
set in stone.  While Prime Minister Shaykh Sabah is 
considered by all to be the second in line behind Crown 
Prince Saad to become Amir, PolOff was informed that if 
something should happen to the Prime Minister, it is assumed 
that Shaykh Nawaf Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, the first 
deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister would become 
Amir.  (Note: The very ill Crown Prince Saad is not 
considered a viable candidate for the position of the Amir. 
End Note.)  Behind Nawaf is Shaykh Mishaal Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber 
Al-Sabah, the current Deputy Chairman of Kuwait's National 
Guard.  He spoke as though this order of precedence was a 
well-established public fact.  (Comment:  Traditionally, of 
the top two Kuwaitis, one is from the Jaber Branch and the 
other is from the Salem branch.  Given the current domination 
of most Ministries by the Jaber branch, it might not be 
surprising to see such a move.  Both top spots were occupied 
by the Salem branch when Amir Abdullah Al-Salem Al-Sabah and 
Crown Prince Sabah Al-Salem Al-Sabah ruled together from 
1963-1965. End Comment.) The Shaykh, however, dispelled this 
"balance-of-the-branches" theory as a coincidence and 
appeared to truly believe that it is not a factor in 
succession. 
 
9. (C) The Shaykh relayed that Crown Prince Shaykh Saad 
Al-Sabah was in increasingly poor health.  He told PolOff 
that he met with the Crown Prince in August and that Saad did 
not even acknowledge him when the Shaykh tried to speak to 
him.  He said that Saad had some form of colon disease in 
2001 and this led to severe hemorrhaging resulting in massive 
blood loss.  He informed PolOff that this blood loss led to 
brain damage.  He reminded PolOff that the Amir continues to 
struggle with Parkinson's disease but that PM Shaykh Sabah, 
despite having a pacemaker, is in relatively good health. 
 
If Women Vote... It Will Be for the Islamists 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
10. (C) Although he personally supports women's political 
rights, the Shaykh commented that it would be bad for Kuwait. 
 He believes that should women be permitted to vote in 
general elections, the Islamists would benefit the most, thus 
putting even more Islamists into Parliament and pushing the 
society further towards religious conservatism.  (Note: It is 
widely assumed, even among some proponents of women's 
suffrage, that the wives--in some cases multiple wives--of 
Islamists would be ordered by their husbands to cast their 
vote for the candidate he chooses, therefore increasing 
Islamist voter participation and the likelihood of Islamist 
candidates being elected.  Post agrees that this is a 
possible short-term consideration should Kuwaiti women gain 
the right to vote. End Note.) He is convinced the measure 
will fail should it come to a vote in the National Assembly. 
He commented that he knows few Kuwaiti women who actually 
want the right to vote or want to run in general elections 
for a seat in Parliament.  (Note: Post, on the other hand, 
has several female activist contacts, who have openly 
declared their intention to run for office. End Note.) 
 
Release of Gitmo Detainees Not a Serious Concern 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
11. (S/NF) The Shaykh told PolOff "off the record," that the 
Prime Minister doesn't really want any of the Guantanamo 
detainees back.  Despite the public calls for a return of the 
detainees, he opined that this was being done only to appease 
the media.  He also informed PolOff that the Prime Minister 
is planning a trip to the U.S. in January to congratulate the 
winner of the U.S. presidential election.  In the near term, 
the Prime Minister is planning to travel to Europe, including 
Paris and London.  He mentioned that the Prime Minister has 
no intention of traveling to Baghdad anytime soon. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
12. (C) The Shaykh is well-educated, Westernized, and 
pragmatic.  Because of his position and daily interaction 
with the PM, he does have a measure of influence with PM 
Shaykh Sabah and insight into the PM's views.  Throughout the 
conversations, it was unclear where the PM's opinion ended 
and this Shaykh's began.  That said, what was made clear is 
the perception of a growing frustration from senior GOK 
officials with the way the U.S. appears to be treating 
Kuwait.  Although Kuwait remains supportive of U.S. efforts 
in the region, the Shaykh relayed his opinion that the U.S. 
is not working with the Kuwaitis but at times appears to be 
dictating Washington's demands with an expectation of 
compliance.  Of all his messages this was the most often 
repeated. 
 
********************************************* 
Visit Embassy Kuwait's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/ 
 
You can also access this site through the 
State Department's Classified SIPRNET website 
********************************************* 
LeBaron