US embassy cable - 04BRUSSELS4376

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 004376 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/06/2014 
TAGS: PREL, MASS, ETTC, PHUM, CH, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: EU/CHINA ARMS: DAS SUCHAN VISIT LAUNCHES PUBLIC 
DEBATE 
 
REF: SUCHAN E-MAIL 10/7/04 
 
Classified By: POL/MC Kyle Scott.  Reasons: 1.4 (B)(D) 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: PM DAS Greg Suchan's October 7 visit to 
discuss US opposition to lifting the EU arms embargo on China 
included meetings with select PSC Ambassadors, as well as a 
public briefing and press conference/backgrounder which 
resulted in widespread and generally positive coverage in 
European media outlets.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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Meeting Select EU Member States 
------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) PM DAS Greg Suchan discussed US concerns over lifting 
the EU arms embargo on China with a select group EU Political 
and Security Committee (PSC) ambassadors from smaller 
countries that had not been on his recent travels to European 
capitals.  In attendance were PSC Ambassadors from 
Luxembourg, Denmark, Poland and Lithuania, plus the chief 
Asia advisor in HiRep Solana's Policy Unit.  Suchan stressed 
the political, military and human rights aspects of our 
opposition to lifting the arms ban, and said that EU efforts 
to assuage our concerns had been far from sufficient.  EU 
assurances that lifting the ban would have no material 
consequence were hard to believe, he said, because market 
pressures and lobbying by Beijing would make it very hard for 
member state regulators to deny sales to China without the 
political cover of an arms embargo.  Citing the high rate of 
reported military sales to China in recent years under both 
the embargo and/and Code of Conduct (almost 210 million Euros 
in 2002, amounting to 17 license issuances for every one 
denial), Suchan stressed that even a strengthened Code could 
be no substitute for the embargo.  European governments 
should not deceive themselves into thinking they can convince 
the US that it would be okay to lift the embargo, he 
cautioned.  And if a decision to lift is taken, the EU should 
expect a strong reaction from Washington. 
 
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Luxembourg: We Need Mutual Trust 
-------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) Ambassador Paul Duhr of Luxembourg said his government 
hoped the matter would be resolved before the start of its 
Presidency on January 1.  Speaking for the group (and as de 
facto EU lead since the Dutch Ambassador was not present), 
Duhr said there was no intention of selling more arms or 
military technology to China after the embargo is lifted.  US 
concerns are being taken "very seriously," he said, although 
it was also important to recognize China's positive changes 
in recent years.  He said that "a majority of member states 
favor a lift," but that serious arguments against it remain; 
it would take time to iron them out.  He understood that we 
were still not satisfied with EU assurances that lifting the 
ban would have no material impact, but said that we needed to 
proceed "on the basis of mutual trust if transatlantic 
relations are to be respectful."  The US and EU needed to 
"respect each others' autonomy in foreign policy, while 
trusting each other not to endanger their critical 
interests," he said.  He added that the (not yet agreed) 
"Toolbox" addendum to the Code of Conduct was designed to 
reassure the US that no increase in sales to China would 
result from lifting the embargo.  On Suchan's description of 
possible US reactions to lifting the embargo, Duhr cautioned 
that we would lose sympathy in the EU if we are perceived as 
threatening Congressional retaliation.  "They will drop their 
doubts and join the pro-lift camp," he said. 
 
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Denmark and Policy Unit: Human Rights 
------------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) Ambassador Reimer Nielsen of Denmark acknowledged that 
his country was still uneasy about the human rights 
implications of ending the embargo.  China "hasn't delivered 
what we want yet," he said, which makes it difficult to make 
a decision on lifting the embargo.  Council Policy Advisor 
Tomaz Koslowski (himself a former Polish Ambassador to China) 
argued that China's human rights record had improved 
significantly since 1989 and that Beijing's progress should 
be recognized.  China's openness to dialogue is a good sign 
and a major accomplishment, he said.  Kozlowski said it was 
"extremely important to note" that in EU discussions there 
has been "no mention" of increasing arms sales to China.  He 
also underscored that the embargo is vague and not legally 
binding, while the Code of Conduct calls for EU Member States 
not to endanger the interests of friends and allies. 
 
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Poland and Lithuania: Feeling Stuck 
----------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) Polish Ambassador Maciej Popowski added only that the 
EU is a "community of rules" and that Member States generally 
respect those rules and are working to tighten them (a 
reference to the effort to strengthen the Code of Conduct). 
Lithuanian Ambassador Arnoldas Milukas said that Vilnius 
favored revising the Code of Conduct to be as legally binding 
as possible.  He expressed serious concern about the 
political implications of lifting the embargo, and said that 
Lithuania was "very concerned for transatlantic relations." 
 
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PD Events Result in Widespread Coverage 
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6. (SBU) The main purpose of Suchan's visit was an 
on-the-record briefing on October 7 at the Center for 
European Policy Studies (CEPS) in Brussels.  Sharing the dais 
were Amnesty International's EU Director Dick Oosting and 
USEU Defense Policy Advisor Col. Mike Ryan.  The briefing was 
followed by a press conference at CEPS and follow-on 
exclusives for Reuters and Wall Street Journal Europe. 
During the press events, DAS Suchan outlined points similar 
to those in para 2.  The two CEPS events were attended by 
most major wire services and several dailies -- including two 
Chinese newspapers -- and resulted in positive and 
widespread, often front page, coverage during the October 8-9 
news cycle.  USEU Political Minister-Counselor followed up 
with an interview for BBC World Service on October 8. 
 
7. (U) DAS Suchan has cleared this message. 
 
McKinley