US embassy cable - 04THEHAGUE2605

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 002605 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PHUM, MARR, ETTC, CH, NL, EU 
SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/EU/CHINA: EU "CAUTIOUS" ON LIFTING 
CHINA ARMS EMBARGO 
 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR CLIFFORD SOBEL FOR REASONS 1.4(B) AND (D). 
 
1. (C)  Summary:  According to Dutch FM Bot, the EU is moving 
"cautiously" with regard to the issue of lifting the China 
arms embargo.  Although there is no strong opposition to 
lifting the embargo, several members feel more time is needed 
before making that decision.  Bot would prefer not to have 
the embargo lifted during the Dutch presidency, but won't 
break consensus.  An internal Dutch report of the ministers' 
meeting notes that supporters of a quick lift (France and 
Spain) have so far failed to make their case.  It is possible 
that the EU-China summit currently scheduled for December 8 
will be postponed, but the reasons are unclear.  End Summary. 
 
 
BOT:  EU MOVING CAUTIOUSLY 
-------------------------- 
 
2. (C) On October 12, Dutch Foreign Minister Bot provided 
Ambassador Sobel with a brief readout of the EU Foreign 
Ministers' lunch-time discussion of the China Arms Embargo 
during the October 11 GAERC in Luxembourg.  According to Bot, 
"no one" in the EU doubts that the embargo will be lifted in 
time; it is only a question of "when."  When the issue was 
raised at the lunch by French Minister-Delegate Cloudie 
Haignere, Bot said, there were no strong statements of 
opposition to lifting the embargo at some point in the 
future, and he had to conclude that overall tendency toward 
lifting the embargo was "positive."  Bot reportedly also 
concluded, however, that more work remained to be done to 
strengthen the Code of Conduct and the "Toolbox" before the 
EU would be prepared to lift the embargo. 
 
3. (C) Bot confirmed that while the French and Spanish pushed 
to lift the embargo by the EU-China summit, others -- 
including Denmark, Sweden, Poland, Czech Republic, Italy, and 
the UK -- preferred to take a more cautious, go-slow 
approach.  Bot reiterated that "if I had my way, it would not 
happen," but stressed that the Netherlands would not stand 
alone as president to break a consensus to lift.  Bot made 
clear that he and British FM Straw are coordinating closely 
on how to handle the issue, although he told Ambassador Sobel 
that he worried that Straw's opposition to lifting the 
embargo may be "shifting."  (Note:  British Ambassador Colin 
Budd separately told Ambassador Sobel that Straw's position 
on the embargo has not changed, citing his statements at the 
December 2003 European Council meeting.  Budd also reported 
that at the GAERC, some of the strongest arguments for going 
slowly were made by German Foreign Minister Fischer, who 
argued that the "prestige of our main ally (the U.S.)" should 
be seriously considered, and Commissioner Chris Patten, who 
suggested that the EU needed to "pause for thought" before 
moving forward.) 
 
3. (C) With regard to human rights, Bot suggested that the EU 
had decided to downplay in public the connection between the 
embargo and the human rights situation in China.  In private, 
however, the EU has suggested several specific steps the 
Chinese should take on the human rights front (freeing the 
remaining Tiananmen prisoners, for example).  According to 
Karel Hartogh, FM Bot's private secretary, Bot made clear 
during the EU-Chinese ministerial in Hanoi that if China 
needed "more time" to deal with human rights concerns, then 
it should understand if the EU needed "more time" to feel 
comfortable lifting the embargo. 
 
DUTCH BELIEVE MORE WORK TO BE DONE 
------------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) In a separate discussion with poloff, Paul van den 
IJssel (Director for Arms Transfers in the MFA's Security 
Department), shared elements of the internal Dutch report on 
the meeting.  According to van den IJssel, the Dutch 
concluded: 1) a "clear majority" needs more time before 
making a decision to lift; 2) more work remains to be done on 
the Code of Conduct and "Toolbox," 3) there is still a need 
for positive steps on human rights from the Chinese, and 4) 
the supporters of a quick lift have not yet succeeded. 
 
SUMMIT POSTPONED? 
---------------- 
 
5. (C) Herman Schaper, Dutch Deputy POLDIR, and Hartogh 
separately told us that the Chinese Ambassador to the 
Netherlands recently asked the MFA to consider alternative 
dates for the EU-China summit currently scheduled for 
December 8.  While the Dutch have pushed back hard to hold 
the summit on December 8 as planned, they are quietly looking 
at other dates, including as late as December 21 (after the 
December 17 EU Council meeting).  While no explicit link had 
been made to the arms embargo by the Chinese side, some in 
the MFA saw the request as a possible veiled threat. 
(Schaper told DCM on October 12 that while a majority of EU 
members agree that the embargo decision should not be linked 
directly to the summit, a majority also appear sympathetic to 
the idea of using the summit to "hint" that a decision is not 
far off.)  Hartogh, however, suggested that Beijing may want 
to avoid holding the summit too close to elections to the 
Taiwanese legislative Yuan (currently scheduled for December 
11).  Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister Zhang Yesui is 
scheduled to visit The Hague on October 14 and presumably 
will discuss preparations for the summit. 
SOBEL