US embassy cable - 04LAGOS2069

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 002069 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR INR, AF/W, AND DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/09/2014 
TAGS: KDEM, NI, PGOV, PINR 
SUBJECT: NIGERIAN OPPOSITION PARTY TRIES TO REGAIN 
RELEVANCE, BUT HOUSE-CLEANING REMAINS 
 
REF: LAGOS 1849 
 
Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne per 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
This cable has been cleared by Embassy Abuja. 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: The crisis-ridden, Yoruba dominated Alliance 
for Democracy (AD) party selected former Osun State governor 
Bisi Akande as its new national chairman in a September 29 
Lagos convention.  Party faithful hoped the convention would 
reconcile rival factions, putting an end to an embarrassing 
public tussle over the party chairmanship.  However, leaders 
of the Yoruba socio-political group, Afenifere (AD's 
political progenitors), denounced the convention, announcing 
it was severing all ties with the party.  The Lagos State 
governor, Ahmed Tinubu, the lone AD governor, reportedly 
considered the convention a pricey necessity in order to 
bring the party back in compliance with Independent National 
Electoral Commission (INEC) regulations.  AD is reportedly 
casting for alliances outside of Yoruba land: courting VP 
Atiku (a close Tinubu friend) to join the party, should 
President Obasanjo not support him in his 2007 bid for the 
PDP nomination, as well as cozying up to aggrieved Delta 
groups.  However, AD still has a lot of internal 
house-cleaning before it can form effective partnerships. 
END SUMMARY 
 
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Background 
---------- 
 
2. (U) Once a significant player on the Nigerian political 
scene, AD lost five of the six southwestern gubernatorial 
seats in the flawed 2003 elections, emerging with only the 
Lagos State governorship. The party was further weakened by a 
power struggle between rival national chairmanship aspirants, 
Mojisola Akinfenwa and Bisi Akande, for the post of national 
chairman, which culminated in two separate conventions being 
held late 2003.  The Independent National Electoral 
Commission (INEC) voided both conventions and gave the party 
an October 31, 2004 deadline to resolve its internal crisis 
or organize yet another new convention.  INEC threatened 
deregistration if the party failed to take either of these 
measures. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
Internal AD Disputes Give PDP an "Easy Ride" 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
3. (SBU) Sola Iji, Ondo State chairman for the AD party met 
Polchief, Poloff, and Polspecialist on the eve of the 
September 29 convention.  Iji said the public rift between 
Akinfenwa and Akande had damaged the party's ability to 
retain and attract members and to be a voice in national 
politics.  AD party members are supporting other parties' 
presidential hopefuls, merely because they want to be on a 
winning team, Iji claimed.  He commented that with AD 
consumed by internal crises, the governing People's 
Democratic Party (PDP) was having "an easy ride." Iji said 
his state was neutral as to who emerged as the new national 
chairman.  The important thing was for the party to be 
reconciled and to return to compliance with INEC regulations. 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
Afenifere Elders Stuck in Ethnic-Based Politics 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
4. (SBU) Iji complained Afenifere, the pan-Yoruba 
socio-political group that authored AD, continued to hobble 
the party's efforts to expand its support base.  Afenifere, 
he said, wanted to keep an iron grip on the party and pick 
its leaders.  This alienated both younger and non-Yoruba 
party members.  Iji remarked that the antagonists in the 
current crisis - Papa Adesanya, leader of Afenifere, 
Akinfenwa, and Adanke - are all septuagenarians.  It's time 
to make room for new leadership, he concluded, vowing that 
that AD would do so, "with or without Afenifere." 
 
----------------------------------------- 
Lagos Governor's Office Has Eye on 2007; 
Seeks Alliance with VP Atiku 
---------------------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) Folorunsho Folarin-Coker, Deputy Chief of Staff to 
Lagos State Governor Ahmed Tinubu, told Polchief in a 
separate October 4 meeting that the governor viewed the 
convention as a "colossal waste of money."  Nevertheless, it 
was necessary in order to bring the party back into INEC 
compliance.  Folarin-Coker alleged the PDP was "pulling the 
strings" behind Afenifere in order to foment dissent within 
the party.  The new convention, he said, would therefore 
yield no positive results, since PDP/Afenifere machinations 
would undoubtedly continue.  Folarin-Coker also accused INEC 
of contributing to the AD crisis, saying, "the only thing 
independent about the commission is the "I" in its name." 
 
6.  (C) Asked how the party planned to extract itself from 
the crisis, Folarin-Coker replied, "money."  "These 
conventions are meaningless.  With money, we will regain our 
ward, legislative, and gubernatorial seats."  Folarin-Coker 
said VP Atiku could provide the funds needed to restore party 
relevance, and in return AD could provide him a vehicle to 
run for the presidency, should he fail to win the PDP ticket. 
 He maintained that Lagos Governor Tinubu and VP Atiku were 
"very close" and were actively discussing strategic 
partnership, should President Obasanjo fail to endorse Atiku 
in 2007. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
Or We Can Ally With the Delta Groups 
-------------------------------------- 
 
7.  (C)  Folarin-Coker averred that the governor's office and 
the AD party are also engaged in active discussions with 
aggrieved minority Delta groups.  Pressed for how a largely 
South-West Yoruba party planned to attract these disparate 
groups, Folarin-Coker acknowledged the lack of "perfect 
ideological congruence."  However, he insisted that as 
elections approached these groups might find the AD the "best 
suitable bedfellow." 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
Convention Atmospherics -- Music, Dance, and More Music; 
Akande Wins while Afenifere Pouts 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
8.  (U) PolSpecialist reported the convention had a festive 
atmosphere, as traditional musicians and singers ushered 
attendees into the stadium and delegates and guests sang and 
danced for hours.  Prominent party members including former 
AD governors and legislators attended the event, as did 
representatives from several other political parties.  The 
most important attendee, however, was the Independent 
National Electoral Commission (INEC), whose presence was seen 
as giving the stamp of approval to what party adherents hope 
will be the final, conclusive national convention. 
 
9.  (U) Approximately 4000 delegates voted to choose the 
party's national executives with former Osun State Governor 
Bisi Akande emerging as the party's new chairman. Leaders of 
the Akinfenwa faction did not attend the convention. 
Immediately after the convention, Afenifere leaders denounced 
the affair and reaffirmed their support for Akinfenwa as the 
party's "authentic leader."  On October 5, Afenifere declared 
it was severing all ties with the party. (Comment:  We may 
not have seen the last of the tattered Afenifere-AD alliance. 
 Afenifere leader Adesanya is reportedly trying to sidle up 
to new AD chair Akande in hopes of keeping his relevance. 
End Comment.) 
 
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Comment 
------- 
 
10. (C) This convention was stricken with the flaws of the 
prior two disputed conventions.  The roster of delegates made 
the outcome pre-ordained.  That many Afenifere leaders and 
Akinfenwa partisans boycotted the meeting is no big surprise. 
 Few people are keen on attending an event at which their own 
public political demise is an integral part of the 
proceedings.  That Afenifere is now publicly estranged from 
the AD demonstrates how far Afenifere has fallen in recent 
times.  If it sold stock, one could buy Afenifere shares at 
distress values.  The split also shows that the AD leadership 
is now independent of Afenifere and feels confident enough in 
its strength or in Afenifere's weakness to absorb the 
latter's wrath.  The convention may have tapped Akande as the 
new AD chairman, but it confirmed Lagos Governor Tinubu as 
the real leader of the AD. 
 
11. (C) Tinubu is a close political ally of VP Atiku, and 
there has never been much love lost between Tinubu and 
President Obasanjo.  Tinubu will continue to people the AD 
leadership with people that look like him.  He will also try 
to keep his opponents in Afenifere on their haunches by 
fomenting division within that group.  In this vein he called 
an Afenifere meeting on October 5 in which Senator Ayo 
Fasanmi was appointed Afenifere deputy chairman.  Meanwhile, 
Presindent Obasanjo and his cronies want to control the 
Southwest.  They will continue to use Afenifere and disunity 
in the AD to weaken the party.  The notion is plausible that 
VP Atiku may see the AD as an insurance policy should his bid 
in the PDP be unsuccessful.  However, we think Atiku would be 
reticent to fund the AD knowing that such a move, if 
uncovered, would sink him in the PDP. 
 
12. (C) With the withdrawal of Afenifere and possibly the 
Akinfenwa group, the AD may emerge from the convention as a 
less divided party.  But it is also a smaller one, shorn of 
many of its founders and leading members.  The new 
leadership, not so wedded to pan-Yoruba ideals, may be more 
willing to reach out to other groups.  Ironically, because of 
the political split in Yorubaland, they will have less to 
offer these groups.  In the final analysis, the AD is safe 
only in Lagos State.  It will be hard pressed to gain 
meaningful allies among other groups in Southern Nigeria. 
Its best hope does not lie in what it can do for itself but 
in waiting for internal divisions within the PDP to send 
disgruntled PDP members its way.  Until then, the PDP stands 
as the big winner in this latest Afenifere-AD flap because it 
will likely weaken the AD's appeal in Yorubaland. 
BROWNE