US embassy cable - 04LAGOS2068

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 002068 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
 
STATE FOR AF/W 
STATE FOR EB 
STATE FOR DRL 
STATE PASS DOE FOR DAS JBRODMAN 
STATE PASS TRANSPORTATION MARAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/06/2014 
TAGS: ELAB, PGOV, NI, PHUM, EPET 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: PRELUDE TO POSSIBLE NATIONAL STRIKE 
 
REF: A. LAGOS 1969 
 
     B. LAGOS 2042 
     C. ABUJA 1011 
 
Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne per 1.4 b and d 
 
This is a joint Consulate Lagos - Embassy Abuja Cable 
 
1. (S/NF) Summary: Barring a last-minute breakthrough in 
tense, on again, off again talks between the GON and the 
National Labor Congress (NLC), the stage is set for a 
nationwide "stay-at-home" on Monday, October 11.  All major 
unions have announced their intention to honor the strike 
protesting a recent fuel price hike (ref A). The strike's 
sustainability or the level of violence it may engender is 
unpredictable at this point.  GON security forces have been 
advised to quickly thwart any demonstrations.  Posts held EAC 
meetings on October 6 and 10 and are taking appropriate 
precautionary measures (refs B and C).  In an unrelated event 
that nonetheless adds to the climate of tension, Nigerian 
employees of Royal Dutch Shell began a two-day strike October 
7, protesting company-wide downsizing.  Shell's oil 
production has not been affected.  End Summary. 
 
-------------------------- 
GON - Labor Talks Deadlock 
-------------------------- 
 
2. (U) In an effort to avert the national stay-at-home, the 
Ministry of Labor called a meeting October 6 with 
representatives from the NLC, the Nigerian National Petroleum 
Corporation (NNPC), and the Nigeria Employer's Consultative 
Association (NECA).  Total and other independent oil 
companies also attended.  The talks ended abruptly when NLC 
President Oshimohole objected to what he termed only "low 
level" government representation.  The NLC insisted 
Ministerial level GON representation was needed for 
meaningful negotiations. 
 
3.  (U) In addition to the talks convened by the ministry of 
labor, the federal Senate Committee on Employment Labour and 
Productivity began closed-door negotiations with the NLC, the 
Petroleum Products Pricing Regulatory Agency (PPRA) and the 
NNPC on October 6.  The House of Representatives unanimously 
called on the government to revert to the old fuel price and 
on the NLC to call off the strike until a compromise could be 
reached. 
 
4.  (C) While President Obasanjo is doing everything he can 
(short of compromise) to avert the strike, a source in the 
Presidency says that the pressure on Obasanjo to roll back 
the price inceases is growing among many of his closest 
confidants, both politicians and businessmen.  The source 
speculates that the negative publicity a strike will generate 
for Nigeria and the record price of oil on the international 
market have swayed the opinions of this group of advisors. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
Who's For A Strike?  We All Are, At Least Rhetorically 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
5. (U) All three major labor federations - The Nigeria Labor 
Congress, Trade Union Congress (TUC), and Center for Free 
Trade Unions (CFTU) - have announced their support for the 
strike.  Many civic, student, and professional organizations 
have also publicly endorsed the "stay-at-home" call.  We have 
also heard reports of student groups in some southern areas 
such as Lagos State and Delta State, holding "warm-up" 
strikes.  Some oil service companies in Warri, for example, 
suspended operations on October 6, due to one such pre-strike. 
 
(Comment:  The fuel price hike is universally reviled and 
President Obasanjo's popularity is flagging.  It is thus no 
surprise that so many unions/organizations have announced 
their support for the strike.  However, it remains to be seen 
how long a "stay-at-home" can be sustained.  The fuel price 
controversy has served as a rallying point for many Nigerians 
who are frustrated with the government on  issues not solely 
related to the price hike.) 
 
6.  (U)  In practical terms, we expect most public 
educational institutions to close or have limited operations 
on Monday.  Local contacts say food markets will likely be 
closed during the day, with some opening at night for those 
who "forgot to stock up."  Financial institution contacts are 
expecting staff to report to work, but banks may not fully 
open to the public, due to concern about possible violence. 
The stock exchange expects to trade normally.  The strike's 
impact on manufacturing companies will likely vary by company 
and by geographic location.  Oil companies report they plan 
to operate normally.  (Note: Most of the oil companies are 
located on self-contained compounds and/or are off-shore. 
End Note.) 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
Labor Pulling Out All Stops To Make Sure Strike Holds 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
7. (U) Desperate to ensure the strike's success, the NLC has 
issued detailed "mobilization" instructions to its 36 state 
councils. Several symposiums have been held in the Lagos area 
in the run-up to the strike in order to "sensitize" the 
public.  On October 6, the NLC began distributing T-shirts, 
badges, leaflets, and handbills to communities in the Lagos 
area.  NLC leader Benson Ukpa expressed to Abuja poloffs his 
satisfaction with pre-strike preparations and claimed that 
"all of Nigeria" supported the NLC in this strike. 
 
8. (C) Comment:  The NLC, hurt by Senate approval of a new 
labor bill and a federal court decision that claimed the NLC 
doe not have the authority to call on strike on fuel taxes is 
doing its best to ensure the strike happens. Adherence to the 
stay-at-home is as much a referendum on public support for 
the NLC as it is on the government's decision to raise fuel 
prices. 
 
------------------------------ 
GON Won't Brook Demonstrations 
------------------------------ 
 
9. (S/NF) GON security contacts told Embassy Abuja that the 
security presence in Abuja, Lagos, and other flashpoints 
would be increased in anticipation of the strike.  RMSA 
reports that GON security services have been ordered to 
quickly thwart any violent demonstrations. 
 
10. (C) To forestall flight disruptions at Murtala Muhammed 
International Airport (MMIA) during the protest, aviation 
authorities have put in place several contingency plans. 
According to a Federal Aviation Authority of Nigeria (FAAN) 
official,  Air Force personnel and FAAN security personnel 
will be placed in strategic areas around the airport. 
Authorities have also arranged for the transportation and 
accommodation of air traffic controllers during the 
stay-at-home.  (Comment: We expect international flights to 
continue operations.  Domestic flights are less certai, 
particularly should the strike last longer than a few days. 
End Comment.) 
 
--------------------------------------- 
Preparations - Batten Down The Hatches, 
Stock Up on Money and Food 
--------------------------------------- 
 
11. (U) Bank contacts reported cash withdrawals have 
increased significantly as clients anticipate the need to 
make substantial purchases of food and other supplies over 
the weekend. Many banks said they were considering opening 
over the weekend to meet the extra demand. 
 
12. (C)  As reported refs b and c, the Mission is also taking 
precautionary measures of assuring adequate fuel supply for 
generators and motor vehicles and preparing a warden message 
alerting the non-official community to increase their 
security posture as warranted.  Both American schools will be 
closed on Monday. 
 
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Nigerian Shell Workers Stage Unrelated 
Warning Strike; Oil Production Not Affected 
------------------------------------------- 
 
13.  (SBU)  In an unrelated event, Nigerian employees of 
Royal Dutch/Shell began a two-day "warning strike" October 7, 
protesting long-planned company-wide downsizing.  Shell 
announced in March 2004 it planned to streamline its 
operations in Nigeria.  According to the press, oil union 
workers oppose the offerered severance package and allege 
Shell is skewing jobs in favor of expatriates.  A Shell 
External Relations representative in Port Harcourt confirmed 
that there is no connection between the Shell strike and the 
proposed NLC strike.  He also confirmed that oil production 
has not been affected. 
BROWNE