US embassy cable - 04BRUSSELS4346

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 004346 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/08/2014 
TAGS: PREL, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: EU: PARTING THOUGHTS FROM RELEX COMMISSIONER CHRIS 
PATTEN 
 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Kyle Scott.  Reason: 1.4 (B)(D) 
 
1. (C) Summary. Ambassador held a reflective October 6 
farewell meeting with RELEX Commissioner Patten, whose term 
expires at the end of the month.  Patten called the 
Commission's decision earlier that day to recommend in favor 
of starting accession negotiations with Turkey "the most 
important decision I've been a part of" at the Commission. 
Patten suggested that Atlantic powers "have two decades to 
shape the world" -- after that, economic and demographic 
trends argue in favor of India and China.  Patten doubted 
whether the EU Constitution will ever be ratified, and 
worried about growing French disaffection with the EU that 
could lead Paris to "bring the temple down."   He believes 
incoming Commission President Barosso has several advantages 
over his two immediate predecessors, but said Barosso is 
mistaken in trying run the Commission in presidential style. 
Patten suggested Commissioners Verheugen, Wallstrom, and 
Mandelson bear watching as future Commission heavyweights. 
He worried that the US and EU may split on Iran, and urged 
more visible US activity on the Middle East peace process. 
End summary. 
 
Turkey 
------- 
 
2. (C) Over drinks at the end of a long day, Patten was 
clearly pleased with the decision announced earlier in the 
day to recommend in favor of launching accession negotiations 
with Turkey.  He called it "the most important decision I 
have taken part in during my entire tenure on the 
Commission."  Patten noted that at the beginning of the Prodi 
Commission, only he and Enlargement Commissioner Verheugen 
were in favor of Turkish enlargement.  He stressed that the 
EU has proven very successful at reform, and that Europeans 
will increasingly come to realize the advantages of having 
Turkey inside the EU. 
 
3. (C) In particular, Patten said that Turkish membership 
would make the EU a more serious player in defense, and also 
give it strategic weight in the Caucasus and Central Asia. 
He also pointed to the disturbing demographic trends in 
Europe, and the contribution that Turkey's large population 
could make in this regard.   He predicted that smart 
investors will begin to pour money into Turkey (at times at 
the expense of other newer EU members in Central and Eastern 
Europe).  Patten also expressed the view that the Erdogan/Gul 
duo was the "most impressive" leadership team in all of 
Europe today. 
 
4. (C) Patten thanked the U.S. for its low-key approach to 
Turkish accession over the last few months, and encouraged US 
leaders to keep "piano" as well through the crucial Council 
decision in December. 
 
EU - Amazing, But It Actually Works 
-------------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) Patten expressed his own amazement that EU 
institutions, "pieced together with rubber bands, chewing gum 
and blue tack" actually perform.  He refuted arguments that 
Europe has become sclerotic and unable to compete, but said 
he does have long-term concerns about basic demographic 
factors, and Europe's long-term competitiveness vis-a-vis 
rising powers in China and India.  He suggested the Atlantic 
countries have two decades to shape the world.  Beyond that, 
and he predicted economic and demographic trends favor a rise 
in power for India and China.  He was particularly 
enthusiastic about India's future, noting that -- in contrast 
to China -- India's democratic system means it will not have 
to cope with new political structures as its economy rapidly 
expands. 
 
6. (C) In the meantime, the EU will "continue to lumber along 
-- against all odds."   The EU of today is neither the one 
envisioned by Monet and Schumann, nor the Europe managed by 
Adenauer and De Gaulle in years gone by.   With the most 
recent enlargement, the Franco-German engine can no longer 
drive the Union, Patten said, and he was especially concerned 
that France was getting nervous about its waning influence. 
The lingua franca of the EU is now english, and countries 
appear increasingly willing to stand up to France and tell 
them "no."  Barosso's decision to give France the minor 
Transport portfolio was a major blow, and Patten worried that 
there is a growing feeling in Paris that it might be better 
to "bring the temple down." 
 
7. (C) Patten also predicted that the EU Constitution would 
not be ratified, suggesting that it may fail to gain 
ratification in three or more countries. 
 
The Barosso Commission 
-------------------------- 
 
8. (C) Patten judged the incoming Commission President to be 
a "smart, cautious politician."  He starts his tenure with 
several advantages over his two most recent predecessors, 
Patten suggested.  First, he is extremely articulate in 
several languages.  Secondly, he has been selected without 
any political obligations.  This offered him additional room 
for maneuver, which he had used decisively in forming his 
Commission.  Third, Barosso does not face any European 
leaders who are serious competitors in putting forward a 
vision for the future of Europe.  (On the flip-side, Patten 
noted that there are also no political leaders in Europe who 
are prepared to make difficult decisions to pursue a 
visionary policy.) 
 
9. (C) Still, Patten suggested Barosso was mistaken if he 
believed he could manage the Commission in presidential 
style.  He said Barosso "should have begged" to keep either 
(outgoing Italian Commissioners) Monti or Vitorino, and then 
established a structure with three senior Vice Presidents: 
Monti/Vitorino, Verheugen, and Wallstrom.   As it now stands, 
Patten predicted that Verheugen, Wallstrom, and incoming UK 
Commissioner Mandelson will be the centers of gravity in the 
Commission below Barosso.  He suggested, however, that 
Wallstrom might in fact leave in the near future to pursue 
politics back in her home country. 
 
On US-EU Relations 
--------------------- 
 
10. (C) Patten said managing transatlantic relations will 
remain a challenge no matter who wins in the US elections in 
November.  Patten said many Europeans disagree with US 
policies, but not American values -- but posited that even 
this could not be guaranteed in the long run.  In the post 
9/11 world, every European now has a horror story about US 
visa/border entry hassles -- either personally or someone 
they know.  The world's best and brightest, who traditionally 
went to the US to study and then stayed, are increasingly 
reluctant to do so -- a fact Patten said he hopes to 
capitalize on in his next job at Oxford University.   Besides 
border policies, Europeans simply don't understand American 
attitudes about guns.  For many of his countrymen in England, 
Patten suggested, Athens, Ohio is now more foreign than 
Athens, Greece.  And yes, Patten admitted, there are many 
European elites who resent the United States precisely 
because America did Europe so many favors over the preceding 
decades. 
 
11. (C) Still, Patten remains convinced that the EU will need 
to devote increased attention to transatlantic relations. 
That is why he pushed so hard to have a political appointee 
Ambassador selected for Washington (vice a Commission 
functionary).  Patten noted that it took 15 months to get 
John Bruton's nomination through the bureaucracy -- and 
suggested in the end it only happened because Bruton is a 
close personal friend of Manuel Barosso. 
 
12. (C) He advised the US to also re-think its relations with 
Europe.  In so doing, Patten suggested the US should tell the 
EU that America will only listen to European views if Europe 
is also ready to play a serious role in implementing the 
policies adopted.  He suggested the next US Administration 
approach Europe openly and say: we need this relationship, 
but what are you (Europe) going to contribute?  If the US 
goes down the multilateral road Europe wants, will there be 
any Europeans at the end of the path if the bullets begin to 
fly?  In a nutshell, he suggested the US should ask Europe 
("courteously, of course") to ante up.  Iran, he suggested, 
will be the next major test for the relationship.  The West 
needed carrots to offer the Iranians, but also needed sticks. 
 The Middle East is another area for more work, and Patten 
suggested the next US President needs to "look a little moreenergetic" in 
working the peace process. 
 
Scott