US embassy cable - 04BUENOSAIRES2866

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BUENOS AIRES 002866 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/BSC AND INR/RA 
NSC FOR TOM SHANNON AND MIKE DEMPSEY 
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, AR 
SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: POLLING THE POLLSTERS 
 
REF: BUENOS AIRES 02817 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Lino Gutierrez for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D) 
 
1. (C)  Summary: Poloff recently met with several of the 
leading Argentine pollsters to discuss their views on the 
image of the United States, public support for Kirchner, and 
the current political situation in Argentina.  Included in 
these meetings were Graciela Romer, Manuel Mora y Araujo, 
Marita Carballo, Enrique Puceiro, Hugo Haime, and Analia del 
Franco.  The polling experts ascribed the comparatively 
negative public opinion of the United States to past history 
and current policy disagreements, but argue the views are 
more a knee-jerk reaction than a deep-seated dislike of 
America and Americans.  Kirchner's approval ratings vary from 
pollster to pollster, but all agree he has lost a significant 
level of support over the past year.  They view the political 
situation as being in flux, with a divided opposition and a 
ruling Peronist Party (PJ) that has become more of a culture 
than a party.  Some pollsters see the traditional party 
system eventually being replaced by new center-left and 
center-right coalitions.  End Summary. 
 
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Public Opinion of United States Multifaceted 
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2. (C)  All of the pollsters attributed the poor image of the 
United States in Argentina to historical trends, a reaction 
to the policies of former President Carlos Menem, and 
disagreement with current US policy.  However, they feel 
these negative views do not translate into a rejection of US 
values or anger towards Americans.  They discussed at length 
with Poloff the reason the recent Latinbarometer poll found 
that only three in ten Argentines had a positive view of the 
United States, well below the regional average.  The 
pollsters pointed to Argentina's past trend of competing with 
the United States for regional leadership, the lack of 
knowledge of the U.S. in a country traditionally focused on 
relations with Europe, an association in the public's mind 
between the U.S. and the IMF's role in the 2001-2002 economic 
crisis, and a reaction to the "carnal relations" between the 
two countries associated with the now widely disliked Menem 
administration.  They argued that disagreements with current 
US policies in areas such as Iraq are also a source of 
negative feelings toward the United States, but are not as 
important as historical factors.  It is interesting to note 
that positive views of the U.S. only dropped eight points--38 
percent to 30 percent--between the 2002 Latinbarometer, 
completed before the Iraq war, and the 2003 Latinbarometer, 
taken after the war began.  However, the number of Argentines 
saying they had a good opinion of America dropped from 53 
percent just before the crisis in 2001 to 38 percent the 
following year, showing the impact of the economic crisis on 
the Argentine image of the U.S..  Marita Carballo of 
TNS-Gallup mentioned that throughout the economic crisis, her 
polls showed that Argentines blamed their own government 
primarily for the crisis, although the IMF and the U.S. were 
viewed as contributing agents. 
 
3.  (C)  When asked how to improve opinion of the U.S., all 
of the pollsters recommended an increase in exchanges, 
particularly at the non-governmental level, involving both 
countries' academic, scientific, business, and cultural 
communities.  The opinion experts felt that increasing the 
frequency of these exchanges, and the publicity they 
generate, would help break down the wall of ignorance that 
exists about the United States and demonstrate the positive 
aspects of the bilateral relationship.  Graciela Romer 
recommended a program to teach the best practices from the US 
Congress to assist the Argentine Congress in its current 
efforts to be more transparent.  The pollsters generally 
complimented the Embassy's efforts to build a stronger 
relationship between the two countries and felt these efforts 
would be reflected in improved polling numbers for the U.S. 
over time. 
 
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Kirchner's Approval Rating Depends on the Question 
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4.  (C)  President Nestor Kirchner's support level varies 
widely among the pollsters, depending on how they ask the 
question, but most have Kirchner's approval ratings between 
50 and 58 percent.  Kirchner tends to poll at least ten 
points higher on his personal image than on his performance 
as president.  Kirchner also does better when the question is 
asked as a two-option, approve or disapprove question, than 
he does if the question is asked with a more standard 
four-point or five-point scale.  For example, Puceiro's 
latest polling shows that 58 percent of Argentines think 
Kirchner is doing a good or very good job as president, with 
33 percent saying he is doing an average job.  However, when 
asked whether respondents approve or disapprove of Kirchner's 
job performance, without the option of a middle category, 78 
percent said they approved.  Graciela Romer had Kirchner's 
positive personal image at 55 percent, with 28 percent giving 
him an average personal rating.  For job performance, Romer's 
polling came in lower than the other pollsters, with 42 
percent saying Kirchner was doing a good job and 35 percent 
giving him an average rating.  Kirchner has higher ratings on 
his performance with the economy and foreign relations than 
he does with controlling crime and dealing with the 
piqueteros.  The pollsters lamented how their polls are 
frequently misquoted in the press, causing a great deal of 
confusion on Kirchner's actual approval rating.  Both Enrique 
Zuleta Puceiro and Analia del Franco vehemently denied the 
allegations made in the 21 August Noticias article that 
accused them of biasing their polling in favor of Kirchner. 
They argued the numbers used in the Noticias article were 
either wrong, or taken out of context.  (See Reftel) 
 
5.  (C)  The pollsters explained Kirchner's comparatively 
high approval rating as being a result of an improving 
economy, a favorable comparison with past presidents, a lack 
of viable alternatives, and the fact that he is seen as an 
individual seeking to change the system.  As Mora y Araujo 
put it, Kirchner is viewed by many as the man on the white 
horse in western movies that rides into town to take over for 
the corrupt and incompetent men that have been mismanaging 
things.  Kirchner's biggest challenges are the economy and 
crime and security issues.  Most of the polling experts were 
optimistic in the short term on the economy, although they 
generally attributed the economic improvements to a more 
favorable international situation than to Kirchner's decision 
making.  On crime and security, they felt the GOA lacked a 
clear strategy and was more focused on short-term strategies, 
rather than long-term needs, such as the complete overhaul of 
the Buenos Aires provincial police force.  Puceiro felt that 
Kirchner's support level would likely drop in the coming year 
because he would be forced to accept the PJ presidency in 
order to get the support from the PJ provincial party 
structure to make the gains he wants in the 2005 elections. 
By finally tying himself to the traditional Peronist 
structure, he will do permanent damage to his image as an 
outsider trying to clean up the system.  Most of the other 
pollsters agreed that Kirchner's approval ratings would 
continue to erode over the coming year, although they all 
felt there currently was no opposition leader on the horizon 
that could challenge Kirchner's top spot in the arena of 
public opinion.  Minister of the Economy Roberto Lavagna is 
the individual with the next highest approval rate, with 49 
percent of the population approving of the job he is doing in 
Puceiro's latest poll. 
 
 
 
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A Political System in Transition 
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6.  (C)  The pollsters described the political opposition as 
being in disarray, with some seeing an eventual end to the 
traditional party structure in Argentina.  All of the opinion 
analysts felt there currently is no well-organized political 
opposition outside of the PJ party.  Opposition figures like 
ARI leader Elisa Carrio, Recrear leader Ricardo Lopez Murphy, 
and Compromise for Change leader Mauricio Macri are merely 
figures without a national party structure, nor enough 
national appeal to directly challenge Kirchner.  The Radical 
Civil Union (UCR) party has a national party structure, but 
is too weak and divided to act as a real check on the GOA. 
Some pollsters, such as Graciela Romer, felt the PJ and UCR 
no longer represent the Argentine electorate.  For Romer, 
these traditional parties have become fractured, loose 
groupings that encompass individuals from mutually exclusive 
political points of view.  As Rosendo Fraga recently put it 
in a meeting with DCM and POLCOUNS, the PJ has become more of 
a culture than a political party.  The UCR has faced the 
brunt of these political changes over the past few years, as 
leading members of the party have left to form their own 
political organizations.  Romer felt the eventual fracturing 
of the PJ was also inevitable.  What she thought would 
replace the current political structure is a center-right and 
a center-left coalition.  (Comment:  Dr. Ruben Octavio 
Villan, who works with Mauricio Macri, recently gave Poloffs 
a similar prediction.  He felt what has happened in the 
Buenos Aires city politics, with leaders breaking off of the 
UCR and PJ to form their own political organizations, is a 
foreshadowing of what will eventually happen on a national 
stage.  It must be noted that none of our contacts, nor the 
Embassy, feel this scenario is likely to happen anytime in 
the near future.  End Comment)  The pollsters felt the main 
obstacles that impeded the formation of new opposition 
grouping are the egos of the opposition leaders, the negative 
association Argentines have with political alliances 
following the disastrous experience with former President de 
la Rua's coalition government, and Kirchner's high approval 
ratings.  Puceiro felt it was also impossible for leftist 
parties to develop because there was little political space 
between Kirchner and the piqueteros, who have high negatives 
among the public. 
 
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Comment 
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7.  (C)  Argentina has a well developed polling community, 
with several firms associated with major international 
research groups, such as TNS and Research International.  The 
pollsters are also excellent analysts of the Argentine 
political system and have proved to be an invaluable source 
of political reporting for the Embassy.  All of them are 
doing work for one or more political parties or figures, 
giving them access to interesting information on political 
strategy and negotiations.  We will continue to maintain 
close contact with them as we look toward the 2005 election. 
GUTIERREZ